If Kamala Harris can make the case for her economic plan, and if Donald Trump’s insults are caught on tape, she might continue her positive trajectory.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 9, 2024.

OTTAWA–All eyes are on Philadelphia, Penn., as this week’s U.S. presidential campaign debate pits former president Donald Trump against Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Harris’ background as a prosecutor should stand her in good stead in terms of clarity and focus. Trump’s tendency to ramble on with snippets of thought on multiple issues will not shine in a debate format where there is a two-way conversation.

But it is difficult to predict the outcome as the majority of media pressure seems to be focused on Harris as a first-time candidate.

Much attention has been paid to Harris’ first interview on CNN with her vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz. That interview, by Dana Bash, was not very hard-hitting, as the questions appeared designed to support the Harris candidacy, not challenge it.

As far as Canadians are concerned, the vast majority think Harris already has the election in the bag, and they support her. An Abacus survey last month showed that Harris has made a favourable impression on Canadians, with 48 per cent having a positive impression, while 21 per cent holding a negative viewpoint.

Trump is in the opposite situation, as 61 per cent of Canadians hold a negative impression of him—50 per cent hold a very negative impression. Only 24 per cent have a positive impression.

But the Canadian perspective is not what counts here, as we don’t have a horse in that race. Canucks have a hard time understanding why Trump is popular south of the border because, if the vote were being held in Canada, there would be no question that Harris would clobber him.

Not surprisingly, the only province reflective of the American trend is Alberta, where 33 per cent hold a negative impression of the current vice-president. The Harris negatives and positives in Alberta are statistically equal.

That parallels the finding that the majority of Liberal and New Democratic Party supporters in Alberta have a positive viewpoint of Harris.

Tories’ negative and positive numbers in that province are equal, while 68 per cent of Liberals and 65 per cent of New Democrats feel positively about Harris.

Abacus findings are similar to those of other polling organizations that have consistently found more Canadians support the American vice-president than the former president.

Polling by Angus Reid reflected a gender trend that appears to be mirrored south of the border, as well.

According to a mid-August poll, two-thirds of Canadians have a favourable view of Harris, with women being her strongest supporters.

Older women were most numerous in their support for the vice-president with almost 80 per cent claiming a positive impression of the Democratic candidate. Older men were positive, too.

But, as in the United States, Harris’ biggest obstacle is winning over men under the age of 55. Some 40 per cent of this Canadian cohort described Harris unfavourably, calling her dishonest, arrogant, or corrupt.

Despite those naysayers, most Canadians believe that Harris will win the American presidential campaign, according to another recent poll by Nik Nanos.

Last March, Nanos polling showed the majority thought Trump would beat President Joe Biden. A swing of 24 per cent in the Democrats favour has propelled those numbers away from a Republican prediction of victory

But Canadians’ support of Harris does not translate south of the border.

The unique role of the electoral college means the popular vote counts less than where the vote is cast. Somewhat similar to a Canadian system where a candidate could win the popular vote and lose the election, a presidential candidate must exceed 270 electoral college votes in order to win the election.

Even with Harris’ increase in the popular vote compared to incumbent U.S. President Biden, the electoral college splits put the election decision on a knife’s edge.

The tight race increases the importance of this week’s debate. If Harris can make the case for her economic plan and Trump’s insults are caught on tape, she might continue her positive trajectory.

If she makes mistakes that can be magnified by the Trump campaign, her post-convention momentum could be stopped in its tracks.

My money is on Harris. I am in that group of older Canadian women—four in five of us—who have great hope for the election of the first Black woman as president of the United States.

Harris has constantly been underestimated, including during her work behind the scenes as Biden’s vice-president.

She also has plenty of experience in taking on bullies, including California prosecutorial experience and the fight against America’s big banks.

A debate victory could be her ticket to the White House.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

The boost in polling that Democrats have enjoyed since U.S. President Joe Biden dropped out of the race would not be shared by the Liberals if Justin Trudeau were to do the same.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 2, 2024.

OTTAWA–The post-Biden bump for the Democrats in the United States has not passed unnoticed in Canada.

One of the first questions asked of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the summer cabinet meeting in Halifax last week was just that: Could the Liberals get a similar bump if the prime minister were to step down, and the voters were presented with a different face at the head of the party?

Trudeau sidestepped the question, and continued to insist that his job was to “be there to invest in Canadians.” But his close friend and cabinet colleague Marc Miller did say that robust conversations were taking place within the confines of the caucus, without public disclosure.

Other ministers, including potential leadership candidates Mélanie Joly and Chrystia Freeland, were quick to support the prime minister’s leadership. But the party is roiling, as ministers and Members of Parliament seek their own Canadian bump.

