Canadians generally like to govern from the centre. Most electoral victories have been precipitated by the winning leader showing balance and moderation. Lewis’ victory was not based on moderation, but on exploding the status quo.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on April 6, 2026.

OTTAWA—One thing is certain. The new leader of the federal New Democratic Party has the overwhelming support of his party.

Avi Lewis swept to victory on the first ballot last weekend, and, coincidentally, was also the second choice of most voters who backed other candidates.

With more than 71,000 ballots cast, Lewis secured an easy victory announced at the convention in Winnipeg on March 29. That was the easy part.

Translating that into electoral victory is another story.

Provincial New Democratic leaders kept their distance from Lewis.

British Columbia Premier David Eby did not attend the convention. Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew gave a speech to the convention on the winnability factor.

That was seen as a slap at Lewis because he has already lost two elections while his closest leadership rival, MP Heather McPherson, is one of only a handful non-Conservative Albertans sitting in the House of Commons. There are three Liberals in Alberta, while the Conservatives hold 33 of the 37 seats.

Kinew did join other supporters on stage with Lewis after his victory was announced, and embraced the new leader.

Following the convention, Kinew said: “I just love Avi … and we don’t have to agree on everything to get big things done.”

Other NDP icons were not as effervescent.

Former Alberta premier Rachel Notley introduced McPherson to the convention with a passionate call for “realistic plans.” She focused on McPherson’s capacity to build bridges, in contrast with others.

Notley did not name Lewis, but the inference was there.

In the moments after Lewis’ victory, current Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi issued a statement making it very clear that his provincial party does not include Lewis.

“It is clear that the direction of the federal party, under this leader, someone who openly cheered for the defeat of the Alberta NDP government, is not in the interest of Alberta,” Nenshi said.

Before Lewis won the leadership, former national NDP leader Tom Mulcair was equally critical, suggesting a Lewis landslide would create a “huge problem,” particularly his plan to shut down fossil fuel development.

Mulcair also criticized Lewis for his decision not to run in a byelection and get into the House as soon as possible.

Mulcair told CTV News that he has spoken to dozens of NDP supporters who are worried that Lewis’ radical positions on issues would likely cost them even more seats.

With only six members in the House, the NDP currently do not have party status and would lose their only Quebec member if Alexandre Boulerice quits the party to run in the provincial election for Quebec Solidaire, as he’s hinted.

The “winnability” factor did not appear to influence the voters at the convention.

Rob Ashton, the labour-endorsed candidate at the convention, ran a poor fourth, behind Indigenous social worker Tanille Johnston.

That was a shock because most observers thought labour would deliver more than the 5.91 per cent of the votes Ashton secured on the first ballot.

That number should be concerning for the party because past support in ridings across the country has depended on the involvement of labour workers and funding.

If only five per cent are active at the NDP’s national organizational level, it does not augur well for labour influence in a general election.

Canadians generally like to govern from the centre. Most electoral victories have been precipitated by the winning leader showing balance and moderation.

Lewis’ victory was not based on moderation, but on exploding the status quo. His call for an end to all fossil fuel extraction, coupled with the establishment of government-run groceries stores, is not going to sit well with the majority.

He will definitely bleed support from the Green Party, which is already on life support. But McPherson would have cut into Liberal support by attracting voters who see Carney as a more conservative-Liberal.

With Lewis, there is little chance that left-wing Liberals will move to his party. And that is bad news for the Conservatives.

The way Tories win in Ontario is by Liberals bleeding votes to the left. The split secures victory for the right. Probably the most disappointed leader following the Lewis victory was federal Conservative Pierre Poilievre.

On a sombre but serendipitous note, Lewis’ father, former Ontario NDP leader Stephen Lewis, lived to see his son’s victory. The 88-year-old elder Lewis passed away less than 48 hours after the win was announced.

Avi Lewis is a third-generation NDP leader, following in the footsteps of his father and grandfather, federal leader David Lewis.

Lewis told the convention his grandfather predicted an NDP prime minister in the next generation, and his father the same. Lewis vowed that, with his victory, his own son will not have to wait.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

If an election were held today, there is little doubt that the Liberals would easily be rewarded with a majority. But uncertainty in international affairs, including the war against Iran and trade agreement confusion, could make that support short lived.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on March 16, 2026.

OTTAWA—Another floor-crosser made the Liberals’ day.

Not only does Lori Idlout take them that much closer to a majority government, but it also reinforces the fact that Prime Minister Mark Carney is receiving support from across the broad political spectrum.

Until last week, only the more progressive Conservatives had made the move to cross the floor. In the case of Acadie-Annapolis MP Chris d’Entremont, he hails from the southern shore of Nova Scotia which has often flipped between the Liberals and the Tories.

