The Liberal leader is leading in all demographic groups except for men aged 35 to 54

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on April 7, 2025.

OTTAWA—Women are stampeding to the Liberals in this election.

The most recent Ipsos Reid poll showed that, for women over the age of 55, Prime Minister Mark Carney holds a 27-point lead over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

The Liberal leader is leading in all demographic groups except for men aged 35 to 54.

But the startling gap between women and men is worth examining.

Poilievre didn’t help himself last week when he launched his housing strategy claiming that women’s biological clock would run out before a Liberal housing program would help.

“I don’t think any woman wants to hear Pierre Poilievre talking about their body, period!” was the immediate retort from New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh.

Critics on social media questioned why Poilievre plans to cancel national childcare if he is so interested in women having babies.

The social gains introduced by the Liberals over the last decade are particularly important for women.

Obviously, childcare is huge, and the dental care program is especially important for older women on fixed incomes who cannot afford dental work. Ditto for school lunch programs and pharmacare, including free birth control, IUDs, hormonal implants, and the morning-after pill.

Poilievre is definitely not on board with national childcare, and has been ambiguous about dental and pharmacare. He has promised that no person currently covered under those programs would be cut off, but is silent on the extension of the programs to others. He also voted against the National School Food Program, and is silent on its continuation.

These are issues of particular interest to women.

It is not lost on them that several dozen members of the Conservative caucus have pledged to support limitations on abortion through private members’ bills. Poilievre himself, in his very first speech to Parliament, spoke out in opposition to public health funding for transgender medical services.

The Trump Supreme Court nominations that resulted in an end to reproductive choice in the United States, and the United States president decision to abolish equal rights policies for women, minorities, gays, and transsexuals has frightened Canadian women, as well. If it could happen there, what about us? Poilievre doesn’t pass that smell test.

Carney leads dramatically in net-positive favourability. That sum is the number achieved when you deduct unfavourable from the favourable viewpoints to discover what people think about each candidate.

Carney is enjoying a positive favourability among men and women. With men, the net range is 18-plus while for women it is 26-plus, according to the same poll.

The difference between Carney’s favourability rating and Poilievre’s unfavourable is stunning. Three in five women—at 61 per cent—say they have an unfavourable view of Poilievre.

Carney has also managed to attract the majority of young voters, a crucial element in Justin Trudeau’s 2015 majority government victory.

Forty-five per cent of young men between the ages of 18 and 34 now support the Liberals, and 46 per cent of men over 54 years old support the Liberals.

We are almost four weeks away from the vote, and the leaders’ debates could both have an effect on the outcome.

Poilievre has been cautioned publicly by members of his own party that he needs to pivot away from the anti-Liberal message to an anti-Trump stance.

But the challenge for the Conservative leader is that a significant percentage of his base also supports Trump. So if he is too tough on the American president, he will lose supporters, as well.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who is busy courting Trumpian podcasters and running her own “Trash Canada” campaign, is stoking the flames of separation in Alberta, which is decidedly unhelpful to her federal leader.

Poilievre not only has had to pivot on message that Canada is broken, he also has to attack Trump. The “lost Liberal decade” phrase, which peppers all his public declarations, seems to reinforce the notion that Canada is broken, even while his Bring it Home/Canada First mantra sounds like a page out of the Trump playbook.

Of course, Trump’s chaotic approach to government is ensuring that his prints are all over this Canadian election.

His ill-advised Liberation Day announcement of worldwide tariffs on April 2 has certainly caught everyone’s attention. Even if the American Senate is successful in reversing the emergency resolution that allowed the president to impose tariffs, it is going to take time for this to happen.

Financial markets and ordinary citizens in the United States are already very nervous about the cost of these tariffs.

But Trump’s tenure is four years, and Poilievre only has three weeks.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on December 9, 2024.

OTTAWA—While governments are focusing on gender designation in sport, women are just making it happen.

Charge Ottawa opened the second season last week with a three-two victory over the Toronto Sceptres at TD Place.

The game started a new season with a new name.

The league launched last year without team names, and fans were thrilled with the Charge new look.

Season ticket holders were snapping up merchandise while fans in the thousands arrived to witness the season opener for the Professional Women’s Hockey League.

Meanwhile, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s government passed three bills last week limiting transgender rights.

One bill is designed to prohibit transgender pronoun choices by minors, another restricts transgender access to human rights support.

The third is a sport bill. The Fairness and Safety in Sport Act is designed to require school boards, educational institutions and provincial sports organizations to develop policies to “protect the integrity of female athletic competitions by ensuring women and girls have the opportunity to compete in biological female-only divisions.”

The law will also require parents to opt in to education on transgender issues. Current law requires parents to opt out. The burdensome requirements for opting in include informing parents one month in advance and offering alternative education for children who do not get gender sex education.

The law will also limit educational material and lesson plans on sexual orientation and gender identity, potentially erasing same-sex families from the curriculum.

Opponents say the proposals go against research that proves sexual education reduces the number of unwanted pregnancies, sexually-transmitted diseases and unchecked child abuse.

