Once again, a woman for president was just too much for Americans to bear. Kamala Harris was soundly beaten by an angry white man. 

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on November 11, 2024.

OTTAWA—After his decisive victory against U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris last week, Donald Trump needs to get some new hats.

The stench of sexism and racism wafted from voting booths as those who wanted to turn back the clock cast their ballots for a convicted sex offender.

Trump’s numbers in most areas exceeded his previous election bids. In his first attempt, Trump made it to the White House with the electoral vote, but not the popular vote. On Nov. 5, he got it all. There is nothing stopping him now.

David Axelrod, a Democratic adviser to multiple presidents, said after the vote that racism and sexism both played a role in Harris’ loss. Given the United States has previously voted for a Black president in Barack Obama, one has to assume that gender was the deciding Harris negative.

An exit poll by Edison Research found that Harris received the majority of her support from women and minorities. As for women, she won 54 per cent of their votes, while Trump secured 44 per cent. However, the white vote generally gave Trump an edge of 12 per cent. As for Latinos, they moved toward Trump in numbers not seen in the 2020 race.

On the race front, post-election numbers show that Harris garnered 80 per cent of the Black vote, but Obama received 93 per cent. Why was there a 13 per cent drop? Was it because some Black men couldn’t vote for a woman?

Women all over the world are mourning the Harris loss because it felt that, once again, a chance to elect a woman president in American was shattered not by a glass ceiling, but a concrete one.

Harris ran a flawless campaign. She was positive, upbeat, and energetic compared to a waddling Trump who bored crowds with his incoherent, droning speeches.

A woman voter dressed as a handmaid at a Pennsylvania voting booth said it all. Without uttering a word, the anonymous woman sent a clear message of what was at stake in the election.

Margaret Atwood, renowned Canadian author of The Handmaid’s Tale, made her own plea to American voters to support Harris for president.

According to her publisher, Atwood’s novel explores “themes of powerless women in a patriarchal society, loss of female agency and individuality, suppression of women’s reproductive rights, and the various means by which women resist and try to gain individuality and independence.”

That was the narrative for women in this election.

Once again, a woman for president was just too much for Americans to bear. Harris, who took over the Democratic reins from an ailing President Joe Biden 100 days ago, was soundly beaten by an angry white man.

Trump’s multiple character flaws were on painful display in the campaign, including the fact that almost no one who served with him in the White House supported him. His last week of campaigning was a disaster.

The hope that former congresswoman Liz Cheney be put before a firing squad prefaced by a self-inflicted wound at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally in New York. Multiple participants levelled insults at women, Blacks, and Jews.

Harris herself was alleged to be a sex worker working with her pimps. Then came the now infamous insult to Puerto Ricans when a comedian called their home a floating island of garbage.

Harris faced a double whammy. As a racialized woman, she fought prejudice against her gender and her race.

Despite her comfortable majority support with women, the men did her in. The more education they had, the more likely they were to support her. But opposition from young men and those with less than a high school education was ferocious.

Harris cannot be faulted on her campaign. Her message was solid, and she delivered it with an ease of confidence reminiscent of a real leader.

Now Democrats must reboot while MAGA Republicans are already discussing a successor to the aging president-elect. In a media interview, a young Trump voter said he thought the perfect successor was vice-president-elect J.D. Vance.

The man who thinks America is being run by a “bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices they’ve made and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable, too” is the next great white hope.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

The boost in polling that Democrats have enjoyed since U.S. President Joe Biden dropped out of the race would not be shared by the Liberals if Justin Trudeau were to do the same.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 2, 2024.

OTTAWA–The post-Biden bump for the Democrats in the United States has not passed unnoticed in Canada.

One of the first questions asked of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the summer cabinet meeting in Halifax last week was just that: Could the Liberals get a similar bump if the prime minister were to step down, and the voters were presented with a different face at the head of the party?

Trudeau sidestepped the question, and continued to insist that his job was to “be there to invest in Canadians.” But his close friend and cabinet colleague Marc Miller did say that robust conversations were taking place within the confines of the caucus, without public disclosure.

Other ministers, including potential leadership candidates Mélanie Joly and Chrystia Freeland, were quick to support the prime minister’s leadership. But the party is roiling, as ministers and Members of Parliament seek their own Canadian bump.

It has been a year since the Conservative lead entered into double-digit territory, and nothing the government does seems to narrow that gap. But the notion of a parallel result if Trudeau were to resign is misdirected.

First of all, the hike for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has resulted in an increase of three to four per cent for her party.

Three to four per cent in Canada would not be enough to return to government, as the current polling differential between the Liberals and the Conservatives is much higher.

The United States is essentially a two-party system, so a small shift can make or break a victory. Even an independent with the name recognition of Robert Kennedy Jr. managed only six per cent support at the apex of his campaign. It is doubtful that six per cent would even follow him into an election. Now that he has thrown his support behind Republican candidate Donald Trump, his supporters will probably split between the two main parties.

Also, a two-party system lends itself to a smooth transition. In the U.S. case, the Democrats were able to replace U.S. President Joe Biden with Harris without a full leadership convention because opponents were edged out by the current vice-president.

The fact that she would have replaced Biden in the event of a presidential illness or incapacity made it simpler to rally around her at a national convention less than three months from the election.

In Trudeau’s case, his succession would trigger a full leadership process. Contrary to some media reports, Mark Carney is not a putative leader in waiting. There are several current cabinet ministers who have been quietly setting the stage for their own leadership ambitions.