The easternmost parts of the country have always leaned more heavily to the Liberals, and his riding is usually simply a Liberal/ Conservative battle.

With the exception of the Halifax area, most Atlantic New Democrats have received support based on personal appeal, rather than party label.

Jack Harris, a former long-time NDP MP and former leader of the Newfoundland and Labrador, was the only New Democrat elected in Atlantic Canada in 2015 when then-Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s “sunny days” swept the country.

When the New Democratic Party’s interim leader Don Davies announced the floor crossing of Nunavut MP on March 10, he urged the former New Democrat to put her decision to a riding vote.

“The position of the New Democrats on floor crossing is longstanding and clear. We believe that when someone rejects the decision of their electors and wants to join another party, they should put that decision to their voters.” Davies said in a statement revealing Idlout’s decision to join the Liberals.

For the Liberals, the move was met with elation. The party is now just two seats short of a majority, and with three byelections scheduled for April 13, the numbers could soon increase by at least two.

In addition, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s capacity to attract a New Democrat into his caucus will assure left-leaning Liberals that his leadership is centrist enough to attract their voter base.

Until last week, the floor crossers were all Conservatives. Markham-Unionville MP Michael Ma joined the Liberals in December. He also represents a riding that has historically been a Liberal constituency.

The third Tory, Matt Jeneroux, was a bigger surprise because the Alberta MP doesn’t face the same level of electoral risk locally. In the last election, running as a Conservative, he won with a majority of 50.25 per cent. However, his Liberal opponent increased the Grit vote by almost 20 per cent, aided by the collapse of the New Democrats.

The current NDP slide, with the loss of party status and a leadership race where most candidates cannot speak French, will actually help the Liberals in Jeneroux’s riding.

The long-serving Tory said he crossed the floor because he was impressed by Carney’s speech in Davos, and became convinced that the global crisis demanded strong Canadian government leadership. That opened the door to his support for Carney, and a move that could also reinforce his personal popularity in the riding.

Likewise, in certain urban ridings in Alberta—and definitely in British Columbia—the Liberals’ capacity to attract former New Democrat voters will determine whether or not they can secure a majority government.

Carney has been making positive international waves and that reflects back on his popularity in Canada.

If an election were held today, there is little doubt that the Liberals would easily be rewarded with a majority.

But uncertainty in international affairs—including the war against Iran and trade agreement confusion—could make that support short lived.

Thus far, for as a non-politician, Carney has handled the situation with aplomb and insight. People trust him, and some of the most frequent comments relate to the fact that he is not a lifelong politician.

His business background and international, bureaucratic experience position him as someone who literally can make political decisions without appearing like a politician.

Davies came out early on the Idlout resignation, hoping to get ahead of the story. But even floor-crossings don’t seem to hurt this prime minister. In explaining her move, Idlout underscored the fact that that Carney is the first prime minister from the North, given his birthplace in Fort Smith, N.W.T.

She also lauded him for investments already made in Nunavut, one of the reasons she supported the last budget and helped the minority government avoid defeat.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is claiming “backroom deals” are designed to “seize a costly majority that voters reject, which will enable Liberals to balloon debt, inflate the cost of living, block resources and turn criminals loose on our streets.”

Contrary to Poilievre’s claim, the deals seem to enhance Carney’s popularity.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

While current popular support trends remain close between the two parties, Mark Carney’s personal popularity is in the stratosphere relative to Pierre Poilievre’s.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on November 24, 2025.

OTTAWA–The drama of a budget vote had every political animal in the country on the edge of their seat.

And in the end, it was a cliffhanger. But in reality, the outcome should not have been a surprise to anyone.

Having just come off an election this past spring, there was zero appetite to go back to the polls for most political parties.

The only leader who could have benefited from an election is Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. A ‘no’ vote would have meant that his mandated January 2026 party review would be cancelled.

Poilievre is probably feeling fairly comfortable, given the party review vote will be held in the middle of winter in Calgary. That is the basis for his strength, and much of his support is from Members of Parliament whose purpose in politics is ideological.

Approximately 40 members of the Conservative caucus are rabidly anti-choice, while another three dozen have expressed their opposition to abortion during the election.

Politicians who are elected because of an ideology are less likely to care about winning.

The party members who do care about winning are circling the wagons in anticipation of the January opportunity to replace the leader.

Former party insider Dimitri Soudas has been openly critical of Poilievre, and as last week’s events proved, Ontario Premier Doug Ford is also no friend of the official opposition leader.

When Ford was asked about a potential federal election, he basically threw his federal cousins under the bus. The premier said so many nice things about Prime Minister Mark Carney that an observer would have thought they shared a party.

Some have even written that Carney’s budget is progressive conservative in nature.

