By weakening the authority of the U.S. House Speaker, the ‘Never Kevin’ caucus has been trying to legislate changes that run parallel to the demands at the basis of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on Capitol Hill. Back in the 1800s, a similar Speaker vote required more than 100 rounds to reach a majority. That may be happening again. It gives democracy a black eye. 

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on January 9, 2023.

OTTAWA—Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. The message has come across loud and clear to aspiring American House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was eventually elected on Jan. 7 House Speaker on the 15th ballot.

The Republican establishment choice was so sure he would get the job that his staff already address him as speaker and his furniture has been moved into the office.

But even as he limps across the finish line, he will be weakened, the Republican caucus will be in tatters and the institution of Speaker will be considerably diminished.

This Washington circus is proof positive that a republican system is not always the best form of governance.

It just so happens that the American Republicans have fractured into the kind of government one gets when the solidarity of parliamentary caucuses is replaced with a system where each representative stands alone.

In recent years there has been much attention in Canada paid to constituent assemblies, where Members of Parliament are expected to ignore party promises and simply reflect the views of constituents.

In Canada, that political division breaks upon geographic lines, with Alberta and Saskatchewan becoming increasingly isolated in their moves to the right.

In the United States, constituents are not defined by a geographic area of governance. They rally round a cause, and work politically to elect those who will simply espouse it their cause.

In the case of Republicans who will determine McCarthy’s fate, they don’t really believe in government. Some are even rabid supporters of the Jan. 6, 2021, attempt to overtake the Capitol Hill Building and overthrow the Congress.

These extremists are able to pursue agendas as they see fit with no regard to caucus cohesion or the fact that their actions are leading to a weakening in public belief in democracy.

It was the first time in a century that the nominated speaker was not elected on the first ballot.

And the chaos on the floor of the House has been largely driven by the rump group in the Republican party that actually appeared emboldened by the situation.

“Freedom caucus” speaker nominee Byron Donalds of Florida characterized the mess as “an invigorating day for America.”

To the rest of the world, watching this debacle unfold, it appears as though the American political system is broken.

There does not appear to be a way to build consensus and collaboration in government where the importance of internal political solidarity has been blown up.

Instead, the current focus appears on handcuffing colleagues and breaking down the structures of government, including the power of the Speaker.

In a parliamentary system, there are moments when one’s personal point of view runs counter to the majority or to the direction charted by the leadership. In some instances, there is an irreconcilable internal division.

One good example in the case of the Liberals was the internal split over the Meech Lake Accord. It caused serious caucus rancour and eventually contributed to the defeat of a constitutional package that would have seen Quebec sign the Canadian Constitution.

On the caucus side, one quarter of Liberal members split from the leadership and voted against the accord. In the end, the agreement failed to receive endorsement from all the provinces.

But at the end of the day, the parliamentary system places a focus on solidarity and nurtures the importance of consensus within political parties.

Even in the British meltdown that faced Boris Johnson, his parliamentary caucus was quick to come together.

His successor suffered the ignominy of being turfed within months. But the British political system did not unravel.

In the United States, it feels as though the political system is unravelling.

The members of this freedom caucus seem to revel in the chaos that they have created.

On the Canadian front, the so-called 2023 “Freedom Convoy” has been cancelled.

One of the reasons cited for the cancellation was Ontario legislation that included heavy financial penalties for illegal convoys.

The only political party in Canada that supported the convoy was the Conservative party, but even that party has moderated its previously supportive rhetoric.

In the United States, it almost appears that the Group of 20 Republican Congresspeople is actually trying to bring down their own majority.

By weakening the authority of the Speaker, the “Never Kevin” caucus has been trying to legislate changes that run parallel to the demands at the basis of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on Capitol Hill.

Back in the 1800s, a similar Speaker vote required more than 100 rounds to reach a majority.

That may be happening again. It gives democracy a black eye.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

For the moment, Pierre Poilievre does not need to offer any solutions. But simply playing the role of the grumpy old man will not likely attract new supporters to his effort. A winner is always positive.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on November 14, 2022.

OTTAWA—Groundhog Day for Pierre Poilievre was not a happy one.

After several weeks in a news hole, Poilievre finally decided to come out of his hiding place and held a presser in Vancouver.

Of course, it would not be in Ottawa.

Any journalism student 101 knows that when leaders get off the Hill, questions are softer and more friendly than what they can expect with the national press gallery.

So, there weren’t too many tough questions about why Poilievre went into hiding immediately after securing his leadership in a romp.

But his message seemed strangely like the one which secured him the leadership.

The country is in a mess and only he can fix it.

“It feels like everything is broken in this country right now.”

Poilievre even blamed a “300 per cent increase in opioid use in Vancouver” on the prime minister.

When criticized for lack of media availability, Poilievre became combative. He accused a Radio-Canada journalist of getting his facts wrong when the reporter said Poilievre had not had a press conference in 60 days.

He decried the claim that he did not want to meet with the media and expressed interest in speaking to reporters across the country.

But he had no time for those on Parliament Hill whom he accused of trying to control the message.

It is obvious that Poilievre is not in love with the media. It is also obvious that he thinks by limiting access to reporters in Ottawa, he will be able to shape a more positive message across the country.

But the negative messaging at his first major presser was a bad start.

By assuming everything in Canada is broken, Poilievre will certainly secure the support of those Canadians who helped his rise to power.

He continues to defend the illegal Freedom Convoy and believes that under the current government, nothing in Canada is working very well.

