By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on November 13, 2023.

OTTAWA—The Ontario Liberal Party race went nuclear last week.

Just after a spirited candidates’ debate in Ottawa, two campaign teams announced they were joining forces in an attempt to beat front-runner, former Liberal MP and Mississauga Mayor, Bonnie Crombie.

Former Ontario Attorney-General and now Liberal MP Yasir Naqvi joined forces with fellow federal Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith in an attempt to deliver a one-two punch to Crombie.

On Nov. 9, just two weeks before voting begins, the pair held a press conference in front of Queen’s Park to deliver their message.

Each is calling upon his supporters to choose the other as their second choice in the single-person ranked ballot system. Both MPs believe they have much in common, and that either would make a better choice to beat Premier Doug Ford than Crombie.

Their agreement announcement said that the “Ontario Liberals will be best positioned to beat Doug Ford by electing a principled, pragmatic and Liberal leader.”

The statement about a “Liberal leader” was designed to remind prospective voters about an early error in the Crombie campaign, when the candidate said she would open up certain areas of the environmentally protected Greenbelt to developers. Crombie has since recanted that position, and promised to leave the protected areas untouched.

But throughout the lengthy campaign, opponents have attempted to portray the front-runner as Ford lite, noting that some of the same developers who are supporting her mayoralty race have also donated to Ford.

The Naqvi and Erskine-Smith’s statement characterized Crombie (without naming her) as “leadership … vulnerable to the same criticisms as the Ford Conservatives—their political baggage, priorities and donors.”

One other candidate has already left the race. Adil Shamji, a provincial Liberal MPP and former physician, threw his support behind Crombie.

A fourth candidate, Ted Hsu, is the only one who currently sits in the provincial legislature. He said on social media that he was approached about the deal, but turned it down because he believes members should have free votes and the party should be beyond deal-making.

For her party, Crombie said she was hoping to be Liberals’ first choice because she has the fundraising and organization skills to help the party win in 2026. She was turning the fundraising questions into a positive as the party is currently in third place in the legislature, and needs cash to be competitive in the next election.

Crombie has already raised more than double the amount of money donated to the combined campaigns of Naqvi and Erskine-Smith.

Full disclosure: I have publicly supported Crombie as leader. The move to join forces was not unexpected. Most leadership campaigns evolve into an anybody-but-the-frontrunner towards the end of the race. The election that saw Stéphane Dion become federal Liberal Party leader was an ‘anybody-but’ movement. In that leadership it was anybody but Bob Rae or Michael Ignatieff, the two front-runners.

Negative karma drove a lot of voters into the arms of Gerard Kennedy and Dion. Dion started the race with only 16 per cent of the vote, but he ended up winning by making a deal with Gerard Kennedy for support.

Deals are usually made quietly in the background. Last week’s announcement was intended to garner maximum media attention.

The public strategy is risky for Naqvi and Erskine-Smith as too much internal fighting could cost them politically. Some Liberals won’t appreciate the attacks on Crombie’s weaknesses, and others may not like being told how to vote. The public nature of the deal may hurt both candidates’ future if Crombie does win.

But in one sense, it was a risk they had to take. As the sale of new memberships is now over, all the candidates have a pretty good handle on their standing in the pack.

And it is highly likely that Crombie is outpacing all of them by a good margin. Last week’s coalition was a do-or-die move for both men. It may not deliver them the leadership, but doing nothing would be equally costly.

If Crombie has enough support to win a majority of votes on the first counting of the ballots, it is a moot point.

If not, the ranking of candidates does have an impact as this will be a vote by all in a preferential ballot. Once the first vote is counted, the candidate with the fewest supporters drops off, and voters’ choices for second and third are then reallocated for a second count.

This Liberal duo is counting on ranked ballots to take one of them over the top.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

There are four putative candidates considering a run at the Liberal leadership. Shockingly, they are all current Liberals and each has something unique to offer. So it’s insulting to assume that their talent is ignored by 38 ‘insiders’ looking for another saviour. 

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on February 6, 2023.

Green Party of Ontario chief Mike Schreiner leads a party of one. After 14 years at the helm, he has only managed to get himself elected. He has had five years to grow the Green base after being elected as the Greens’ first member of Ontario Legislature.

It’s been five years and he hasn’t managed to a recruit a single additional successful Green candidate to the legislature.

Yet for some bizarre reason, a few big names in the Ontario Liberal Party want him as their next leader.

In an open letter that landed like a fart in church, several high-profile Liberals including the first woman leader Lynn McLeod and former deputy leader Deb Matthews penned an open letter, calling on Schreiner to consider joining the Grits.

Their rationale was this: “Our party needs to rediscover the politics of purpose and principle…that’s why we’re turning to you.”

At first blush, the letter seems like a call to arms for party reform. The biggest change would be to elect a leader who is not currently a Liberal.

But amongst four potential leadership candidates, three are racialized Canadians and the fourth is under the age of 40. So how is anointing an over-50-year-old white male going to appeal to a new generation?

In the last election, some of the authors of the open letter were actively working for the coronation of Steven Del Duca. The race was finished before it started because the rules were so restrictive.

Del Duca was a great organizer, but a lousy communicator.

Schreiner is the opposite.

But communications is just part of the job. The biggest challenge facing the next Liberal leader is to recruit a team that could credibly transition to government.

Del Duca did a great job in recruitment and had some fantastic candidates who are still working in their ridings.

And that’s what it will take: hard work on the ground. There is no saviour in politics. The party has to do the work from the ground up. That means recruiting new members in every part of the province. It also means opening up to new people. In some cases, riding associations consist of a few people who have been there for years, without ever having won a single election.