Ford is obviously well-organized in Ontario, and Soudas’ political roots in Quebec are deep. Both of these provinces are pivotal to winning any federal election. While Conservatives in Quebec and Ontario are not ideologues, they are used to winning at the provincial and federal levels.

If they have decided that Poilievre is not a winnable candidate, they could cause problems for him in the January vote.

Hence a federal election would have allowed Poilievre to focus on the external opposition to the government, not the internal opposition within his own ranks.

The New Democrats are in the middle of their own leadership race, so the potential of an election would be unthinkable for them.

Even though they publicly opposed the budget, they allowed it to survive by securing two abstentions. NDP abstainers included Lori Idlout and Gord Johns. Idlout did not want to vote against the budget because it included a major investment in her riding of Nunavut.

Interim NDP leader Don Davies told the media after the vote that his party did not want for force an election; therefore, he approved the two abstentions.

As for the Tories, one of the abstainers, Shannon Stubbs, said she acting on doctor’s orders while the other, Matt Jeneroux, has already disclosed his dissatisfaction with his party by announcing he will not be seeking re-election.

Some thought he might cross the floor to the Liberals, following the example of Nova Scotian Chris d’Entremont who left the Conservative caucus on Nov. 4 because he said he didn’t feel represented there. Rumours swirled about other potential floor crossings, but none have materialized to date.

The Liberals will have to hope that some occur because, in minority government, there could be similar, but unsuccessful votes in the next budget, or on a supply motion in the fall.

Poilievre isn’t the only one hoping that he wins his leadership review in the New Year.

Most Liberals believe he is their ticket to remain in government.

While current popular support trends remain close between the two parties, Carney’s personal popularity is in the stratosphere relative to Poilievre’s.

If the budget vote had failed on Nov. 17, there was a good chance that the current polling numbers could have led to a Liberal majority government.

Carney looked cool, calm, and collected on the day of the cliffhanger, probably because he was in a no-lose situation.

Had the election been called, his personal popularity would definitely have outstripped that of the leader of the opposition.

A budget win gives him a few more months to prove to the Canadian people that he is the leader best positioned to pivot away from dependence on economic integration with the United States.

Carney’s global view, and business experience have helped capture the confidence of Canadians.

As long as Poilievre is leading the Tories, Carney has good reason to smile.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Improving the lives of Canadians didn’t reward the NDP, but instead benefitted the Liberals. New Democrats have a lot of thinking ahead of them.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 8, 2025.

The New Democratic Party officially launched the call for its new leader last week.

The result will be announced in Winnipeg at the party’s national convention March 29, 2026.

Thus far, there are a few names floating around as potential candidates. One is current Edmonton MP Heather McPherson, and another is recent federal candidate Avi Lewis. Party activist Yves Engler has made it known that he plans to run.

Lewis has a solid political name in New Democratic circles as the son of former Ontario NDP leader Stephen Lewis, and the grandson of federal leader David Lewis.

He is also married to Naomi Klein, an author and influencer in her own right. Klein and Lewis co-authored the “Leap Manifesto,” in 2015, proposing major changes to fight climate change, income inequality, racism and colonialism.

The NDP declined to endorse the manifesto at a national convention, punting the issue to local associations.

Lewis subsequently ran in two federal elections in different British Columbia seats. He came third in both races.

The situation facing the New Democrats is quite different today than it was a decade ago. At that point, NDP leader Thomas Mulcair had a shot at forming the government until he ended up going too far to the right and costing the party the 2015 election.

In the last Parliament, leader Jagmeet Singh tied his fortunes to building better social policy for the county, including the establishment of national dental care and a move toward more universal pharmacare.

His push for social equity actually ended up benefitting the Liberals, with their record achievements convincing some NDP voters to switch to the Liberals to prevent the election of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Liberals benefitted from the NDP’s work on social policy, and it cost the New Democrats dearly—electorally and financially.

The party’s election results earlier this year were deemed “an unmitigated disaster” by long-serving former New Democrat MP Charlie Angus.

The party lost official status—being reduced to seven seats—and the number of ridings that garnered 10 per cent of the vote has been reported to be fewer than 50 out of 343.

That means that at least 293 ridings will not be eligible for any refund of some of their spending based on a formula set out by the Canada Elections Act.

Not only will the party be looking for new ways to raise money, it will not benefit from the riding rebate that keeps many local organizations alive when their party is not in government.

Money will be an issue in the leadership campaign, and not only because the party is in financial trouble.

The NDP historically receives support from unions across the country. But during the last election campaign, that relationship seemed to be frayed, with the Conservatives managing to secure some support from LiUNA, representing construction labourers, Canada’s Building Trades, and the Ontario wing of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Construction Council.