Puberty-blocking medication and hormone therapy would be illegal for children under the age of 16. Youth aged 16 to 17 would require parental consent for such therapies.

Some bill opponents say the prohibition would be particularly challenging for adolescents trying to avoid puberty that is not aligned with their sexual identity.

Equality groups are vowing to fight the Alberta legislation as they have enjoined legal challenges against similar changes to law and policy in Saskatchewan and New Brunswick.

The Canadian Medical Association, the Alberta Medical Association, and the Canadian Paediatric Society oppose the medical limitations in the legislation.

The Alberta changes go beyond those introduced by New Brunswick and Saskatchewan.

The New Brunswick government that introduced a prohibitive transgender law was defeated recently while the Saskatchewan government faced a steep drop in its recent election support.

For years, governments have used their power to keep women out of sport, even when female athletic prowess would have meant they could participate equally in men’s sport.

Some say the sport changes are just another example of government weakening laws that protect athletes from harassment and bullying.

Meanwhile, girls and women are just doing it.

From the PWHL to the wildly popular American-based Women’s National Basketball Association (WNBA), professional sports has opened a new venue for girls who want to make a career of their sport of choice.

The WNBA, which has been operating for almost 30 years, has 13 teams and is the premier women’s pro team globally. Two more teams will join the league next year and their televised games are very popular.

The world of tennis is also changing as the issue of pay equality has been addressed between the genders. Last year, the Women’s Tennis Association approved a plan to achieve pay equity by 2033. Part of that proposal means that gender payments for non-Grand Slam 1,000 and 500-level tournaments will be equal in 2027.

Governments have ignored their potential role in pay equity although former federal sport minister Pascale St-Onge moved quickly to stem sexual harassment in sport, suspending world junior hockey financial support while the issue of sexual assault was addressed.

Smith could be focusing her government’s attention on equality for women and girls in sport. Instead, she is catering to a small minority that is interested in stamping out understanding or support for those who choose to change their gender.

By targeting her attention on reducing support for adolescents struggling with gender identity issues, Smith will shore up support with ultra-conservative members of her caucus.

But she opens the door to a revolt by ordinary Albertans who believe there are other health issues far more important than what pronoun is used to identify non-binary students in the classroom.

Naheed Nenshi and opposition New Democrats are hoping the legislation will provoke the same reaction from Albertans that New Brunswickers expressed at the polls when they dumped the Blaine Higgs Progressive Conservative government.

Only time will tell.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on November 26, 2018.

OTTAWA—Last week was the best of times and the worst of times when it comes to moving the needle on equality.

Symbols matter when it comes to diversity. That is why the face of Viola Desmond on Canada’s new $10 note is much more than simply an image on plastic.

It underscores Desmond’s groundbreaking battle for inclusion, as a black woman who had the audacity to sit in the whites-only section at the cinema.

For her troubles, Desmond was convicted of a tax violation based on the price difference in the seat she purchased and where she sat at the Roseland Theatre in New Glasgow, N.S., in 1946.

Desmond became the first person to be pardoned posthumously for the conviction but it took the government 64 years to get around to it.

The launch of the new $10 bill makes her the first Canadian non-regal woman to appear alone on Canadian currency.

The Famous Five, and Quebec suffragette Therese Casgrain were the first non-monarch women to appear as a group, in a $50 series that was launched in 2001.

Emily Murphy, Irene Parlby, Nellie McClung, Louise McKinney, and Henrietta Moore Edwards were responsible for securing the right for women to sit alongside men in the Senate.

The Canadian Supreme Court turned down their initial application but the Famous Five ultimately got justice by appealing successfully to the British Privy Council.

That ruling back in 1929 became known as the Person’s Case and cleared the way for women to serve in the Red Chamber.

The $50 commemorative bill remained in circulation for a decade but the women’s images were replaced by an icebreaker during the government of Stephen Harper in 2012.

The announcement of another female face on our currency is long overdue.

The Desmond decision came on the heels of another symbolic gesture that egregiously turned back the clock.

The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario convention moved forward with a process to endorse a resolution that labelled gender identity as “a highly controversial, unscientific ‘liberal ideology.’”

The proposal by former provincial leadership candidate Tanya Granic Allen calls for the termination of gender theory education in Ontario schools.

Premier Doug Ford and his cabinet were quick to distance themselves from the move, saying they will not implement the proposal.

But Granic Allen plans to pursue her resolution at the party’s policy convention a year from now and claims that she is “just following Doug’s lead on the issue.”

When Ford was running for the Tory leadership, he promised to remove gender theory teaching from the curriculum. In return, Granic Allen’s socially conservative backers moved to Ford when she was knocked off the ballot early.

Now the chickens are coming home to roost. Ford may distance himself from Granic Allen but the majority of members in the party he leads are happy to send the message that transgender identity does not exist.

The victims in this narrative are the transgendered people still struggling for equality in society.

The majority of trans youth are alienated from their families. Some of them end up on the street. Two-thirds of transgendered adolescents report that they have self-harmed in the last year.

The sex education curriculum that explores their issues is simply an attempt to create a platform for learning and understanding.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.