It has been a year since the Conservative lead entered into double-digit territory, and nothing the government does seems to narrow that gap. But the notion of a parallel result if Trudeau were to resign is misdirected.

First of all, the hike for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has resulted in an increase of three to four per cent for her party.

Three to four per cent in Canada would not be enough to return to government, as the current polling differential between the Liberals and the Conservatives is much higher.

The United States is essentially a two-party system, so a small shift can make or break a victory. Even an independent with the name recognition of Robert Kennedy Jr. managed only six per cent support at the apex of his campaign. It is doubtful that six per cent would even follow him into an election. Now that he has thrown his support behind Republican candidate Donald Trump, his supporters will probably split between the two main parties.

Also, a two-party system lends itself to a smooth transition. In the U.S. case, the Democrats were able to replace U.S. President Joe Biden with Harris without a full leadership convention because opponents were edged out by the current vice-president.

The fact that she would have replaced Biden in the event of a presidential illness or incapacity made it simpler to rally around her at a national convention less than three months from the election.

In Trudeau’s case, his succession would trigger a full leadership process. Contrary to some media reports, Mark Carney is not a putative leader in waiting. There are several current cabinet ministers who have been quietly setting the stage for their own leadership ambitions.

Pundits would suggest that it is better to have someone from outside the current crop of politicians, and Carney certainly has a polished Canadian and international pedigree. But the Liberal Party’s previous experience with global pedigree has not been positive.

Michael Ignatieff is a brilliant scholar with a renowned global reputation who was supposed to be the party’s saviour. Instead, he was quickly rejected as someone who came back to Canada only to run for office. Carney has declined multiple offers to run for office, and that doesn’t sit well with those working in the trenches.

While the public may be tired of Trudeau, the party’s volunteer base is actively working to explain why his leadership and the current government are worth supporting.

The checklist is long for Liberals. National childcare, dental care, pharmacare and school lunch programs send a message that the party is working for all the people.

But the government has been telling that story for several months, and so far, it seems to be falling on deaf ears. Party members are ready for a leadership change, but also realize that the decision is in the hands of the prime minister.

Meanwhile, from François-Philippe Champagne to Dominic LeBlanc, many are weighing their future chances. Former parliamentarian Frank Baylis, who sold his heart-device business for $1.75-billion in 2021, is also actively assessing a potential campaign for the top job.

Baylis, son of a Barbadian immigrant, served in Trudeau’s government for one term, from 2015 to 2019, as the member of parliament for multicultural Pierrefonds-Dollard in Montreal, Que. If successful, he would be the party’s first non-white leader.

All of the foregoing means Liberals will not follow the American example and force out their leader. Multiple candidates are already planning their own robust campaigns, so there would be no shoo-in for Carney.

No huge bump, and multiple candidates rule out a smooth post-Trudeau transition in Canada.

Vive le Canada.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

The Republican convention scenario could not have been scripted better if it had been written in Hollywood. 

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on July 22, 2024.

OTTAWA—What a difference a day makes. Donald Trump now appears unbeatable.

Even senior Democrats are reported to have quietly conceded the election which has the younger congressional leaders like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez seeing red.

The Republican convention scenario could not have been scripted better if it had been written in Hollywood.

The week leading up to the four-day love-in in Milwaukee, Wisc., was awash with negative news about the mental acuity of U.S. President Joe Biden. Numerous Democrats, including at least 17 members of Congress, came out publicly calling for the president to step aside in time to secure a replacement for the November vote.

Then, there was an attempted assassination attempt on Trump on July 13.

Trump himself said the bullet would have struck, but at the last minute he turned his head to review details of a graph on immigration that had been exhibited as part of his presentation.

That subtle shift saved his life, and the bullet intended for him instead hit and killed a former fire chief. News reports said Corey Comperatore used his own body to shield his wife and family from the attack.

His last words were “Get down,” before Comperatore was struck dead by a bullet intended for the former president.

His wife, who described her husband as a hero, refused to take a call from President Biden after the attack. Instead she said her husband was a lifelong Republican, and he wouldn’t have wanted her to talk to Biden.

Even the previously absent Melania Trump was part of the narrative. Within hours of the attack, she penned a long letter suggesting that it was time for all Americans to rally around the theme of unity.

“A monster who recognized my husband as an inhuman political machine attempted to ring out Donald’s passion—his laughter, ingenuity, love of music and inspiration. … Donald, the generous and caring man I have been with through the best and the worst of times.”