Those unions are not as close to the New Democrats as the public sector unions, but there will be an internal debate on whether the party should move away from its dependence on union support.

While the New Democrats carry on an internal debate, with candidates required to enlist at least 500 supporters from five regions of the country in order to run, other parties will also be following the race closely.

The Conservatives need the New Democrats to get stronger in order to cut into the Liberal vote. And Liberals need to be careful that if they move too far to the right under Prime Minister Mark Carney, their left flank could be exposed to poaching from the NDP.

The prime minister is currently making the right moves on big projects, and getting lots of support from the business community.

But, at the end of the day, he needs support from the “elbows up” crowd: ordinary Canadians who love their country and believe that we are all in this together.

Those Canadians would be more likely to shift over to the New Democrats if they feel the Liberals are getting too cozy with big business. Their move to the left could put the Conservatives in government by splitting the centre-left vote in tight riding fights.

For the Tories to win, they need the New Democrats to be stronger, so expect much positive spin about the NDP from the Conservatives.

Liberals need to keep the NDP weak. The sad story for Singh is that he aligned with the government on public policy that ended up enhancing Canada’s social policy underpinnings.

Improving the lives of Canadians didn’t reward him. Instead, it benefitted the Liberals.

New Democrats have a lot of thinking ahead of them.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

The Liberal leader is leading in all demographic groups except for men aged 35 to 54

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on April 7, 2025.

OTTAWA—Women are stampeding to the Liberals in this election.

The most recent Ipsos Reid poll showed that, for women over the age of 55, Prime Minister Mark Carney holds a 27-point lead over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

The Liberal leader is leading in all demographic groups except for men aged 35 to 54.

But the startling gap between women and men is worth examining.

Poilievre didn’t help himself last week when he launched his housing strategy claiming that women’s biological clock would run out before a Liberal housing program would help.

“I don’t think any woman wants to hear Pierre Poilievre talking about their body, period!” was the immediate retort from New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh.

Critics on social media questioned why Poilievre plans to cancel national childcare if he is so interested in women having babies.

The social gains introduced by the Liberals over the last decade are particularly important for women.

Obviously, childcare is huge, and the dental care program is especially important for older women on fixed incomes who cannot afford dental work. Ditto for school lunch programs and pharmacare, including free birth control, IUDs, hormonal implants, and the morning-after pill.

Poilievre is definitely not on board with national childcare, and has been ambiguous about dental and pharmacare. He has promised that no person currently covered under those programs would be cut off, but is silent on the extension of the programs to others. He also voted against the National School Food Program, and is silent on its continuation.

These are issues of particular interest to women.

It is not lost on them that several dozen members of the Conservative caucus have pledged to support limitations on abortion through private members’ bills. Poilievre himself, in his very first speech to Parliament, spoke out in opposition to public health funding for transgender medical services.

The Trump Supreme Court nominations that resulted in an end to reproductive choice in the United States, and the United States president decision to abolish equal rights policies for women, minorities, gays, and transsexuals has frightened Canadian women, as well. If it could happen there, what about us? Poilievre doesn’t pass that smell test.

Carney leads dramatically in net-positive favourability. That sum is the number achieved when you deduct unfavourable from the favourable viewpoints to discover what people think about each candidate.

Carney is enjoying a positive favourability among men and women. With men, the net range is 18-plus while for women it is 26-plus, according to the same poll.

The difference between Carney’s favourability rating and Poilievre’s unfavourable is stunning. Three in five women—at 61 per cent—say they have an unfavourable view of Poilievre.

Carney has also managed to attract the majority of young voters, a crucial element in Justin Trudeau’s 2015 majority government victory.

Forty-five per cent of young men between the ages of 18 and 34 now support the Liberals, and 46 per cent of men over 54 years old support the Liberals.

We are almost four weeks away from the vote, and the leaders’ debates could both have an effect on the outcome.

Poilievre has been cautioned publicly by members of his own party that he needs to pivot away from the anti-Liberal message to an anti-Trump stance.

But the challenge for the Conservative leader is that a significant percentage of his base also supports Trump. So if he is too tough on the American president, he will lose supporters, as well.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who is busy courting Trumpian podcasters and running her own “Trash Canada” campaign, is stoking the flames of separation in Alberta, which is decidedly unhelpful to her federal leader.

Poilievre not only has had to pivot on message that Canada is broken, he also has to attack Trump. The “lost Liberal decade” phrase, which peppers all his public declarations, seems to reinforce the notion that Canada is broken, even while his Bring it Home/Canada First mantra sounds like a page out of the Trump playbook.

Of course, Trump’s chaotic approach to government is ensuring that his prints are all over this Canadian election.

