After devoting 11 years to federal politics, the Calgary-Nose Hill Member of Parliament would be a shoo-in for a senior position if Brown were to win the leadership. Michelle Rempel Garner would likely have been in contention as well if Jean Charest were victorious, as he could win the leadership only with the support of the Brown team.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on June 20, 2022.

OTTAWA—Michelle Rempel Garner must be reading the tea leaves.

She was running the federal Conservative leadership campaign for Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown.

And mid-way through the campaign, the Twitter-verse has been filled with stories that she will likely be leaving federal politics to run for the top job of Alberta’s United Conservative Party.

Using Twitter as her preferred platform, Rempel Garner announced last week that she was stepping down as Brown campaign co-chair to give “serious consideration” to a provincial leadership bid.

“I owe it to Albertans to give this critical decision my full and complete attention,” she wrote on Twitter.

Rempel Garner went on to say that “I continue to be inspired by the optimism of Albertans, who have been through much but remain hopeful. We are—and always have been—worth fighting for. I’ll have more to say soon. Giddyup.”

In reality, Garner Rempel could pursue twin goals, a provincial leadership race along with the co-chairing responsibilities for her chosen leadership candidate.

There is more than a month separating the federal conclusion and the provincial vote, and much of the work on both fronts is carried out via internet and Zoom.

The sale of Conservative memberships is closed on the federal scene, so there is no need to travel extensively to recruit new members.

Instead, the campaign is entering the persuasion stage, where the candidates themselves need to keep travelling in order to attract undecided voters or switch those who have committed to an opponent.

Her decision to step aside comes as the final membership numbers place Pierre Poilievre in an unbeatable position. His campaign claims to have sold double the number of memberships of the Brown team.

Rempel Garner’s withdrawal is a blow to the Brampton mayor’s leadership bid, but not an unexpected turn of events.

The Alberta Member of Parliament is a proud, gun-toting Albertan and many observers feel her place in a provincial race would be as front-runner.

As for Brown, Jean Charest and other federal leadership candidates, the membership deadline confirmed the Poilievre front-runner status.

He is also extremely popular with current Conservative voters. Last week’s Léger poll claimed his support among Tory voters is almost triple that of his closest rival, Charest.

Poilievre was the choice of 44 per cent of Tory supporters while his nearest challenger, former Quebec premier Charest, polled at just 14 per cent. Brown was in the single digits at four per cent, clearly a signal that he has not resonated with the group he needs to win. Those numbers are almost reversed when it comes to polling opinions of Liberals and New Democrats. They believe Charest would be the best Tory leader. Charest polled 25 per cent support from Liberal and NDP supporters, while Brown polled at 11 per cent. Front-runner Poilievre garnered only six per cent support from those who vote Liberal or NDP.

But he doesn’t need those voters to win the leadership.

He only needs Tories. And Rempel Garner’s early departure is a clear signal that he is going to get them.

After devoting 11 years to federal politics, the Calgary-Nose Hill Member of Parliament would be a shoo-in for a senior position if Brown were to win the leadership. She would likely have been in contention as well if Charest were victorious, as he could win the leadership only with the support of the Brown team.

As for Poilievre, she has already burned that bridge. Two months ago, Rempel Garner took to the internet to call out Poilievre as a “fringe party on the right” leader and she went on to say “we can’t go through another leadership with the result being somebody who is unelectable.”

But it appears as though that is exactly what her party is going to do. Two Brown supporters in the caucus recently defected to Poilievre and the departure of Rempel Garner leaves Brown with only one Member of Parliament supporting his leadership.

Poilievre has 56 MPs supporting his candidacy, so the list of those seeking senior positions on his team is very long and there won’t be any room for Garner Rempel in the event the front-runner wins.

So, the timing for Garner Rempel to switch to provincial politics is perfect. She is well-known in Alberta and currently represents one of the most Conservative ridings in the country.

