Trudeau needs to target two key demographics for victory: women and youth

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Political observers may downplay the importance of a women’s budget. But those of us who witnessed the equality stall under Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper aren’t likely to let it happen again.

By SHEILA COPPS

First published on March 5, 2018 in The Hill Times.

 

OTTAWA—The Colour Purple was a novel chronicling the life of poor, black American women in the 1930s.

It took on a new meaning with the creation of the Red Hat Society back in 1998. Created in California, the society has a membership of 70,000 women around the world. Most are older, although the original minimum age limitation of 50-plus was ultimately abandoned.

Red Hat rationale was based on a poem by Jenny Joseph, which begins: “When I am an old woman, I shall wear purple, with a red hat that doesn’t go and doesn’t suit me.”

The notion that red and purple can be worn together is liberating for women. For once, we are not bowing to convention, with matching purses, shoes, and hats.

Advancing age was the original raison d’etre, when an old red hat was purchased at a thrift store in honour of a friend’s 55th birthday. The message, grow older on your own terms.

I first heard the poem at a commemoration service for a dynamic Hamilton woman who lost her battle with cancer. The poem stayed with me. It also inspired me to love the clashing hues of red and purple and to make sure that purple was a beloved colour in my own wardrobe.

So the purple markings on the recent federal budget document were designed to appeal to the government’s most important target group, women.

Recent polling has the Liberals still running first, but the Conservatives under Andrew Scheer are getting a little too close for comfort.

The spike in Conservative popularity is largely driven by support from middle-aged men. Women, on the other hand, prefer the governing Liberals by an astonishing margin of almost 20 per cent.

By launching a feminist budget to solidify that support, Justin Trudeau’s government is setting the stage for what it hopes will be another majority government.

Some elements which could influence the electoral outcome are beyond control. The Ontario election, looming in three months, could have an impact on federal voting patterns.

If Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne manages to get re-elected, it will definitely make things tougher for the federal Liberals next year.

That may seem counterintuitive to the average voter but, historically, Ontarians often select opposing parties on the federal and provincial scene to promote a balance of interests.

It was only when the Tories stopped being progressive under premier Mike Harris that their iron-clad grip on provincial politics wavered.

Likewise, the Liberals and the Conservatives will also be influenced by what happens to the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party.

The current firestorm in the Bloc is actually good news for Trudeau because separatist infighting paves the way for unlikely Grit victories in the heart of nationalist Quebec. That trend was obvious when the Liberals scored an unlikely by election victory in Saguenay last October.

Jagmeet Singh has not exactly set the political world on fire since he won the NDP leadership. His personal popularity is in the single digits, which is bad news for his party and good news for the Grits. When election day arrives next year, wavering New Democrats are more likely to park their support temporarily with Trudeau than risk another right-wing revolution.

Which gets us to the two key demographics that Trudeau needs to target for victory, women and youth.

The early decision to appoint an equal number of women and men to cabinet made global news, vaulting Trudeau to the title of feminist prime minister.

Most women are excited to witness strong articulate women on the government front benches, from the foreign minister to the justice minister, from health to employment, workforce development and labour, there is plenty of woman power around the cabinet table.

That makes all women proud, especially those of an age who can easily wear purple and red together.

While pollsters may underestimate the importance of a budget building toward equality, that theme will appeal to potential female voters. Gender equity will not be overlooked by women at the ballot box.

The budget delivered $600,000 for the creation of a new Statistics Canada division on Gender, Diversity, and Inclusion Statistics.

The sum is not enormous but it will ensure that statistical data is gathered, and resulting reports will keep the issue front and centre on the national political agenda.

Political observers may downplay the importance of a women’s budget. But those of us who witnessed the equality stall under Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper aren’t likely to let it happen again.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.