As well as preparing for his own future in an Alberta byelection, Pierre Poilievre will be using the season to reinforce his level of support among the rank and file in preparation for a review vote at the party’s national convention next January in Calgary. It’s going to be a long, hot summer.
By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on June 23, 2025.
OTTAWA—The summer barbecue circuit will take on new meaning for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre this year.
As well as preparing for his own future in an Alberta byelection, Poilievre will be using the season to reinforce his level of support among the rank and file in preparation for a review vote at the party’s national convention next January in Calgary.
On the surface, it appears as though Poilievre’s survival should be a no-brainer. In the last election, his party increased popular support and elected more members, which is usually the measure of any leader’s success.
But in this instance, the lead held by the Conservatives had been so large for so long that most party members were expecting to be celebrating their return to government.
The dramatic drop in support during the campaign, in addition to the leader’s loss of the riding he had held for two decades, put Poilievre in double jeopardy.
Battle River-Crowfoot MP Damien Kurek resigned last week to pave the way for the re-entry of Poilievre into Parliament. The MP had to be installed for a minimum of 30 days before he could resign.
After a member’s resignation, the Speaker must inform the country’s chief electoral officer about the vacancy. Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised to move quickly to call a byelection. But the chief electoral officer must wait 11 days before any move can be made.
If the prime minister moves quickly, Poilievre could be facing an August byelection.
Meanwhile, Poilievre remains in the Stornoway digs that were offered up by Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer.
Some senior Conservatives privately questioned why the leader didn’t simply move out for a few months to avoid the controversy of remaining in Stornoway without status as official opposition leader.
Instead Poilievre was offered the house after he appointed Scheer to take over as official opposition leader. There appears to be no prohibition in Scheer’s decision to offer the official opposition residence to Poilievre and his family. If the offer were made in return for Scheer’s nomination as the interim official opposition leader, that could definitely be a problem.
Neither the outgoing Alberta MP Kurek nor Scheer can be offered anything from Poilievre in return for their sacrifices.
Likewise, Poilievre has been facing more negative polling numbers in the weeks following the election.
That is to be expected as the Carney government has been enjoying the usual honeymoon period.
But the sharp 10-point drop in numbers has left some Tories speechless.
In a scrum following a Tory caucus meeting, Scheer ran away from a CTV News reporter, claiming an urgent phone call.
As for phones, Poilievre has been working them himself to shore up support, particularly reaching out to social media influencers who were actively promoting the Conservatives during the election.
Members of Parliament have rallied around Poilievre, but they have not had much time to process the negative post-election numbers facing the party leader.
Back home to their ridings this week, they will be getting lots of feedback from constituents about the party’s future.
Hardcore Conservatives are still staunchly behind Poilievre, but those who are more progressive will be telling the party to move toward the centre if they have any hope of defeating the Liberals in an election that could potentially happen within the next two years.
A deeper dive into those numbers will also remind people that Poilievre himself is less popular than his party, which could create further pressure on his survival.
When the party votes on the leader next January, people will be looking at the margin of victory.
In past reviews by the Progressive Conservatives, the leader was expected to get more than two-thirds of the vote or resign. In 1983, former prime minister Joe Clark got two-thirds of party support at a second leadership review. The number was virtually identical to a previous vote two years earlier, but Clark felt the mandate was not strong enough and he launched a leadership race.
The race he provoked, ended up costing his job, with Brian Mulroney defeating him at a party convention Clark called later that year.
Poilievre won’t be making that mistake. But there will definitely be some backroom players making the case for change.
The party’s poor showing in Atlantic Canada and Quebec haunts Poilievre. Quebecers hate to lose, so expect local organizers to drum up anti-Poilievre sentiment.
It will be a long, hot summer for the Conservative leader, campaigning across the country for his survival.
Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.