She will enter a crowded field of candidates, but her background and experience could reward her with an easy win. Her toughest job will then be building those Conservative bridges back.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Jason Kenney’s departure was unexpected as he had gathered together a group of key supporters for what was expected to be a victory celebration.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May 23, 2022.

OTTAWA—Internal party warfare can be fatal.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney eked out a bare majority in a party vote on his leadership, only to be forced out by advisers’ pressure.

Kenney’s departure was unexpected as he had gathered together a group of key supporters for what was expected to be a victory celebration.

Days before the United Conservative Party mail-in vote was announced, Kenney claimed that he would stay on if he secured a single-vote majority.

A large gathering of supporters was expecting to see Kenney continue in the job, but instead, he dropped a bombshell last Wednesday night.

In the end, the pressure inside his own party was just too great, so Kenney decided to step down after 48.6 per cent of UCP review voters said they wanted him out.

Meanwhile, the internal fight in the federal Conservative party gets more bitter by the day. Last week, saw candidate slagging candidate, and supporters’ slagging each other.

The climate got so difficult that former finance minister Ed Fast felt compelled to quit his job as Conservative caucus finance critic in opposition to Pierre Poilievre’s promise to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada.

Claims of party-based racism and sleazy politics were traded as candidate Patrick Brown accused Poilievre of aligning with racists in his support of the trucker occupation on Parliament Hill.

Brown supporter, Michelle Rempel-Garner weighed in on the racism theme, accusing Poilievre of being too slow to condemn the race-based slaughter south of the border in Buffalo.

Brown also attacked Poilievre supporters for allegedly criticizing his campaign’s push to sell memberships to racialized minorities.

The past week in the Conservative party has seen the temperature increase as the end of the membership sale period looms.

The federal party Twitter feed was vitriolic, with candidates lining up to accuse each other of stoking the flames of racism. In a media interview, Poilievre promoted his use of “Anglo-Saxon” language, a lift from white supremacists’ vocabulary.

Compare federal Tory accusations to the civilized official Ontario election debate last week. Hosted by TVO’s Steve Paikin and Althia Raj of The Toronto Star, the debate was positively benign in comparison.

Candidates respected rules and time limits. They were careful to attack their opponents on policies, not personalities.

New Democratic Party Leader Andrea Horwath delivered a surprisingly listless performance, absent her usual excellent communication skills.

Later in the week, she joined Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner with a diagnosis of COVID. Both were forced into virtual campaigns in the final stretch of the election.

While the NDP leader flagged, the Green leader shone in the debate. Schreiner was personable, articulate and knowledgeable, particularly on climate change issues.

Premier Doug Ford carried out his usual, aw shucks schtick, claiming friendship with everyone on the podium and defending government policies.

The most controversial was the Conservative promise of a $10-billion investment to build a highway which is not supported by any other leader.

In the last campaign, Ford promised a buck a beer in an attempt to reach out to the blue-collar cohort that was key to his victory.

This time, Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca promised a buck a bus ticket, vowing to take thousands of cars off the road by making public transit more affordable.

The Grit leader also promised to divert Ford’s $10-billion proposed road investment into education, repairing and building schools and cutting class sizes.

Horwath pitched an increase in the minimum wage, in direct contrast to Ford’s decision to abolish planned increases early in his term in office.

The NDP leader primarily focused on her base. But she took a direct hit when the premier claimed that unions were moving away from their traditional support for her party in favour of his re-election.

Ford’s strategy worked, with NDP support slipping after the debate.

That was good news for the Liberals because many anti-Ford voters want to rally behind the party that has the best chance to defeat the current government.

The latest six-point difference keeps Ford in the lead with just two weeks to go before voting day. But the 10-point difference between the Liberals and the New Democrats really favours a potential momentum shift to Del Duca.

As for internal Conservative struggles, on the federal level it is difficult to see how the angry differences among leadership camps of Poilievre, Charest and Brown can be healed in a post-campaign show of unity.

