The Quebec byelection in a bellwether riding that has voted for every party in the 93 years since it was created, should ring alarm bells for the federal Liberals.
By SHEILA COPPS
First published in The Hill Times on June 25, 2018.
OTTAWA—Smart politicians make course corrections.
Byelections and provincial trends often provide the impetus for political redirection.
So what is the takeaway from last week’s Quebec byelection and the recent tectonic shift in Ontario politics?
In both instances, there was a shift away from Liberals and towards Conservatives.
But they may actually result in completely different impacts on federal politics.
The Quebec byelection in a bellwether riding that has voted for every party in the 93 years since it was created, should ring alarm bells for the federal Liberals.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently edged ahead of his Conservative opposition in public opinion polls, but the Quebec jury is still out.
The last time a Conservative was elected in the riding was in 1997, when André Harvey, who had served under prime minister Brian Mulroney, returned to politics.
Harvey subsequently left the Tories, sat as an Independent, and then joined the Liberals.
Since his time, the riding has actually mimicked the national wave, electing a representative from every single political party. The only Chicoutimi loyalty is to trends, the riding switched from the Bloc, to the New Democrats, to the Liberals in a single decade. The significance of its return to the Tory fold should not be underestimated.
Nor should it be overblown. The popularity of former hockey coach and political junkie Richard Martel is without challenge. When the sitting Liberal announced his resignation, it appeared as though the local Conservative organizers were quicker on the draw.
In a byelection, the stature of a local candidate is far greater important than in a general election. Just look at the number of popular Liberals dumped in the Ontario vote. Local candidates don’t count for many votes in a general election.
So the question mark about Conservative leader Andrew Scheer in Quebec has not yet been answered. But the strength of his party’s local organization has.
By normal standards, as the retiree was a Liberal, the governing party should have had the time and foresight to land a big fish as their candidate.
Instead, the official opposition won that battle.
This Liberal misstep could be a reflection of the lack of federal Liberal organizational depth in eastern Quebec.
If the Liberals are poorly organized, the fate of the New Democrats is even more troubling. Having carried the seat in the Jack Layton orange wave only two elections ago, this time the party did not even secure their deposit.
The NDP joined the Bloc Québécois, in the single digits, raising questions about the winnability factor. That is deadly in Quebec.
Unlike other parts of the country, most Quebec voters have a tendency to vote with the trend. It is no mistake that Chicoutimi electors have copied the winning wave for the past two decades.
This is good news for the Conservatives, but not so much for anyone else.
However, the Conservative win in Ontario could have a perverse effect of helping the federal Liberals.
Ontarians are suspicious about investing too much power in one political ideology. So when they choose Tories in Toronto, they swing to Liberals in Ottawa.
The provincial New Democrats official opposition status will attract Ottawa back room talent, depleting human resources needed by the federal party to rebuild.
Former leader Tom Mulcair suggested in a media appearance last week that Jagmeet Singh’s popularity would grow once people get to know him. According to Mulcair, Singh’s rise in visibility would not happen without a seat in the House of Commons.
But the leader cannot afford to run and lose, so he will likely be sidelined until next year’s election, with potentially precipitous consequences.
Meanwhile, Trudeau has made some bold moves to woo the West, including the pipeline purchase and marijuana legislation.
Those successes will pay dividends in Alberta and British Columbia, but neither province is likely to carry the Grits back to power. Instead, the prime minister needs to pay attention to his home base and parts east.
Conventional wisdom says the native son always has an edge in Quebec, which should favour Trudeau.
But if modern day politics has taught us anything, the only certainty is uncertainty.
A clean sweep in Atlantic Canada is not likely to recur. Current Maritime polling favours the Tories.
With Quebec softening, and a rumble afoot in Ontario, Atlantic Canada could prove to be the Grit bastion that must not be breached.
Byelections can be the canary in the mine.
Trudeau and the Liberals need to heed the messages this canary is sending.
Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.
