If Kamala Harris can make the case for her economic plan, and if Donald Trump’s insults are caught on tape, she might continue her positive trajectory.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 9, 2024.

OTTAWA–All eyes are on Philadelphia, Penn., as this week’s U.S. presidential campaign debate pits former president Donald Trump against Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Harris’ background as a prosecutor should stand her in good stead in terms of clarity and focus. Trump’s tendency to ramble on with snippets of thought on multiple issues will not shine in a debate format where there is a two-way conversation.

But it is difficult to predict the outcome as the majority of media pressure seems to be focused on Harris as a first-time candidate.

Much attention has been paid to Harris’ first interview on CNN with her vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz. That interview, by Dana Bash, was not very hard-hitting, as the questions appeared designed to support the Harris candidacy, not challenge it.

As far as Canadians are concerned, the vast majority think Harris already has the election in the bag, and they support her. An Abacus survey last month showed that Harris has made a favourable impression on Canadians, with 48 per cent having a positive impression, while 21 per cent holding a negative viewpoint.

Trump is in the opposite situation, as 61 per cent of Canadians hold a negative impression of him—50 per cent hold a very negative impression. Only 24 per cent have a positive impression.

But the Canadian perspective is not what counts here, as we don’t have a horse in that race. Canucks have a hard time understanding why Trump is popular south of the border because, if the vote were being held in Canada, there would be no question that Harris would clobber him.

Not surprisingly, the only province reflective of the American trend is Alberta, where 33 per cent hold a negative impression of the current vice-president. The Harris negatives and positives in Alberta are statistically equal.

That parallels the finding that the majority of Liberal and New Democratic Party supporters in Alberta have a positive viewpoint of Harris.

Tories’ negative and positive numbers in that province are equal, while 68 per cent of Liberals and 65 per cent of New Democrats feel positively about Harris.

Abacus findings are similar to those of other polling organizations that have consistently found more Canadians support the American vice-president than the former president.

Polling by Angus Reid reflected a gender trend that appears to be mirrored south of the border, as well.

According to a mid-August poll, two-thirds of Canadians have a favourable view of Harris, with women being her strongest supporters.

Older women were most numerous in their support for the vice-president with almost 80 per cent claiming a positive impression of the Democratic candidate. Older men were positive, too.

But, as in the United States, Harris’ biggest obstacle is winning over men under the age of 55. Some 40 per cent of this Canadian cohort described Harris unfavourably, calling her dishonest, arrogant, or corrupt.

Despite those naysayers, most Canadians believe that Harris will win the American presidential campaign, according to another recent poll by Nik Nanos.

Last March, Nanos polling showed the majority thought Trump would beat President Joe Biden. A swing of 24 per cent in the Democrats favour has propelled those numbers away from a Republican prediction of victory

But Canadians’ support of Harris does not translate south of the border.

The unique role of the electoral college means the popular vote counts less than where the vote is cast. Somewhat similar to a Canadian system where a candidate could win the popular vote and lose the election, a presidential candidate must exceed 270 electoral college votes in order to win the election.

Even with Harris’ increase in the popular vote compared to incumbent U.S. President Biden, the electoral college splits put the election decision on a knife’s edge.

The tight race increases the importance of this week’s debate. If Harris can make the case for her economic plan and Trump’s insults are caught on tape, she might continue her positive trajectory.

If she makes mistakes that can be magnified by the Trump campaign, her post-convention momentum could be stopped in its tracks.

My money is on Harris. I am in that group of older Canadian women—four in five of us—who have great hope for the election of the first Black woman as president of the United States.

Harris has constantly been underestimated, including during her work behind the scenes as Biden’s vice-president.

She also has plenty of experience in taking on bullies, including California prosecutorial experience and the fight against America’s big banks.

A debate victory could be her ticket to the White House.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.