His ill-advised Liberation Day announcement of worldwide tariffs on April 2 has certainly caught everyone’s attention. Even if the American Senate is successful in reversing the emergency resolution that allowed the president to impose tariffs, it is going to take time for this to happen.

Financial markets and ordinary citizens in the United States are already very nervous about the cost of these tariffs.

But Trump’s tenure is four years, and Poilievre only has three weeks.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Liberals are positioned to fight Donald Trump. Thanks to Alberta’s premier, the Conservatives seem to be ‘in sync’ with him.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on March 31, 2025.

OTTAWA—With friends like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre needs no enemies.

In the first week of a very short federal election campaign, Smith managed to solidify the ballot question in the Liberals’ favour.

Her major gaffe involved an intervention with the White House, asking American officials to delay tariffs until after the election because that would help Poilievre. Smith stated Poilievre was “in sync” with U.S. President Donald Trump.

All this was recorded in an interview Smith gave to Breitbart, a right-wing podcast that’s been advocating a constitutional amendment to make Trump president for life.

Instead of apologizing for foreign interference in an election, when confronted, Smith simply doubled down and claimed this was her lobbying effort for Canada.

The Alberta New Democrats did not agree, organizing the unveiling of a Canada flag in front of the Alberta legislature to underscore their belief in our country.

Smith added insult to injury by flying to Florida on March 27 to headline an extremist American fundraiser for an Islamophobic group that, according to Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi, denies the history of slavery.

Smith was set to share the stage with Ben Shapiro, who has called Canada “a silly country” and the “Puerto Rico of the North.” Shapiro believes that Canada should be annexed as the 51st state without the right to vote.

Despite multiple requests to cancel her trip, Smith spoke in the Alberta legislature where she blamed the controversy on Liberals because the federal government had asked premiers to join in an all-in tariff lobbying effort.

Smith claimed the opposition to her Florida fundraiser came from eastern Canadian media elites, and the Liberals and New Democrats. She insisted that Albertans supported her.

The more she speaks out, the more Canadians learn about the deep ties between Canada’s Conservatives and MAGA supporters south of the border.

With the American vice-president joining his wife on an uninvited trip to Greenland, Canadians are taking the annexation threat very seriously.

Trump has refused to rule out the use of force to take over the island, but the local appetite for annexation is close to zero.

In the recent election, only one per cent of Greenland voters supported a party that promoted unification discussions. That party was the only one that did not get a single seat in parliament.

Back in this country, the ballot question for the April 28 election appears to be a vote on which leader is best placed to fight American tariffs and annexation.

Poilievre is trying to portray himself as the person with the chops to fight Trump’s tariffs, but quisling Smith’s cosy relationship with extremist Trump supporters is killing that narrative. Smith’s position is not lost on Canadian voters, and has helped to send Tory polling numbers downward.

The turnaround for the Liberals has been nothing short of astonishing. It is so positive that even a former Nova Scotia minister who left politics for “family reasons” made a surprise decision to return. Sean Fraser said last week it was a personal request from the leader that made him reverse his retirement decision, even though a successor for his riding nomination had already been chosen.

Other star candidates like a former mayor of Vancouver, the former acting mayor of Toronto, and well-known journalists Evan Solomon and Anthony Germain have jumped into the fray for the Liberals as the party’s popularity continues to rise.

The first week of the campaign has Liberals on a high.

Polling numbers across multiple platforms show that Prime Minister Mark Carney has eliminated Poilievre’s lead, and has moved to top spot.

The NDP has felt the pain of this Liberal swing because polls show leader Jagmeet Singh moving to single digits.

As Trump continues to threaten more tariffs and annexation, Liberal numbers continue to rise. Carney is viewed as the best choice to stare down the American president.

When it comes to the question of affordability, the Conservative leader fares best.

But it looks as though the ballot question will be who is best equipped to fight the United States. Carney’s massive resumé beats Poilievre’s by a mile.

Trump just added 25-per-cent tariffs to the automobile sector, and that is a huge blow to the Canadian economy.

As a pre-emptive strike, Carney announced a plan to fight the tariffs with a $2-billion auto industry fund the morning before Trump’s announcement. Poilievre was campaigning on tax cuts for seniors.

Liberals are positioned to fight Trump. Thanks to Smith, Tories seem to be in tight with him.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

The centre is where the majority of Canadians would like to be. But there’s a big question as to whether Dominic Cardy’s party can become more than just a one-man show.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on August 19, 2024.

OTTAWA—Dominic Cardy registered a new party with Elections Canada this month, planning to field candidates in all upcoming federal byelections.

In an interview with The Toronto Star, the interim leader of the Canadian Future Party says he considers the current federal Conservative leader “terrifying.”

He says he plans to offer a centrist option to voters tired of electoral polarization, telling The Star: “Our tag line is saying we’re not left, not right, (we’re) going forward.”