Pundits would suggest that it is better to have someone from outside the current crop of politicians, and Carney certainly has a polished Canadian and international pedigree. But the Liberal Party’s previous experience with global pedigree has not been positive.

Michael Ignatieff is a brilliant scholar with a renowned global reputation who was supposed to be the party’s saviour. Instead, he was quickly rejected as someone who came back to Canada only to run for office. Carney has declined multiple offers to run for office, and that doesn’t sit well with those working in the trenches.

While the public may be tired of Trudeau, the party’s volunteer base is actively working to explain why his leadership and the current government are worth supporting.

The checklist is long for Liberals. National childcare, dental care, pharmacare and school lunch programs send a message that the party is working for all the people.

But the government has been telling that story for several months, and so far, it seems to be falling on deaf ears. Party members are ready for a leadership change, but also realize that the decision is in the hands of the prime minister.

Meanwhile, from François-Philippe Champagne to Dominic LeBlanc, many are weighing their future chances. Former parliamentarian Frank Baylis, who sold his heart-device business for $1.75-billion in 2021, is also actively assessing a potential campaign for the top job.

Baylis, son of a Barbadian immigrant, served in Trudeau’s government for one term, from 2015 to 2019, as the member of parliament for multicultural Pierrefonds-Dollard in Montreal, Que. If successful, he would be the party’s first non-white leader.

All of the foregoing means Liberals will not follow the American example and force out their leader. Multiple candidates are already planning their own robust campaigns, so there would be no shoo-in for Carney.

No huge bump, and multiple candidates rule out a smooth post-Trudeau transition in Canada.

Vive le Canada.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

The fight for the Democratic soul reposes in two distinct groups, the young and the old.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on March 9, 2020.

OTTAWA—It is the American battle of the ages.

The fight for the Democratic soul reposes in two distinct groups, the young and the old.

The young have the energy, and social media savvy to make their presence felt. They are behind Bernie Sanders in unprecedented numbers.

Sanders is encouraging them to dream and dream big. Free post-secondary tuition, and a message that is unmistakably anti-capitalist.

He wants the bloodsucking on Wall Street to stop and has been keenly focused on taking down “the most dangerous president in the history of the country.”

Bernie’s message is sharp and focused. And he has been able to reach out to those millions of Americans who want to reignite a fairer America.

But Joe Biden has been able to convince the rest of battle-weary Democrats that the way to the White House is not through revolution but evolution. That was clear in the Biden bounce.

Sanders says the party should not challenge Donald Trump with a Washington political insider. The place needs an explosion that he will administer.

Although political polar opposites, Sanders and Trump actually have the most in common.

Trump rode to victory on the notion that the capital was a swamp that needed to be drained. He promised to do the draining, attracting millions of disenchanted citizens who believed that Trump would be the one to upend the cozy capital and its entitled residents. Trump was even dubbed the blue-collar billionaire in honour of his commitment to get industrial jobs back into the American rustbelt.

He captured and solidified the blue-collar vote in states that had always been solidly democrat.

That is the same group that Sanders message appeals to.

In addition, Sanders has galvanised the left wing of the Democratic Party who have not had a champion in the White House since Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the New Deal. That was introduced before the Second World War as a way to lift the country out of the Great Depression.

Since that time, all successful Democrats have leaned into the centre. That’s where the votes are.

Sanders will ignite the young, but in general, that demographic has the worst voter turnout.

Successive political parties try to inspire the young voter, but the bottom line is, the older you are, the more likely you are to actually get out and vote.

And the less likely you are to support revolution over evolution.

Raging Grannies are generally in the minority because as people age, they become more comfortable with the art of the possible.

In the current, divided American political climate, the Democratic nominee can only win the presidency by convincing some Republicans to switch sides. That moderate path leads directly to Joe Biden.

Biden, weighed down with Washington baggage, has not been the kind of inspiring candidate who could rivet the country.

But he doesn’t need to be. He needs to be unthreatening enough to convince moderate Republicans that they can switch to the Democrats.

Super Tuesday applied a tourniquet to Biden bleeding. His campaign has certainly been dull and lacklustre. In the early days, he came across as out-of-touch, arrogant, and a Washington insider. Those early stumbles at the gate cost him dearly. When confidence ebbs, uneasy supporters quickly move into more winning camps. And the money follows.

But Michael Bloomberg’s bomb out and Amy Klobuchar’s surprise endorsement of Biden led to the Biden bounce and injected new life into the Biden campaign.

The race is not over. But the momentum is certainly in Biden’s direction.

And notwithstanding Trump’s tweets about Bloomberg, he obviously is very afraid of Biden as an opponent.

Otherwise, why would he waste political capital trying to tie Biden up in his Russian/Ukrainian shakedown scandals?

From this vantage point, it looks as though the Democratic nomination will be Biden’s to lose. Along with the delegates elected in primaries across the country, he can count on the majority of super-delegates, those who get to the convention because of their status in the party as officials or former office holders.

They represent almost 15 per cent of all delegates. Under new rules established in 2018, super delegates cannot vote on a first ballot.

In the Super Tuesday post-mortem, it was clear that Biden got overwhelming support from African Americans, and older, moderate voters.

Sanders continued his groundswell with young people, and Latinos, leading to his capture of coveted California.

The path ahead is clear. Democrats will elect Biden. He is the best hope to beat Donald Trump.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.