The boost in polling that Democrats have enjoyed since U.S. President Joe Biden dropped out of the race would not be shared by the Liberals if Justin Trudeau were to do the same.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 2, 2024.

OTTAWA–The post-Biden bump for the Democrats in the United States has not passed unnoticed in Canada.

One of the first questions asked of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the summer cabinet meeting in Halifax last week was just that: Could the Liberals get a similar bump if the prime minister were to step down, and the voters were presented with a different face at the head of the party?

Trudeau sidestepped the question, and continued to insist that his job was to “be there to invest in Canadians.” But his close friend and cabinet colleague Marc Miller did say that robust conversations were taking place within the confines of the caucus, without public disclosure.

Other ministers, including potential leadership candidates Mélanie Joly and Chrystia Freeland, were quick to support the prime minister’s leadership. But the party is roiling, as ministers and Members of Parliament seek their own Canadian bump.

It has been a year since the Conservative lead entered into double-digit territory, and nothing the government does seems to narrow that gap. But the notion of a parallel result if Trudeau were to resign is misdirected.

First of all, the hike for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has resulted in an increase of three to four per cent for her party.

Three to four per cent in Canada would not be enough to return to government, as the current polling differential between the Liberals and the Conservatives is much higher.

The United States is essentially a two-party system, so a small shift can make or break a victory. Even an independent with the name recognition of Robert Kennedy Jr. managed only six per cent support at the apex of his campaign. It is doubtful that six per cent would even follow him into an election. Now that he has thrown his support behind Republican candidate Donald Trump, his supporters will probably split between the two main parties.

Also, a two-party system lends itself to a smooth transition. In the U.S. case, the Democrats were able to replace U.S. President Joe Biden with Harris without a full leadership convention because opponents were edged out by the current vice-president.

The fact that she would have replaced Biden in the event of a presidential illness or incapacity made it simpler to rally around her at a national convention less than three months from the election.

In Trudeau’s case, his succession would trigger a full leadership process. Contrary to some media reports, Mark Carney is not a putative leader in waiting. There are several current cabinet ministers who have been quietly setting the stage for their own leadership ambitions.

Pundits would suggest that it is better to have someone from outside the current crop of politicians, and Carney certainly has a polished Canadian and international pedigree. But the Liberal Party’s previous experience with global pedigree has not been positive.

Michael Ignatieff is a brilliant scholar with a renowned global reputation who was supposed to be the party’s saviour. Instead, he was quickly rejected as someone who came back to Canada only to run for office. Carney has declined multiple offers to run for office, and that doesn’t sit well with those working in the trenches.

While the public may be tired of Trudeau, the party’s volunteer base is actively working to explain why his leadership and the current government are worth supporting.

The checklist is long for Liberals. National childcare, dental care, pharmacare and school lunch programs send a message that the party is working for all the people.

But the government has been telling that story for several months, and so far, it seems to be falling on deaf ears. Party members are ready for a leadership change, but also realize that the decision is in the hands of the prime minister.

Meanwhile, from François-Philippe Champagne to Dominic LeBlanc, many are weighing their future chances. Former parliamentarian Frank Baylis, who sold his heart-device business for $1.75-billion in 2021, is also actively assessing a potential campaign for the top job.

Baylis, son of a Barbadian immigrant, served in Trudeau’s government for one term, from 2015 to 2019, as the member of parliament for multicultural Pierrefonds-Dollard in Montreal, Que. If successful, he would be the party’s first non-white leader.

All of the foregoing means Liberals will not follow the American example and force out their leader. Multiple candidates are already planning their own robust campaigns, so there would be no shoo-in for Carney.

No huge bump, and multiple candidates rule out a smooth post-Trudeau transition in Canada.

Vive le Canada.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

To win, Justin Trudeau needs the Herb Gray crowd. He should listen to political elders, privately spilling their guts about feeling excluded. A small tent reaps a small voter turnout. A small turnout spells defeat.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May. 13, 2019.

OTTAWA—Prime Minister Justin Trudeau better hit the reset button to reverse his fading fortunes.

That should include mending fences with long-time Liberals who believe Trudeau’s quest to do politics differently has been exclusionary not inclusionary.

It is one thing to want new faces to reinvigorate a party. It is another thing to marginalize the old faces that have been supporting the party through thick and thin.

Remember the prime minister’s decision to take party politics out of the Senate? That decision was lauded by media observers as a way of doing politics differently. But now we are faced with independent Senators who do politics, with zero loyalty to anybody but themselves.

The government is having trouble passing an environmental assessment bill because it lacks Senate support.

Just last week, there was a gathering of the Liberal clan. The sold-out first annual Herb Gray Lecture Series, organized by Carleton University, featured MSNBC’S Ali Velshi in an articulate talk entitled “The Weaponization of Culture.”

Velshi’s first job was at Queen’s Park in Toronto working for minister Mavis Wilson in the government of David Peterson. He ultimately took a job with CNN and moved to the United States on the same day the World Trade Centre twin towers were downed by terrorists.

Velshi believes the weaponization of culture is leading to the decline of the American influence around the globe.

His two-hour presentation at the Library and Archives Canada included a historical overview and a conversation with the audience, moderated by journalist Susan Delacourt.

The occasion gathered those who knew and loved the late Herb Gray, the hardworking minister, deputy prime minister and second-longest serving Member of Parliament in the entire Commonwealth.

Herb Gray mentored many young Liberals who went on to establish their own political careers, including former Ontario finance minister Dwight Duncan and former tourism, culture, and sport minister Eleanor McMahon, both in attendance.

Herb, as he was fondly known by colleagues, practised the art of the big tent. Canada’s first Jewish federal cabinet minister, he embraced Windsor Muslims with the same enthusiasm shared for the rest of the community in his beloved hometown.