Ironically, that was the same tag line that led the Liberals to form a minority government in 2021, with their slogan being, “Forward, for everyone.”

The former minister in the New Brunswick’s Progressive Conservative government is no stranger to new parties.

He served as the leader of that province’s New Democratic Party from 2011 until 2017.

He ran unsuccessfully for a seat in the legislature as a New Democrat, but won the same seat as a Progressive Conservative in 2018.

He endorsed Maxime Bernier for the federal Conservative leadership, so if Cardy needs advice on how to make a new party work, he can always reach out to Mad Max.

Both men must realize that in the current political system, building and sustaining a new party is almost impossible.

Just ask the Green Party that has been in existence since 1983.

In the 2004 election, the Green Party, under the leadership of Jim Harris, secured candidates in all ridings and received 4.3 per cent of the popular vote.

When Elizabeth May took the helm in 2006, she again moved the dial for the Greens, taking them to 6.8 per cent of the national popular vote in the 2008 election.

That was the party’s apex, followed by multiple elections which eventually saw the election of three Members of Parliament. May has held her seat in Saanich-Gulf Islands, B.C., since 2011, and is the longest serving woman leader of a political party in Canadian history.

But despite a national showing in multiple elections, the Green Party has never been able to make a real breakthrough.

So how does the Canadian Future Party think it can do things differently?

It is targeting the centre, and claims a membership of former Conservatives, Liberals, and New Democrats, although Cardy has been coy on who those supporters are.

The party hopes to appeal to former Tories who are not happy with the shift to the right that has happened since the party dropped its progressive wing in order to merge with the former Reform Party.

Canadian Future also hope to attract Liberals who think their party has moved too far to the left in its alliance with the New Democratic Party.

The centre is certainly where the majority of Canadians would like to be. But there is a big question as to whether the Cardy party can become more than simply a one-man show.

The party’s standing in the upcoming byelections in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Que., and Winnipeg-Transcona, Man., will be a bellwether of its possibilities.

The party has not managed to secure well-known candidates in either riding, which may be some indication of how uphill the climb will be.

The Liberals are unlikely to give up the coveted centre as it has spelled success for them in the majority of elections since the beginning of Canada.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has moved the party to the left with programs like pharma care, childcare, and dental care. During the pandemic, that move has worked well for Canadians, especially those who were thrown out of work through no fault of their own.

But the chance of another party making any headway when the Conservatives, Liberals, and New Democrats are fighting for votes is unlikely.

The bigger question is: if they get any traction, from whom will the Canadian Future Party skim votes?

Most progressives have already left the Conservative Party, and Poilievre appears to be shaping his campaign far from the centre.

His promise to shut down the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation is sure to scare off centrists, especially those in Atlantic Canada who depend on the public broadcaster for their only local coverage.

Poilievre’s new campaign attacking NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is also not attracting the centre. Instead, he is going hard after the left in order to encourage NDP voters to vault over the Liberals and join the Conservatives.

It is ironic but true that some blue-collar voters are more likely to switch from NDP to Conservative than to ever vote Liberal.

But the centre is still where political victory lies.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on October 13, 2023.

OTTAWA—In politics, timing is everything. Members of the New Democratic Party are finding that out as they meet in Hamilton, Ont., this weekend for their first in-person national convention in five years.

One hot-button resolution presented for consideration was a motion by the “Socialist Caucus” calling on the party to “strengthen its defence of Palestinian human rights by actively campaigning for boycott, divestment and sanctions against the Israeli State until Israel ends its illegal occupation of the Palestinian territories.”

According to party officials, that resolution did not make the cut allocated to those deemed a priority in a party ranking system. However, given the nature of unfolding events in Gaza and Israel, it is expected that someone will table an emergency resolution crafted for convention support.

The convention happens to be in the riding of newly-elected Hamilton Centre MPP Sarah Jama who was already in hot water before her election to the provincial legislature because of anti-Jewish comments.

In a 2021 video, Jama spouted conspiracy theories about the local police, claiming they were protecting Naziism and Jews. She accused successive Israeli leaders of funding the killing of people locally and globally.

On the eve of the March 16, 2023, byelection to replace outgoing NDP leader Andrea Horwath as MPP in Queen’s Park, Jama’s video was widely circulated, prompting new leader Marit Stiles to distance her party from the comments.

“We’ve all ended up at rallies and stuff, where maybe she didn’t use the right choice of words.”

Last week, Stiles was again apologizing for Jama, but resisting calls for the Hamilton Centre MPP’s expulsion from caucus. Jama also apologized for a tweet she sent out immediately following the horrific Hamas attack on innocent Jewish civilians in their homes or attending a music festival.