That is quite often the case in the Green Party. Look at its current national situation. The last election was a disaster for party, with their leader more focused on party infighting than winning elections.

When they decided to make a change, it was a simple: it was back to the future. Retired leader Elizabeth May returned as co-leader. May and Schreiner have a lot in common. Both born in the United States, they emigrated to Canada.

Like May, Schreiner is a great communicator. But when it comes to organization, the Greens have decided to embrace a leader who took over the party in 2006. Almost 20 years later, the party has topped out at four seats in Parliament and that number is dwindling because of internal party division.

It’s hardly a recipe for government.

Schreiner was an excellent addition to the leaders’ debate as was May, who held her own in every debate she entered. But neither have demonstrated the organizational skills needed for government.

There are already four putative candidates considering a run at the Liberal leadership. And shockingly, they are all current Liberals.

All four have already been elected, and two have served in cabinet.

The party will be reviewing a more open voting process at its annual general meeting in Hamilton next month.

Three of them are racialized Canadians. Mitzie Hunter would be the party’s first Black leader. Yasir Naqvi would be the first Muslim, Ted Hsu would be the first leader of Asian heritage. Nate Erskine-Smith would be the youngest leader ever elected.

Those demographics should be of interest to the “insiders” who want to reach out to a new generation.

None is a saviour.

But all have proven that they are not simply flyby Liberals. Two have been elected federally and provincially in ridings that were very tough to win. Two have survived the wipeout experienced by most candidates in the last election.

Each has something unique to offer. It is insulting to assume that their talent is ignored by 38 insiders looking for another saviour.

These candidates are offering experience, hard work, organizational skills, and a commitment to Liberalism.

The last thing the party needs is a walkover Liberal.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Jason Kenney’s departure was unexpected as he had gathered together a group of key supporters for what was expected to be a victory celebration.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May 23, 2022.

OTTAWA—Internal party warfare can be fatal.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney eked out a bare majority in a party vote on his leadership, only to be forced out by advisers’ pressure.

Kenney’s departure was unexpected as he had gathered together a group of key supporters for what was expected to be a victory celebration.

Days before the United Conservative Party mail-in vote was announced, Kenney claimed that he would stay on if he secured a single-vote majority.

A large gathering of supporters was expecting to see Kenney continue in the job, but instead, he dropped a bombshell last Wednesday night.

In the end, the pressure inside his own party was just too great, so Kenney decided to step down after 48.6 per cent of UCP review voters said they wanted him out.

Meanwhile, the internal fight in the federal Conservative party gets more bitter by the day. Last week, saw candidate slagging candidate, and supporters’ slagging each other.

The climate got so difficult that former finance minister Ed Fast felt compelled to quit his job as Conservative caucus finance critic in opposition to Pierre Poilievre’s promise to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada.

Claims of party-based racism and sleazy politics were traded as candidate Patrick Brown accused Poilievre of aligning with racists in his support of the trucker occupation on Parliament Hill.

Brown supporter, Michelle Rempel-Garner weighed in on the racism theme, accusing Poilievre of being too slow to condemn the race-based slaughter south of the border in Buffalo.

Brown also attacked Poilievre supporters for allegedly criticizing his campaign’s push to sell memberships to racialized minorities.

The past week in the Conservative party has seen the temperature increase as the end of the membership sale period looms.

The federal party Twitter feed was vitriolic, with candidates lining up to accuse each other of stoking the flames of racism. In a media interview, Poilievre promoted his use of “Anglo-Saxon” language, a lift from white supremacists’ vocabulary.

Compare federal Tory accusations to the civilized official Ontario election debate last week. Hosted by TVO’s Steve Paikin and Althia Raj of The Toronto Star, the debate was positively benign in comparison.

Candidates respected rules and time limits. They were careful to attack their opponents on policies, not personalities.

New Democratic Party Leader Andrea Horwath delivered a surprisingly listless performance, absent her usual excellent communication skills.

Later in the week, she joined Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner with a diagnosis of COVID. Both were forced into virtual campaigns in the final stretch of the election.

While the NDP leader flagged, the Green leader shone in the debate. Schreiner was personable, articulate and knowledgeable, particularly on climate change issues.

Premier Doug Ford carried out his usual, aw shucks schtick, claiming friendship with everyone on the podium and defending government policies.

The most controversial was the Conservative promise of a $10-billion investment to build a highway which is not supported by any other leader.

In the last campaign, Ford promised a buck a beer in an attempt to reach out to the blue-collar cohort that was key to his victory.

This time, Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca promised a buck a bus ticket, vowing to take thousands of cars off the road by making public transit more affordable.

The Grit leader also promised to divert Ford’s $10-billion proposed road investment into education, repairing and building schools and cutting class sizes.

Horwath pitched an increase in the minimum wage, in direct contrast to Ford’s decision to abolish planned increases early in his term in office.

The NDP leader primarily focused on her base. But she took a direct hit when the premier claimed that unions were moving away from their traditional support for her party in favour of his re-election.

Ford’s strategy worked, with NDP support slipping after the debate.

That was good news for the Liberals because many anti-Ford voters want to rally behind the party that has the best chance to defeat the current government.

The latest six-point difference keeps Ford in the lead with just two weeks to go before voting day. But the 10-point difference between the Liberals and the New Democrats really favours a potential momentum shift to Del Duca.

As for internal Conservative struggles, on the federal level it is difficult to see how the angry differences among leadership camps of Poilievre, Charest and Brown can be healed in a post-campaign show of unity.

Centrist Conservatives may not elect a party leader.

But they hold the key to 24 Sussex.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.