By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on November 13, 2023.

OTTAWA—The Ontario Liberal Party race went nuclear last week.

Just after a spirited candidates’ debate in Ottawa, two campaign teams announced they were joining forces in an attempt to beat front-runner, former Liberal MP and Mississauga Mayor, Bonnie Crombie.

Former Ontario Attorney-General and now Liberal MP Yasir Naqvi joined forces with fellow federal Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith in an attempt to deliver a one-two punch to Crombie.

On Nov. 9, just two weeks before voting begins, the pair held a press conference in front of Queen’s Park to deliver their message.

Each is calling upon his supporters to choose the other as their second choice in the single-person ranked ballot system. Both MPs believe they have much in common, and that either would make a better choice to beat Premier Doug Ford than Crombie.

Their agreement announcement said that the “Ontario Liberals will be best positioned to beat Doug Ford by electing a principled, pragmatic and Liberal leader.”

The statement about a “Liberal leader” was designed to remind prospective voters about an early error in the Crombie campaign, when the candidate said she would open up certain areas of the environmentally protected Greenbelt to developers. Crombie has since recanted that position, and promised to leave the protected areas untouched.

But throughout the lengthy campaign, opponents have attempted to portray the front-runner as Ford lite, noting that some of the same developers who are supporting her mayoralty race have also donated to Ford.

The Naqvi and Erskine-Smith’s statement characterized Crombie (without naming her) as “leadership … vulnerable to the same criticisms as the Ford Conservatives—their political baggage, priorities and donors.”

One other candidate has already left the race. Adil Shamji, a provincial Liberal MPP and former physician, threw his support behind Crombie.

A fourth candidate, Ted Hsu, is the only one who currently sits in the provincial legislature. He said on social media that he was approached about the deal, but turned it down because he believes members should have free votes and the party should be beyond deal-making.

For her party, Crombie said she was hoping to be Liberals’ first choice because she has the fundraising and organization skills to help the party win in 2026. She was turning the fundraising questions into a positive as the party is currently in third place in the legislature, and needs cash to be competitive in the next election.

Crombie has already raised more than double the amount of money donated to the combined campaigns of Naqvi and Erskine-Smith.

Full disclosure: I have publicly supported Crombie as leader. The move to join forces was not unexpected. Most leadership campaigns evolve into an anybody-but-the-frontrunner towards the end of the race. The election that saw Stéphane Dion become federal Liberal Party leader was an ‘anybody-but’ movement. In that leadership it was anybody but Bob Rae or Michael Ignatieff, the two front-runners.

Negative karma drove a lot of voters into the arms of Gerard Kennedy and Dion. Dion started the race with only 16 per cent of the vote, but he ended up winning by making a deal with Gerard Kennedy for support.

Deals are usually made quietly in the background. Last week’s announcement was intended to garner maximum media attention.

The public strategy is risky for Naqvi and Erskine-Smith as too much internal fighting could cost them politically. Some Liberals won’t appreciate the attacks on Crombie’s weaknesses, and others may not like being told how to vote. The public nature of the deal may hurt both candidates’ future if Crombie does win.

But in one sense, it was a risk they had to take. As the sale of new memberships is now over, all the candidates have a pretty good handle on their standing in the pack.

And it is highly likely that Crombie is outpacing all of them by a good margin. Last week’s coalition was a do-or-die move for both men. It may not deliver them the leadership, but doing nothing would be equally costly.

If Crombie has enough support to win a majority of votes on the first counting of the ballots, it is a moot point.

If not, the ranking of candidates does have an impact as this will be a vote by all in a preferential ballot. Once the first vote is counted, the candidate with the fewest supporters drops off, and voters’ choices for second and third are then reallocated for a second count.

This Liberal duo is counting on ranked ballots to take one of them over the top.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

An internal Liberal fight in Ottawa Centre would sap the strength of party volunteers, and definitely cut into the enthusiasm of key election workers. It would also help the NDP.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on July 12, 2021.

OTTAWA—Inside party politics you find the toughest fight of all.

Last week, I wrote about some rumours flying around about the surprise departure of popular Liberal cabinet minister Catherine McKenna.

Turns out those rumours were wrong. The last time McKenna, Liberal guru Gerald Butts, and former bank governor Mark Carney were in the same room was at a European negotiating session on climate change.

They did not break bread in Ottawa recently, nor did they hatch a plan to have Carney replace McKenna and vice-versa.

The story came from other insiders in the Ottawa Centre political world.

McKenna left with the intention to spend more time with her family and to work on her passion for climate change, in whatever shape that might take.

She has previous experience in international negotiations so it is natural that she might consider something on the global stage. However, she did not, nor would she entertain, an offer to switch jobs with Carney.

So how did the rumour start?

The interest in taking a shot at the vacant seat is not surprising.

The Liberals are running high in the polls and the Ottawa Centre seat has been considered among the safer seats in the country. Former provincial attorney general Yasir Naqvi has already announced his intention to run for the Liberal nomination.

There was a tremendous amount of internal support for his decision, and he moved quickly to block the path of a potential chosen candidate like Carney.

Carney is certainly entitled to pursue the nomination if he chooses. But in a political city like Ottawa, many local executive members have already backed Naqvi against an outsider.

Carney actually lives in Ottawa, so the accusation of parachute would not actually stick.

And parenthetically, the NDP would be hard-pressed to claim interloper status because at one point, Ottawa’s mayor Marion Dewar, and mother of beloved Paul Dewar, actually became the NDP MP for Hamilton Mountain.

After McKenna’s unexpected announcement, the New Democratic Party has its eye on the prize as well. Within hours, the NDP made it clear that this is now a riding in their potential win column.

Historically, the riding has flipped between Liberals and New Democrats federally and provincially.

