Pablo Rodriquez has integrated beautifully into the Quebec political world, and is widely recognized as a great organizer in all regions. That would make his decision to leave even tougher for Prime Minister Trudeau as there is no lieutenant heir apparent waiting in the wings.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on August 12, 2024.

OTTAWA—Pablo Rodriguez is considering a run at the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party.

When the news broke last week, he neither confirmed nor denied but his response made it fairly obvious that he will be going.

“As minister of transport and Quebec lieutenant in Justin Trudeau’s government, I am proud to work hard for the good of all Quebecers and all Canadians. I am sincerely touched by the many requests I have received to return to where it all began for me,” was the comment he offered up after Radio Canada ran a story saying he was considering the move.

The Quebec Liberal Party leadership will be held in Quebec City on June 14 of next year.

Denis Coderre, former federal Liberal cabinet minister and former Montreal mayor, is currently the only candidate in the race.

By the sounds of Rodriguez’ statement, he will be joining Coderre in the near future.

Rodriquez began his political career as a member of the Quebec Liberal Party’s youth commission in the 1990s.

As the son of an immigrant who studied in Sherbrooke, Que., Rodriquez has a reputation as a great political organizer. He is also seen as more of a team player than Coderre.

Rodriquez has maintained good relationships with members in both the provincial and federal parties, which is not always the case.

The last provincial Liberal premier was Jean Charest, who was obviously not a federal Liberal. In many instances, there has been huge antipathy between the two organizations.

Someone who could bring them together would be seen as an attractive political alternative.

Rodriguez has been struggling to establish his political footprint at Transport Canada, a department notorious for boring its ministers to death with operational minutiae and very little in the way of public profile.

Rodriguez has found some success in his attempt to stem the tide of Canadian car thefts, with stolen vehicles exiting through the port of Montreal. By spearheading a national anti-theft strategy, he has managed to command some media attention.

But he misses his former portfolio in Canadian Heritage, where the length and breadth of cultural issues were perfect for a minister whose mother tongue was neither English nor French.

Rodriquez has integrated beautifully into the Quebec political world, and is widely recognized as a great organizer in all regions.

That would make his decision to leave even tougher for Prime Minister Trudeau as there is no lieutenant heir apparent waiting in the wings.

Other current Quebec ministers are either short on experience or not very political.

And the one thing a lieutenant needs is political antennae, especially in the leadup to what is likely to be a very tough campaign for the federal Liberals next year.

It is the second time in as many weeks that Trudeau is receiving what could turn out to be bad news from his ministers.

The decision of Seamus O’Regan to retire from politics was announced on July 18.

O’Regan said he was stepping down for family reasons, but everyone knows re-election in his riding of St. John’s South-Mount Pearl, N.L., would be tough.

The relatively new riding includes about 95 per cent of the former St. John’s West, which has been largely dominated by Conservatives. The most notable Tory was John Crosbie who held the seat for 16 years.

O’Regan has been victorious in his riding since 2015, but that could change. If current polling continues, his riding is highly likely to go Tory.

As a personal friend of the prime minister, who even served in his wedding party, O’Regan’s decision to leave is pretty clearly based on a keen reading of the tea leaves.

O’Regan was a broadcaster before entering politics. He, more than most, understands that it is only a rising tide that lifts all boats. The current Liberal tide does not appear to be rising.

If the party’s polling numbers don’t improve, more Liberals can be expected to ponder on their own futures after spending time in their constituencies.

They are no doubt getting an earful from disgruntled voters.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez’s potential departure would leave a huge gap in the Liberal electoral machine in Quebec.

Quebec is the one region that has spurned the political advances of Pierre Poilievre and will likely continue to support a native son in the next election.

But races will be tight, and the party needs good on-the-ground support to recruit candidates and organizers.

Rodriguez was key to that structure. His leave taking could create an unfillable political hole.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Last week’s announcement fulfilled a Liberal promise to lift the ban on gay blood donations, but it was also designed to drive a further wedge inside the Conservative Party, especially as it related to leadership front-runner Pierre Poilievre.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May 2, 2022.

OTTAWA—Full equality moved one step closer in Canada last week when the federal government finally lifted the ban on gay blood donations.

While the announcement was made by the prime minister, several gay colleagues were there to back him up.

The Liberals had promised to remove the ban when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was first elected back in 2015. Because the ban had not been lifted, a discrimination case was slowly making its way through the courts that might have provoked a judicial overturning of the prohibition.