In order to broaden his brand, Poilievre needs to reach out to people who still believe there is something good about the country.

Most Canadians are feeling the pain of inflation. But they also do not live in a vacuum and realize that the inflationary pressures they are experiencing are being felt around the world.

In last week’s American congressional and gubernatorial races, inflation was top of mind with almost all voters, according to exit polls in multiple states.

It even beat out the question of abortion where state referendums resoundingly reaffirmed the right for women to decide whether or not they carry a fetus to term.

But even with the pocketbook issue of inflation dogging almost every state race, the Republicans were not able to make the major gains that had been predicted.

Instead, U.S. President Joe Biden surprised everyone by beating all his predecessors on midterm numbers.

That tells me that voters do not always blame a global problem on a national leader.

The same could hold true for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the inflationary situation that the country is facing.

Poilievre is obviously banking on the fact that inflation will be seen as a national problem.

He was the first to raise the issue, even when it appeared to be a temporary problem, and he has even paraphrased Trudeau’s moniker to include Justinflation.

That turn of phrase seeks to link the prime minister and the government with the problem of inflation.

But if it is deemed to be worldwide, and the country’s job numbers continue to flourish, the Liberals may be able to dodge the bullet.

Poilievre doesn’t think so. But he also needs to be careful that his appeal to the negative side of the human spirit may not set him up for the job of prime minister.

Trudeau came into office in 2015 promising sunny ways. Some may rightfully argue that those sunny ways have not fully materialized. In the current economic uncertainty, it looks like the country could soon be raining recession.

Poilievre has decided to paint a grim picture, with the promise that his proposed government cuts will make things better.

However, as he gets closer to the actual election, he will have to clarify what he intends to cut.

With low-cost childcare and accessible dental plans, a cut to either of those programs might not help his electability.

For the moment, he does not need to offer any solutions. But simply playing the role of the grumpy old man will not likely attract new supporters to his effort.

A winner is always positive.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps

First published in The Hill Times on November 12, 2018.

OTTAWA—Last week’s midterm elections reinforced the reality of the United States as a deeply divided nation.

The voting population appears to be split down the middle. Divisions are even more stark when it comes to race and the urban-rural divide.

With only two Senators elected per state, predominantly Republican rural areas become disproportionately important in that Chamber.

With the same number of Senators representing Rhode Island and California, it is much easier to get a majority of seats via a minority of voters.

And the unfettered spending in the American political system begs the question of what really constitutes a democracy.

But significant Democratic Congressional gains will definitively change the flavour of the second half of President Donald Trump’s first term in office.

The comfortable Democratic majority will position the president to blame his own failures on political gridlock, with enemies poised to poison his tenure.

If anyone thought midterm challenges would moderate the president’s vitriol, it took only a single day to abandon that notion.

With the sacking of attorney general Jeff Sessions, and the revocation of press credentials for CNN White House reporter Jim Acosta, the White House was quick to let the world know that it would be nasty business as usual.

And Trump has every reason to repeat his divisive tactics. Notwithstanding all the negativity of the past two years, he is still scoring big with his base and bringing other recalcitrant supporters on side.

One woman interviewed during a voting day exit poll specified that she was voting for the policies, not the person. Her belief was that the president’s character was irrelevant as long as he supported positions favourable to her views.

Others are simply happy with the economy and believe the president can take some credit for that.

A positive economic benchmark may not last forever, as all indicators are pointing to a slowdown amidst international uncertainty and some potential for inflation.

Trump’s bitter trade disputes with China, Canada, and even Europe, will also effect the stability of the international economy, which could spell trouble.

The post-election Sessions’ firing is probably the clearest sign that the Russian investigation carried out by Robert Mueller looms as the largest threat to Trump’s hope for reelection.

With the Democrats regaining control of the House of Representatives, they will have a number of opportunities to dig deeper into the financial labyrinth of the Trump family fortune and its potential relationship to foreign powers.

The Democrats have secured a comfortable majority in the House, with new, younger female and minority faces poised to lead the charge.

One of Trump’s most effective slogans has been “Clean the swamp.” Those three little words imply that getting the dirt out of Washington will be his first priority. Instead, it may be his dirt that is about to be excavated.

The noose is tightening around the president’s neck. That is the only explanation for the firing of his attorney general. His next move could be to work with an increased Republican Senate majority to put an end to the Mueller investigation.

But the Democrats have already laid down a marker. As soon as the Sessions axe was dropped, key Democrat leader Chuck Schumer warned that any move to derail Mueller would throw the country into a constitutional crisis that could result in Trump’s impeachment.

The majority control now enjoyed by the Democrats in Congress will give them all the tools they need to dig deeper. They have already asked for the production of all documents related to Sessions as they intend to investigate his firing.

Sessions’ former chief of staff has been named as his replacement. He is a bellicose anti-Mueller opponent, who has already been warned to recuse himself from interference in the Russian special investigation.

The defiant tone that Trump exhibited in the presidential press conference signals that his war with the media will not end any time soon.

The decision to revoke CNN credentials will also prompt a backlash from other media outlets. At the same press conference, Trump verbally dressed down two black female reporters, including a PBS journalist who has become one of his favourite targets.

Trump is also facing renewed calls to produce his tax returns. He now says they are too complicated and that people simply will not be able to understand them.

But the major Congressional shakeup last week guarantees that these issues will now take centre stage.

Washington’s mid-course correction will make politics uglier. It’s hard to believe it could get any worse.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.