Centrist Conservatives may not elect a party leader.

But they hold the key to 24 Sussex.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Canadians would never support a prime minister who could not speak English. So why would we think it’s okay to elect a prime minister who fumbles his French?

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on February 3, 2020.

OTTAWA—Jean Chrétien did not speak a word of English when he was first elected to Parliament at the age of 30.

But he understood that to participate fully in Canada’s political process you need to speak both official languages.

In the end, his command of English opened up the top job in the country. While some said his language could be mangled, he knew exactly how to make it work.

During the height of the salmon wars between Canada and United States, then U.S. vice-president Al Gore had flown into Ottawa for an emergency meeting on the matter.

The prime minister hosted a small group in his dining room at 24 Sussex. It was summer and the air-conditioning was broken.

Brian Tobin, then fisheries minister, was hoping to bring Gore around to Canada’s point of view. The message was not exactly subtle.

The first course was smoked salmon, and the second was served on china featuring chinook salmon.

As the discussion grew more heated, the temperature in the room rose literally and figuratively. Gore was perspiring profusely as he and Tobin began to drill down to the details of their positions.

At one point, Gore raised his voice and shouted, “that is an outright lie.”

Chrétien jumped in with his mangled message to save the day. “Don’t worry,” he said to the vice-president. “We Canadians have had a hysterical claim to these waters for the past 300 years.”

Of course, Chrétien deliberately substituted hysterical for historical. But it was such a hilarious juxtaposition that everyone burst out laughing and the temperature between combatants went down about 10 degrees.

All that to say that thirty years ago, the prime minister knew the value of mastering a second language.

Which is why the Conservative backlash against the need for a bilingual leader is so bizarre.

Peter MacKay, the putative frontrunner in the Tory leadership race, was hoping for smooth sailing when he launched his campaign in his hometown of Stellarton, N.S., on a quiet Saturday on Jan. 25.

Family and friends were gathered, it was a MacKay love-in.

And with Jean Charest and Rona Ambrose officially out of the race, the show should have been a no-brainer.

MacKay had Tele-Prompters and beauteous prose. But he managed to massacre the few words of French that he had included in his presentation.

The mistake was not fatal. After all, MacKay’s first target audience is the membership in his own party, and some are decidedly ambivalent on the French fact in Canada.

Michelle Rempel Garner took to Twitter to complain there was really no need for a bilingual party leader.

Unlike Rempel Garner, MacKay understands the importance of a leader who can reach out in both official languages. The ability to bridge the two solitudes gave Progressive Conservative leaders like Brian Mulroney successive majority governments.

But perhaps, in his attempt to portray a relaxed, hometown feel, MacKay didn’t spend the time he should have in making sure that his few statements in French were grammatically correct.

It is also fair to say that, living in Toronto for the past several years, MacKay has not exactly been exposed to the French language to the same degree that he would in Parliament.

MacKay’s faux pas managed to make the front page of the Journal de Quebec. But in itself, that is not fatal. At least he is being talked about in the French media.

But what is disconcerting for his party is the continued insistence that it is fine to elect a unilingual English-speaker to the top job in the Tory party.

The late John Crosbie finished off his leadership chances back in the eighties when he compared speaking French to proficiency in Chinese.

Despite a great campaign team, and strong financial backing, he never got liftoff because of his inability to communicate in Canada’s second official language.

When one-quarter of the population claims French as a first language, it is evident that political leaders need to be able to master that language.

MacKay was on the Hill for 18 years before his recent hiatus. That was plenty of time to take advantage of the free private language classes offered to all Members of Parliament.

A unilingual Chrétien could never have been elected prime minister of all the people. Canadians would never support a prime minister who could not speak English. So why would we think it’s okay to elect a prime minister who fumbles his French?

MacKay has plenty of time to correct his mistake, but he better hit the books.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.