By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 18, 2023.

OTTAWA—It’s nervous Nellie time in the Liberal caucus.

As the Conservatives climbs in the polls, the Liberals’ angst increases exponentially.

If one were a fly on the wall at the recent Liberal caucus in London, Ont., they would have been privy to some serious rumblings of discontent.

For most of the caucus, it was the first meeting after the cabinet shuffle.

One of the by-products of a shuffle is internal dissent. Those who were not promoted likely believe this was their last chance to accede to cabinet.

So, the discipline of power that usually muffles those who wish to remain in the favour of the leadership is weaker than it was before the change.

In addition, the caucus is spooked by the continuing poll climb by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

His simple, negative messaging about the country is obviously hitting a raw nerve with many Canadians.

That messaging, especially on social media, has resulted in a slow, steady climb in popularity to the point where most polls have the Conservatives substantially ahead of the Liberals.

That also contributes to the nervousness. Many Liberal members have little or no experience with running behind in the polls.

Since 2015, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his team have managed to lap the Conservatives in just about every part of the country except Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Now the numbers in Ontario, and even Quebec, are changing, which has people asking questions of the leadership.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller weighed in on the rising temperature, saying Liberals have not decided exactly how to counterattack Poilievre’s “garbage” attacks. He told the media that his colleagues did not want to bring themselves down to a level of politics that they have foresworn.

“There’s a tension as to how to engage … whether you fight fire with fire and bring yourself down … there is a struggle and attention generally as to how to deal with a person like that, that Canadian politics, in particular, hasn’t seen much of,” said Miller.

The minister is right that the negativity in Poilievre’s messaging is not politics as usual. Most official opposition leaders try to build their image as thoughtful prime ministers in waiting.

But messaging on social media has changed radically in the past decade.

The depth of anger is amplified by voices that feed on negative posts from like-minded political naysayers.

Back in the last century, those negative voices also existed. “Nattering nabobs of negativism,” was a term coined by American vice-president Spiro Agnew, when he was complaining about the media coverage of the Nixon administration.

He accused the media of forming their own 4-H club, a riff on rural youth organizations, made up of “hopeless, hysterical hypochondriacs of history.”

The same and more could be said today, but the reach of social media is much broader now.

The fact that Poilievre’s numbers have increased most rapidly amongst young people reinforces the power of social messaging. They are the ones gathering most of their information from social media sources.

They are also least likely to vote, which makes the short-term focus on numbers a bit of a mug’s game.

Those numbers could change and change drastically. When former prime minister Kim Campbell called the 1993 election, her party was in majority government territory.

At the end of the campaign, the party ended up with two seats.

Nothing is written in stone.

But the prime minister and his team would be well-advised to heed the ‘nervous Nellies’ in the caucus.

Caucus members are like the canaries in the mine, giving the leader a hint of the toxic atmosphere that the party is facing in the body politic.

It may be nice to be nice. As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said back in 2015, sunny days were back again.

But when storm clouds are on the horizon, they cannot be ignored.

The leadership needs to start responding in kind to Poilievre’s negative attacks. Learn from nature. You need to fight fire with fire.

The government also needs to start telling Canadians how it plans to make life better.

It is not enough for politicians to make housing announcements. Announcements need to be followed up with focused media buys to let people know what major federal initiatives are under way.

A $4-billion housing accelerator program is worth talking about.

That means serious advertising dollars to accompany the work that is actually being done.

It is fine to be the nice guy in politics.

But, unfortunately, everyone knows what they say about nice guys. They finish last.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps

First published in The Hill Times on November 12, 2018.

OTTAWA—Last week’s midterm elections reinforced the reality of the United States as a deeply divided nation.

The voting population appears to be split down the middle. Divisions are even more stark when it comes to race and the urban-rural divide.

With only two Senators elected per state, predominantly Republican rural areas become disproportionately important in that Chamber.

With the same number of Senators representing Rhode Island and California, it is much easier to get a majority of seats via a minority of voters.

And the unfettered spending in the American political system begs the question of what really constitutes a democracy.

But significant Democratic Congressional gains will definitively change the flavour of the second half of President Donald Trump’s first term in office.

The comfortable Democratic majority will position the president to blame his own failures on political gridlock, with enemies poised to poison his tenure.

If anyone thought midterm challenges would moderate the president’s vitriol, it took only a single day to abandon that notion.

With the sacking of attorney general Jeff Sessions, and the revocation of press credentials for CNN White House reporter Jim Acosta, the White House was quick to let the world know that it would be nasty business as usual.

And Trump has every reason to repeat his divisive tactics. Notwithstanding all the negativity of the past two years, he is still scoring big with his base and bringing other recalcitrant supporters on side.

One woman interviewed during a voting day exit poll specified that she was voting for the policies, not the person. Her belief was that the president’s character was irrelevant as long as he supported positions favourable to her views.

Others are simply happy with the economy and believe the president can take some credit for that.

A positive economic benchmark may not last forever, as all indicators are pointing to a slowdown amidst international uncertainty and some potential for inflation.

Trump’s bitter trade disputes with China, Canada, and even Europe, will also effect the stability of the international economy, which could spell trouble.

The post-election Sessions’ firing is probably the clearest sign that the Russian investigation carried out by Robert Mueller looms as the largest threat to Trump’s hope for reelection.

With the Democrats regaining control of the House of Representatives, they will have a number of opportunities to dig deeper into the financial labyrinth of the Trump family fortune and its potential relationship to foreign powers.

The Democrats have secured a comfortable majority in the House, with new, younger female and minority faces poised to lead the charge.

One of Trump’s most effective slogans has been “Clean the swamp.” Those three little words imply that getting the dirt out of Washington will be his first priority. Instead, it may be his dirt that is about to be excavated.

The noose is tightening around the president’s neck. That is the only explanation for the firing of his attorney general. His next move could be to work with an increased Republican Senate majority to put an end to the Mueller investigation.

But the Democrats have already laid down a marker. As soon as the Sessions axe was dropped, key Democrat leader Chuck Schumer warned that any move to derail Mueller would throw the country into a constitutional crisis that could result in Trump’s impeachment.

The majority control now enjoyed by the Democrats in Congress will give them all the tools they need to dig deeper. They have already asked for the production of all documents related to Sessions as they intend to investigate his firing.

Sessions’ former chief of staff has been named as his replacement. He is a bellicose anti-Mueller opponent, who has already been warned to recuse himself from interference in the Russian special investigation.

The defiant tone that Trump exhibited in the presidential press conference signals that his war with the media will not end any time soon.

The decision to revoke CNN credentials will also prompt a backlash from other media outlets. At the same press conference, Trump verbally dressed down two black female reporters, including a PBS journalist who has become one of his favourite targets.

Trump is also facing renewed calls to produce his tax returns. He now says they are too complicated and that people simply will not be able to understand them.

But the major Congressional shakeup last week guarantees that these issues will now take centre stage.

Washington’s mid-course correction will make politics uglier. It’s hard to believe it could get any worse.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.