That big tent made Liberalism the most successful national movement in the history of the country.

But fragmentation of that tent could end up costing them the election.

The last time Liberals suffered a body blow was when the party dropped from frontrunner to third place under leader Michael Ignatieff.

The danger is not necessarily that Liberals will switch sides. But if they are not fired up, they may simply stay home.

During Ignatieff’s time, more than 600,000 supporters did not vote.

At the Gray lecture, the biggest complaint from many Grit attendees was the fact that they felt left out of a shrinking Liberal tent.

Trudeau needs to get loyalists back on side if he intends to form government.

The first step is to replace departed Gerald Butts with someone with broad and deep political experience running a national government—and soon.

Trudeau’s self-inflicted messes are a result of inexperience in running the massive operation of a national government.

From the SNC-Lavalin debacle to the Huawei extradition to the Marc Norman case, there are too many amateurs in the wheelhouse.

Trudeau is also overexposed. His team needs to be front and centre, with the leader spending less time in front of the camera minus selfies and socks. But a communications reworking is only part of the necessary reboot.

The problem goes beyond messaging to substance.

Climate change is one area where Liberals can contrast themselves favourably with the surging Conservatives.

The government also needs to draw another line in the sand. A handgun ban would definitely get the public’s attention and support.

Notwithstanding Border Security and Organized Crime Reduction Minister Bill Blair’s claim that the country is divided, the groups Trudeau needs to attract are in favour of a ban. It would definitely provide a sharp contrast with core values of the Conservative Party.

Even rural women favour a handgun ban. Trudeau needs those women if he has any chance of returning his party to power.

Menstruation pads in federal establishments are not going to cut it.

Trudeau has feminists, the LGBTQ community, and is likely supported by the majority of Indigenous people.

But that matters little because the massive voting centre is where victory sits.

To win, Trudeau needs the Herb Gray crowd.

He should listen to political elders, privately spilling their guts about feeling excluded.

A small tent reaps a small voter turnout. A small turnout spells defeat.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By SHEILA COPPS

First published in The Hill Times on Monday, May 1, 2017.

OTTAWA—Kevin O’Leary is not the first business person to stare politics in the face, and back away.

And he most certainly won’t be the last.

The annals of history are littered with the remains of high rollers lured from business or academia for a short-lived political flirtation.

In some cases, defeat was inflicted by the electorate. Former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff had all the credentials of a winner.  

Bright, articulate, and photogenic, he was convinced to leave a prestigious job at Harvard University because political operatives convinced him he could be the next prime minister.

Like Ignatieff, O’Leary was living in the United States when he fell victim to the lure of politics.

He, too, had deep Canadian roots, and was convinced that his business background and pedigree as an outsider was enough to put him in the running to become the next prime minister of Canada.

Unlike Ignatieff, O’Leary had zero command of the French language, but he naively insisted this would have no effect on his leadership bid.
 
But after little more than three months on the hustings, O’Leary took a second look at his political standing and bowed out. In doing so, he left behind thousands of new Conservative members who had signed up on line with the expressed purpose of making him their next leader.

O’Leary was widely touted as the Donald Trump of the North. In Trump’s case, he parlayed his outsider status into a plus, surprising the pundits and the world by winning the American electoral college, and thus securing the presidency of the United States.

In O’Leary’s exit statement, he claimed that his reason for stepping down was that he could not see a clear path to victory against Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

With almost one-quarter of the country made up of francophones who would not appreciate his unilingualism, O’Leary decided to throw his support behind Quebecer Maxime Bernier.
 
Less than two months ago, the two were sparring partners, with Bernier accusing O’Leary of being “a tourist in Quebec” and arguing that you can’t “govern Italy without speaking Italian.”

Last week, the final numbers were in and Bernier was proved right. O’Leary knew exactly how many members he had recruited and realized that his supporters were not numerous enough to win the leadership.

So rather than lose, O’Leary dropped out, citing the electability factor and suggesting that he was doing the Conservative Party a favour by exiting the race instead of losing a national election.

Only three months ago, O’Leary was singing quite a different song. In his opening online statement, he was blunt:  “With the election of Donald Trump to our south, Canada’s largest trading partner is headed by a businessman with an aggressive strategy that could hurt the Canadian economy. Trudeau doesn’t stand a chance, and we deserve better.”

His time on the hustings must have given O’Leary an up-close and personal view of politics that few business people get to see.

The long hours, the countless rubber chicken dinners, the multiple coffee klatches with prospective delegates are a lot less sexy than getting powdered up for a televised edition of Dragon’s Den, or its American counterpart, Shark Tank.

In many respects, the job of a politician is much more demanding for much less money than most private sector ventures.

And O’Leary the business man is all about return on investment.

He discovered that political life is really a lot more difficult than most business people realize.

O’Leary’s parting claim that he was unlikely to beat Trudeau does not bode well for any Conservative leader.

With his notoriety, and business credentials, O’Leary might have become a formidable foil for the current prime minister.

Instead, the libertarian mantle has now been passed on to Bernier, who has a reputation as a smooth communicator with deep political roots in Quebec.

When it comes to policies, Bernier’s views are even more radical than O’Leary’s. Sell the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, dump supply management, and deny climate change are just a few of ultraconservative positions that Bernier espouses.

He does not believe government should ever give money to business, opposes equalization payments to have-not provinces, and believes most federal services should be decentralized.

His pared-down platform resonates with former O’Leary followers, and will probably propel Bernier to party victory.

But winning the country is another story. O’Leary revealed his decision to step down was based on the belief he could not beat Trudeau.

Bernier should heed O’Leary’s blunt analysis.

Canadians don’t elect extremists.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.