That case claimed that the federal government had no right to impose a ban via Health Canada because the Canadian Blood Services Agency was an independent body. As such, it enjoyed an arm’s length position which meant it should not be subject to federal government interference.

In the case of the Trudeau announcement, the prime minister defended the lengthy delay in delivering on the promise by saying the government needed to fund scientific research to affirm the political promise.

But there is no doubt the announcement was political in nature. The ban removal will cover all Canadians except for those who live in Quebec. Quebec gay donors will still be prohibited but the prime minister said he was confident that Héma-Québec would likely decide to move in the same direction.

Cabinet ministers Seamus O’Regan and Randy Boissonnault and Liberal MP Rob Oliphant were among those commenting on the decision.

Boissonnault is the first openly gay Member of Parliament from Alberta, and he eked out a narrow victory against Conservative incumbent James Cumming in a downtown Edmonton riding.

Unlike some Conservative colleagues, Cumming voted against a Tory party’s motion to ban abortion and voted in favour of criminalizing conversion therapy so both men shared similar views.

In the last election, even in British Columbia, social Conservatives were defeated in almost every urban centre. The defeat of those members stalled the momentum of the Conservative party and left the door open for the Liberals to win another, albeit minority, election.

Last week’s announcement fulfilled a Liberal promise but it was also designed to drive a further wedge inside the Conservative Party, especially as it related to leadership front-runner Pierre Poilievre.

Poilievre is no friend of the gay community. One of his first actions as a Member of Parliament was to oppose public health-care funding for people who are undergoing gender reassignment. Poilievre wanted to defund surgery for transgender individuals seeking to change their sex. He went so far as to falsely claim that the reassignment medical procedure does not require surgery.

Back in 2008, Poilievre was the youngest Member of Parliament. In more recent times, he has been focused more on pocketbook issues as an appeal to the young. The bitcoin and blockchain references that he sprinkles in his speeches are designed to appeal to young people even as they miff economists and traditional bankers.

But those same young people are also in favour of non-binary and transgender decision-making.

Poilievre’s colleague in the race, Leslyn Lewis, is recruiting more social conservatives who will be pushing their anti-abortion and pro-conversion perspectives in public policy.

For Poilievre to be embraced by the mainstream, he needs to go mainstream. That involves repudiating positions he has taken in the past that discriminate against the LGBTQ community.

Like any other Canadian, a gay or lesbian voter does not necessarily make their electoral decision strictly on a single issue, even if it affects their own sexuality.

They, too, are interested in tax policy, social issues, and many other elements of governance that are assessed during an election by every voter.

But in a multi-party system, a voter shift of three or four per cent can actually change the face of government.

So, when a health announcement on blood is made, it is just as much a move for the next election as it was for the past one.

Fulfilling the promise on ending gay blood bans was important for the Liberals. With the New Democrats involved in a governance agreement, the Grits believe they have a chance to court a larger swath on the left in the next election.

But in several years of government, enemies are made, and the sunny ways of 2015 have given way to clouds on the Trudeau horizon.

In the next race, it will be crucial to solidify minority votes because Tories will bleed votes from disgruntled former Liberals on the right who fear the fiscal bottom line.

Every LGBTQ vote will count.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on January 21, 2019.

OTTAWA—It was a self-inflicted bad week for the Liberals.

First was the cabinet shuffle, which ended up creating more questions than answers. Then followed the racially-based comments of Liberal candidate Karen Wang pitting Chinese against Indo voters in the British Columbia byelection including New Democratic leader Jagmeet Singh.

On the cabinet shuffle, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demoted a female aboriginal star when he shuffled Jody Wilson-Raybould out of the Justice portfolio.

Wilson-Raybould, an articulate former chief, was actively courted by the Liberals because of her reputation in legal and aboriginal circles.

The Justice portfolio was especially tricky because of her Indigenous roots.

As witnessed in the numerous western pipeline protests, the aboriginal community is split in its view of consultation and pipeline location.

In some instances, the chiefs who have actually been elected by their people, are on board with the projects but hereditary chiefs, whose title passes from father to son, are not.

It is difficult to blame governments when the consultation process is bifurcated between two groups in a single community who do not have their own consensus on the issues.

Wilson-Raybould navigated those murky waters very capably, privately pushing the government to move more quickly while publicly remaining on board in cabinet solidarity.

The prime minister’s explanation for why she was moved did not ring true. The notion that the veterans’ file needed a steadier hand was contradictory because the outgoing minister, Seamus O’Regan, was tasked to work on aboriginal issues.