Even Melania sensed this was a historical moment for Trump. Expect to see her at his side soon even though, notwithstanding her penmanship, she has been absent from all his recent trials, travails, and campaign trails.

But she obviously understood the import of the failed assassination attempt.

“The winds of change have arrived. For those of you who cry in support, I thank you. I commend those of you who have reached beyond the political divide—thank you for remembering that every single politician is a man or woman with a loving family.”

While Americans were rallying around Trump, Canadian premiers were gathered for their usual annual whine fest.

This year’s theme was “federal creep.”

According to premiers, they are unhappy with the fact the national government is bypassing them to get municipal housing agreements to kickstart construction in the midst of a housing crisis.

Why would the federal government waste time to partner with the provinces who are largely responsible for the current shortage of available, affordable housing?

They inherited the social housing file with plenty of cash from the federal government in a transfer of responsibility that happened almost 40 years ago.

Since the transfer, social housing momentum has stalled in many provinces. Ontario has received billions of dollars for housing with very little new construction to show for it.

At their annual meeting last week in Halifax, the provinces also attacked national dental care as another infringement on their authority.

They would not dare touch medicare because it is deeply entrenched and valued by Canadians.

But that didn’t stop premiers from also opposing the federal government’s promise to establish a national school food program.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford told a press conference that his province is feeding many more children with fewer dollars than the proposed federal program.

The Council of the Federation meeting was not surprising as every year provincial premiers get together to demand more money with less accountability.

The council was formed on Dec. 5, 2003. In its founding document, it acknowledges that Canada was created in 1867. But beyond that, they don’t even include a Canadian flag in its circular flag logo.

They complain about duplication, but there is no reason why a country with only 39 million people cannot have a school lunch program, dental care, medicare and childcare.

Maybe the premiers need to upload some responsibilities, and get out of the way.

Canadians need and want a national vision for Canada.

Now more than ever.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Trudeau’s tenure is brief but he needs to weigh his legacy against the risk of losing it all. Quite a balancing act.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on July 15, 2024.

Politics is a disease for which there is no vaccination.

How else to explain the reason why politicians have such a hard time retiring?

Most people count down the days until they can stop working. But U.S. President Joe Biden is 81 years old, and still refuses to entertain the idea of getting out.

Ditto for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau has accomplished extraordinary things during his decade in power, which have even his enemies damning him with faint praise.

Norman Spector recently tweeted that Trudeau had been “the most consequential prime minister in his lifetime.” He went on to say Trudeau was even more consequential than his father. That praise was tempered by adding “more decades than I have left will have to pass to know whether the massive changes he’s precipitated are making Canada a better country—or destroying it.”

Trudeau put Indigenous issues on the agenda with more investments and legislative change to support reconciliation than any prime minister in history.

He also introduced nationally accessible child care, dental care and pharmacare, permanently hiked seniors’ pensions, and launched a national school lunch program initiative during the quickest economic recovery in the G8.

Quite a record for a decade which included two years of focussed attention on a worldwide once-in-a-century pandemic.

So why don’t either of these accomplished men want to exit with their heads held high?

To paraphrase former Ontario premier Ernie Eves, the worst day in politics is better than the best day on Bay Street.

Outsiders may think it is hubris that keeps politicians going. But they would be wrong.

The capacity for societal change lands squarely in the lap of politicians, and they know how much their work can actually be the agent for change.

Trudeau understands that his vision will not likely be shared by any successor, whether it be from his own party or the Conservatives.

Biden has devoted his life to fighting for the workers, and he wants to continue that work.

It is up to those closest to these leaders to guide them in the right direction.

In Trudeau’s case, following his separation from Sophie Grégoire last summer, he won’t be getting any pillow-talk counsel. He may be hearing from his children, but their youthful wisdom may not parallel advice from close adults.

Biden is obviously getting an earful from his partner Jill Biden, and his adult children. They are pushing him to stay even though his public performances and aging issues have become the dominant theme on the eve of his presidential re-election fight.

Donald Trump is chomping at the bit, hoping to bait Biden into another encounter since the first debate was so damaging to the Democrats.

Senior Democrats are working on the Biden family to convince them that keeping Joe in the job will end up destroying his legacy, not enhancing it.

Senior Liberals are not able to work on family members who can exercise a considerable amount of influence. Instead, they are reaching out to the inner circle of Trudeau’s key advisers.

That group seems to believe that the prime minister’s campaign prowess will carry him through the current travails.

His chief of staff has been working the back rooms of leadership since she was at Queen’s Park with then-Premier Kathleen Wynne. Katie Telford was there in the 2014 election when Wynne was supposed to lose. Instead, she turned it around and Liberals served one more term in provincial government.