And with the possible exception of Ottawa-Vanier, there is no other Ottawa-area riding where the New Democrats even come in second.

So, they will be strategic and pour their considerable human resources into the open riding in the heart of the capital.

The other thing that separates the New Democrats from the Liberals is that party in-fighting on the left is less prevalent.

That is partly because they usually are not fighting to form government.

But their origins in the labour movement also promote a belief in solidarity, with all for one and one for all.

In the Liberal Party, there is a tendency for the insiders to take many sides.

In the last municipal election, even though there were no party labels on candidates, the New Democrats threw all their support behind one candidate in Capital Ward.

The Liberals split their votes in two, thus managing to ensure that New Democratic Shawn Menard emerged as a winner.

The NDP work as a combined team on education, municipal, provincial, and federal politics.

They will do their best to jump on the opportunity created by the McKenna vacuum.

Liberals must work hard to remain united.

An internal nomination division runs the risk of creating enmities with the party that could be costly.

In that scenario, a united New Democratic organization could close the huge gap that existed in the last election.

When McKenna defeated Dewar in 2015, it was by the slimmest of margins. He was a hugely effective local member, and she was a newbie.

Her margin was only five per cent in a Liberal majority sweep. But a testament to McKenna’s own work ethic and popularity was the 2019 result, where she led her NDP opponent by almost 20 points.

Her work in the environment and tireless commitment to the riding stood her in good stead, and she seemed unbeatable.

All that has changed, and it would behoove the Liberals to remember Julius Caesar’s motto regarding “divide and conquer.”

An internal fight would sap the strength of party volunteers, and definitely cut into the enthusiasm of key election workers.

On what appears to be the eve of an election, Ottawa Centre Liberals need to come together to carry the seat.

Without McKenna in Ottawa Centre, anything is possible.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Catherine McKenna may still get to Brookfield, but Mark Carney’s political future is much cloudier. In the absence of a clear nomination, Carney may simply accept the prime minister’s offer to act as an economic recovery adviser. Like hell, the path to politics is paved with good intentions.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on July 5, 2021.

OTTAWA—Catherine McKenna’s surprise retirement announcement last week sent shock waves through Liberal land.

First was the Sunday tweet which set the stage for her widely anticipated Monday morning announcement.

Then was the announcement, which clarified her reasons for stepping down and her avowed intention to keep working in the field where she made her mark as environment minister.

McKenna made it very clear she wants to pursue her passion for climate action outside the political sphere, potentially on the international scene.

And she certainly did not hide her support for a potential successor, giving a shout-out to former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.

Carney was also referenced in newspaper articles surrounding McKenna’s retirement.

McKenna herself offered up an observation about her friendship with the current vice-chair of Brookfield Asset Management and United Nations special envoy on climate action and finance.

Carney recently published a book entitled, Value(s): Building a Better World for All, usually a portend of political interest.

He was also a keynote at the virtual Liberal national convention in April, fuelling rumours that his next foray would be into the federal election as a Liberal.

To most of us, his move into McKenna’s seat was a foregone conclusion.

But then political reality stepped in.

Local Ottawa Liberals were circulating a story that McKenna’s departure was part of a master plan conceived by Canada’s modern rainmaker Gerald Butts.

Political chess moves were allegedly discussed at weekend dinner amongst the three, where it was decided that McKenna and Carney would switch roles.

Carney would run in Ottawa Centre while McKenna would move to Brookfield focusing on green infrastructure investment.

On the face of it, the plan seemed brilliant. The party had already been polling to find out what riding would be a good fit for Carney.

One of the possibilities was the Carleton seat, which would pit Carney against Conservative Pierre Poilievre, a tough fight for a Liberal. The incumbent beat popular Liberal challenger Chris Rodgers by almost 6,000 votes in 2019.

Ottawa Centre is a much safer seat, where Liberals won the last election by more than 15,000 votes against a putative star New Democratic Party candidate.

The Carney coronation was lacking one critical element, support by local Liberals.

Not a single member of McKenna’s executive was aware of the minister’s pending departure. Neither did they know about the possible parachuting of Carney into the riding.

The majority of locals had other ideas.

Former Ontario attorney general and provincial MPP, Yasir Naqvi, had kept his political network intact after losing in the provincial massacre inflicted by Conservatives under the leadership of Doug Ford.

Naqvi has just completed a two-year term as CEO of the Institute for Canadian Citizenship, but his love of politics has not waned.

Nor have his close ties to the riding and to the Liberal Party.

But he is also a political realist. When Naqvi learned of McKenna’s departure, he said he would not be a candidate if it was the prime minister’s intention to anoint Carney.

Naqvi spent the hours following McKenna’s announcement seeking advice from every single person on the federal and provincial riding association executives.

To his surprise, not a single member of either inner circle had been apprised of McKenna’s prospective departure. There was zero groundswell of support for a transplant into Ottawa Centre.

Naqvi also made overtures to the leader’s office and was informed that there would be no coronation in the riding.

With the solid backing of local Liberals, two days after the McKenna announcement, Naqvi announced he was in.

And the response was raucous.

Naqvi has already started building a campaign team and made it clear he was not going to be stymied by the potential arrival of a star candidate.

Naqvi told the media he was just looking for a fair and equitable nomination process, which he could win in a heartbeat.

Against this backdrop it is highly unlikely that Carney will contest the nomination.

He may look elsewhere, including the greater Toronto area, but the window for an uncontested nomination with local riding support is getting smaller.

The Liberals have already formally entered election mode, which allows nominations to be called without the same rigour as a non-writ process.

McKenna may still get to Brookfield, but Carney’s political future is much cloudier.

In the absence of a clear nomination, Carney may simply accept the prime minister’s offer to act as an economic recovery adviser.

Like hell, the path to politics is paved with good intentions.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.