In the tweet, Jama called for “an end to all occupation of Palestinian land,” claiming the attacks were prompted by “violence and retaliation rooted in settler colonialism that has taken the lives of far too many innocent people.”

She failed to mention the more than 1,000 Jews killed in the attacks, and the taking of more than 150 hostages by Hamas.

Stiles immediately distanced herself from Jama’s viewpoint, saying it didn’t align with party policy. It did, however, align with multiple statements Jama made before she ran for political office.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford and interim Liberal Leader John Fraser have both called for Jama’s ejection from the NDP provincial caucus, a demand that Stiles has rebuffed. She said Jama’s statement stemmed from a “personal impact … as someone with Palestinian family members.”

Stiles may withstand calls for Jama’s ouster, but with the national convention taking place in Jama’s Hamilton riding this weekend, the controversy shines a bright light into crevices of the party that remain divided.

Middle Eastern politics always plays a global role. New Democrats are not the first Canadian politicians splintering on the issue.

The beginning of the end of Annamie Paul as the short-lived leader of the federal Green Party was largely predicated on internal struggles over Israeli-Palestinian politics.

She lost a caucus member to the Liberals because of internal party differences on the Middle East.

The NDP has long been seen on one side of the issue, with multiple resolutions supporting the Palestinians. Under normal circumstances, a resolution to strengthen support for Palestine could be a giant convention yawn, not unexpected but not too newsworthy, either.

But the timing of this convention, on the heels of horrific massacre of hundreds of innocent civilians by a group of terrorists, means whatever happens will make international headlines.

With barbaric images of beheaded children, and brutalized elderly victims, Hamas has managed to forfeit any semblance of a legitimate political movement.

Instead, it has reinforced its reputation as a terrorist organization that has no intention of supporting the existence of the state of Israel.

Multiple observers have focused on the toxic leadership of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Paradoxically, the events of the past week may result in his ouster as the obvious breach of vaunted Israeli security efforts is still unexplained.

How could Hamas carry out such a well-financed and orchestrated attack without anyone in Israeli intelligence getting wind of what was being planned?

It is a security faux pas equivalent to the horrific wakeup call sent to the world on Sept. 11, 2001, with the downing of the twin towers in New York.

No finger-pointing can explain away the utter atrocities that were visited upon innocent civilians while they went about enjoying their normal daily lives.

Supporting Hamas in this disaster would be a huge mistake for Jama and the New Democrats.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 25, 2023.

OTTAWA—Protests and counter-protests on the rights of children to use their chosen pronouns were held across the country last week.

New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh led a counter-protest in Ottawa, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took to X (formerly Twitter) to condemn “hate and its manifestations,” and reiterate his support for the 2SLGBTQ+ community across Canada.

Not surprisingly, Conservative Members of Parliament were silent on the issue, with the Canadian Press reporting that the leader’s office had told them not to discuss the protests with the media or on social media outlets.

A memo, shared with CP, was sent from the leader’s office claiming that protesters against LGBTQ education in the schools have a legitimate point to make about “parental rights.”

Heated clashes in cities across the country led to arrests in Halifax, Vancouver, Victoria, and Ottawa. The issue is heating up as governments in New Brunswick and Saskatchewan have introduced legislation requiring students to get their parents’ permission before teachers can address them in their preferred he/she/they pronoun.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s office may not be able to stop Members of Parliament from weighing in when so many of them were elected thanks to support they received from social conservatives who do not support LGBTQ education in schools. The fact that the opposition leader is trying to keep a lid on comments shows that he understands the issue is a political hot potato that will win his party no new supporters.

As his party’s numbers climb, Poilievre has to be very careful to appeal to voters who are leery of social conservatism. Chances are the solidarity of potential power will not be enough to silence those in the caucus who got their political feet wet on recruiting social conservatives.

It is no coincidence that when Leslyn Lewis first ran for her party’s leadership in 2020, she was the first choice of Saskatchewan Tories. She swept the province where the premier and his government have recently enacted legislation to prevent minors from changing their pronouns without their parents’ permission.

Anti-trans rallies were organized across Canada last week by a group identifying itself as the “One Million March For Children,” which said it stood against gender ideology. But the marches were countered by groups defending the rights of 2SLGBTQ+ youth. Some are concerned that adolescents should not be outed to parents, and others wanted to support those teenagers who have self-identified as trans or gay.

Hate crimes against the gay community are on the rise, according to a report by Statistics Canada released last December. The report stated that police-reported hate crimes increased by 60 per cent between 2019 and 2021, reaching their highest level in five years.

Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford promised to change the sex education curriculum when he was courting socially conservative voters during his leadership campaign. However, while in government, he was accused of re-introducing a sex education curriculum that was virtually identical to the one he had criticized during his campaign. Ford learned quickly that modifying sex education is probably not a top-of-mind priority for most Ontarians.