Telford’s job also depends on Trudeau staying, so it may be understandable that she sees possible redemption on the campaign trail.

But Wynne’s second try in 2018 was a disaster with the leader announcing her own retirement days before the campaign ended. The party ended up losing status with few seats, and the worst defeat in Ontario political history.

Telford was not responsible for that debacle, as the campaign was run by David Herle, former adviser to prime minister Paul Martin who led Martin back to the wilderness in 2006.

But Telford understands political history.

Every leader cares about the direction in which they take their country. But at some point, even consequential leadership loses its lustre.

The power of political change is inevitable especially in the post-information age.

In Biden’s case, he has admirably served his country for 52 years. He can leave with his head held high.

In comparison, Trudeau’s tenure is brief, but he needs to weigh his legacy against the risk of losing it all.

Quite a balancing act.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Joe Biden is banking on the fact that Donald Trump’s daily one-liners will be overshadowed by the substance required to sustain a full debate. 

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May 20, 2024.

OTTAWA—The next American election doesn’t happen until November.

But the first debate will happen on June 27 on CNN.

This historically early showdown was shaped through a social media exchange.

U.S. President Joe Biden launched the debate challenge in a video on X—formerly Twitter—where he accused Donald Trump of avoiding debates against his Republican challengers.

“Donald Trump lost two debates in 2020. Since then he hasn’t shown up for a debate. Now he is acting like he wants to debate me again,” Biden said.

“Well, make my day, pal. I’ll even do it twice. So let’s pick the dates, Donald—I hear you are free on Wednesdays,” Biden said, in a not so-subtle reference to Trump’s daily criminal court appearances, which don’t happen on Wednesdays.

Trump accepted the challenge on his social media platform, Truth Social, with this response. “I am READY and WILLING to Debate Crooked Joe at the two proposed times in June and September.” Trump also said he is strongly recommending more than two debates.

The president’s decision to launch the challenge is more than unusual.

For the past 37 years, all presidential debates have been managed by a non-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates.

That organization has already announced three debates in September and October, in Texas, Pennsylvania, and Utah.

But voters can actually cast their ballots as of Sept. 6 in some states, and both candidates think the debates should be held earlier.

Two years ago, the Republican National Committee agreed unanimously to boycott the commission’s presidential debates, but Democrats did not follow suit until this week.

There has been disagreement with the commission by the Democrats, who felt the organization broke the rules in allowing Trump and supporters to forego the wearing of masks during a COVID debate in 2020.

Democrats also want a debate without an audience, while Trump is seeking more people in more venues. He even suggested a debate in front of the courthouse where he is currently on trial for allegedly falsifying business records for hush money paid to former porn star Stormy Daniels.

Biden’s decision to call for an early debate is not a total surprise, as Democrats have not been happy with the college-based format.

But the fact that he would launch the challenge on social media is surprising.

It signals the importance of social media in the upcoming election race, and also suggests that Trump’s positive polling numbers are causing concern in presidential circles.

If the president were firmly in the lead, he would be minimizing the attention paid to debates. Democrats are also anxious to keep third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. out of the ring.

They obviously don’t think he can win, but in a tight race, the scion of the Kennedy clan could actually deliver the race to Trump.

The early debate on CNN won’t likely include Kennedy, although that decision has not been finalized. That is one big reason why Biden wants to go early.

A second reason is that, notwithstanding Trump’s judicial challenges, his poll numbers are actually increasing.

Biden is banking on the fact that Trump’s daily one-liners will be overshadowed by the substance required to sustain a full debate.

Whatever happens in the United States, a presidential debate involving Trump will have a spillover effect in Canada.

Trump has been travelling the country bragging about his appointments to the U.S. Supreme Court who have thrown out women’s right to control their own reproduction.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says he won’t touch the abortion issue, but his caucus is rife with those who plan to do just that. He has also promised to use the notwithstanding clause to overturn laws that he doesn’t like.

Trump is also saying that he does not support a national ban on abortion, but says the states should make the decision and, once they do, it should be respected.

Democrats would love to run the election on that issue, because they know that the vast majority of women—especially young women—do not want the clock to be turned back on abortion rights.

Liberals would love to have Canadian voters focused on the same issue.

Poilievre hopes to park the abortion question having promised not to reopen the issue. But more than half his caucus members are actively anti-choice.

Poilievre recently joined them in voting against the provision of free birth control medication as part of the rollout of a modified pharma care program.

The more Trump’s team campaigns against abortion rights, the more Canadians will wonder if that could happen here.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.