Poilievre is likely discovering the same challenge at the federal level. But how is he going to be able to stop his right-wing caucus members from aligning themselves with the thousands who rallied across the country against sex education involving the 2SLGBTQ+ community? The temperature is rising on both sides, so it is difficult to see how the Conservatives are going to be able to stay out of the fray.

And when the leader of the New Democrats makes it his business to lead the counter-demonstration, he obviously understands the political issues at stake.

Most Canadians don’t really involve themselves in the adolescent pronoun debate. However, they do support rights for the LGBTQ community. With the advent of same-sex marriage and support for choice in sexual orientation, most people appreciate the wave of equality that has evolved in the past two decades.

But the small percentage of people who oppose transgender teaching in schools has unleashed the wrath of the silent minority. The number of parents and grandparents who showed up last week to support their transgender progeny could translate into a significant voting bloc in the next election.

If the issue provokes enough interest, it will actually move votes in the next election. Therein the reason why the Tories don’t want to be on the record with any comment when it comes to transgender policies in local school sectors.

Their political silence is golden. But it may not be sustainable.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on June 19, 2023.

OTTAWA—A Conservative private member’s attempt to revive the abortion debate by conferring unique legal status on pregnant women was clobbered in the House last week.

The governing Liberals united with New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois to defeat Bill C-311 by almost a two-to-one margin.

Opponents of the bill introduced by Saskatchewan Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall numbered 205. Supporters mustered only 113 votes.

Under most circumstances, that should be the end of the story. But with the Conservatives leading in national public opinion polls, and their strong support for the bill, it will only be a matter of time before the question of the legal status of fetuses ends up being litigated when a future Wagantall bill is passed.

Witness the debate concerning the Violence Against Pregnant Women Act in Parliament to understand why this legislation could represent a threat to legal abortions in the country.

The United States is already experiencing a wave of anti-women and anti-gay legislation as a result of a Supreme Court ruling that put legal abortions at risk in parts of their country.

Canadian pundits said this could not happen here, but another item in the news last week paints a different picture.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith named her cabinet, including a health minister with a strong bias against legal abortions. Adriana LaGrange served as education minister in the United Conservative Party government of former premier Jason Kenney. In that role, she presided over one of the largest public sector cuts in Alberta history, firing 20,000 educational assistants, substitute teachers, bus drivers and maintenance staff.

With LaGrange at the helm and Smith’s well-documented ruminations on private medicine, it likely won’t be too long before the new government moves to start charging for more health services.

Even more concerning is the minister’s opposition to legal abortion in the province. Her maiden speech in the Alberta legislature four years ago was entitled, “The lord leads me where he needs me.”

While she was a school trustee, LaGrange served on the provincial board of Alberta Pro-Life. In her first provincial election, she was backed by RightNow, an activist anti-abortion organization.

As education minister, LaGrange introduced a controversial piece of legislation requiring parental notification when any student joined a gay-straight alliance club. The original protection from parental notification was designed to protect those students who could face danger if their parents became aware of their sexual orientation. Students were also denied the right to use the word ‘gay’ or ‘queer’ in describing after-school clubs, and administrators were permitted to keep their inclusivity policies secret.

If LaGrange was controversial in education, there is no reason to think she won’t repeat that history in health. Those who think that access to abortion is safe across the country need to face facts.

Wagantall in Saskatchewan and LaGrange in Alberta are only the tip of the iceberg. When the bill on pregnant women was introduced, the Conservative party was pretty much unanimous in support, starting with the leader.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has said that he will not introduce legislation on abortion, but he has also stated that other members of his caucus are free to do so.

He is the only leader ambivalent about his support for the LGBTQ2S+ communities, refusing to attend Pride parades or showing visible support for those struggling with a wave of homophobia across the country.

With a raucous parliamentary session coming to close, Poilievre’s popularity continues to outstrip that of the governing Liberals.

Abacus Data released a poll last week in which 35 per cent of the respondents said they would vote Tory if an election were held today. That number had increased three percentage points since the previous month, while the Liberals were down two points at 28 per cent.

The appetite for electoral change is there and the Conservatives are the beneficiaries. Approximately 80 per cent of those polled said it is time for a change in government.

Polls move, and most would agree that both Poilievre and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are stellar campaigners. The fight may come right down to the wire in a tight election in 2025 (or whenever it happens).

If there is a Conservative majority win, do not be surprised if limitations on women’s reproductive rights and rights for those in the gay community resurface.

Premier Smith did not hide her intention to move toward health privatization.

Her party has many abortion opponents sitting in the legislature. A key one is now occupying the health minister’s chair.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.