By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on October 9, 2023.

OTTAWA—There is a reason people love politics.

The adrenalin of the fight, the rollercoaster ups and downs make it a show worth watching.

The majority of Canadians don’t spend every waking moment focused on Question Period. They live their lives, struggle with family and financial issues, and focus on Ottawa when casting a ballot every four years or so.

For political junkies like me, we watch politics because we love the thrust and parry. Last week was a sight to behold.

The country went from the abyss to the mountaintop in a single vote. The House of Commons morphed from a forum that applauds war criminals to a place that elected the country’s first Black speaker.

Concurrently, Manitoba voted for massive change by choosing the first ever First Nations leader to head up its legislature.

The elections of Greg Fergus on the Hill and Wab Kinew in Winnipeg are reasons to celebrate this fragile construct called democracy.

Members of Parliament were shouting with joy on the choice of Fergus, and some wiped tears from their eyes on witnessing the election of the first Black Canadian House Speaker.

The same optimism met Kinew’s landslide victory, some likening it to the “orange crush” of 2011 which saw then-federal NDP leader Jack Layton come ever so close to forming government. The reaction of Indigenous leaders last week was compelling. This is what real reconciliation looks like.

Manitoba voters overwhelmingly rejected a government that sadly ran an election campaign ad on not exhuming the bodies of two murdered Indigenous women believed to be buried in a landfill.

Does anyone think that would have been a campaign poster if those women had been white? The outgoing government launched a blatant attempt at racial wedge-politics that failed miserably.

That is why elections matter and why—as Canadians—we can be proud of the choices made at the ballot box last week.

Of course, some pundits can even find a negative twist on those votes.

“Why not sooner?” said some, while others fear the Speaker’s election was just tokenism. Those were some of the brickbats sent his way within moments of Fergus being ceremoniously dragged into the job.

The Quebec MP quickly showed us why he is not a token choice.

With wit and depth, Fergus got to work, warning MPs to treat him like a new car and avoid denting him on the first day.

All and sundry rose to pledge fealty and gentleness, promising they would do their best to make the House of Commons a more civil place.

That might not last too long. I give it two weeks. And that because during one of those weeks the House will not be sitting.

The debates ahead will make the House of Commons a place worth watching, where speeches are measured by the depth of ideas, not the talons of tongues.

Fergus may follow the Peter Milliken school of speakership. Milliken, the longest serving speaker who was elected in successive Liberal and Conservative government terms, understood that some heckling can stand the House in good stead.

It is a bit like the valve on a pressure cooker. Letting out a little steam is the only way to avoid a major explosion.

Most importantly, Fergus needs to treat all Members of Parliament, and political parties, equally.

The last House Speaker not chosen by secret ballot was John Bosley, who served in the chair for the first two years of prime minister Brian Mulroney’s majority government.

The opposition felt Bosley’s rulings were too one-sided (present company included), and a raucous parliamentary period prompted changes to the standing orders—or House rules—which resulted in the election of speakers by secret ballot.

The first speaker so chosen was Progressive Conservative John Fraser. The British Columbian MP was so popular that he was re-elected and served almost eight years.

He combined a wry sense of humour with taut control over decorum in the House.

Fraser and Milliken garnered the respect of all members. That is the challenge facing Fergus.

A lifelong Liberal, who served as a political assistant and party organizer before being elected, he will have to leave his partisan hat at the door.

His sunny personality will be a help there as Fergus has a reputation across party lines for being a positive, friendly force.

That positivity must be tempered by a strong arm in the oversight of Question Period.

Fergus will need to be a gentle giant, but not too gentle.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on August 14, 2023.

OTTAWA—While forest fires rage around the world, some Canadian leaders continue to deny climate change.

Federal Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault launched regulations last week to build a net-zero electricity grid by 2035, as opponents lined up against him.

Canada’s official opposition leader continues his “Axe the Tax” campaign while premiers in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba add their voices to those who want to get rid of carbon pricing.

National pollsters added fuel to the debate with findings that the majority of Canadians do not think the carbon pricing has actually positively influenced the environment.

A poll published last week by Nanos research said two-thirds of Canadians say it is a poor time to increase the cost of carbon, and a majority who said they believe the carbon price increase is ineffective at tackling climate change.

That result was not surprising. When is there ever a good time for a tax increase in most peoples’ minds?

To be fair, ordinary Canadians are not involved in the minute details of what needs to be done to tackle climate change.

But the notion that an increase in the cost of carbon will not affect carbon use is simply not logical, whatever the polling says.

It was the increase in the cost of gas during the climate crisis in the last century that encouraged the introduction of smaller vehicles and increased focus on reducing emissions.

Emissions are reduced when less carbon is burned. Less carbon is burned when vehicles are lighter, smaller and more fuel efficient.

The rise in the purchase of hybrid vehicles and electric cars is directly linked to the increasing cost of fuel.

One only has to travel to Europe or Asia to see how the high price of gasoline has encouraged people to move into smaller cars, and multiple means of lower-emitting forms of transportation.

A poll about taxation or carbon pricing does not delve deeply enough into the real problem.

The question should be comparative. Are you willing to pay more in energy costs to reduce fires and floods? That is the real cost-benefit analysis that must be done by governments, companies, and consumers.

According to Driving, most recent 2021 statistics show that one in four vehicles purchased in Canada is a pickup truck. The highest number of pickup truck users are in Alberta with the highest per capita usage of trucks in Saskatchewan.

Ontario’s population is more than three times greater than that of Alberta, but consumers in Canada’s most populous province don’t buy as many trucks. Ontario’s rural footprint is also much larger than Alberta’s.

The more it costs to fill up those vehicles, the more consumers will make decisions to move to smaller and more energy-efficient vehicles.

Carbon pricing will affect purchasing practices, but changes won’t show up immediately.

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston was on the news last week attacking the federal carbon pricing program.

But he is also lined up looking for financial help in the wake of disastrous loss of life and property caused by fires and floods resulting from global warming in his province.

The federal government pays 90 per cent of the cost of disaster relief.

This year will likely be the most expensive for disaster relief payouts in history based on the number of forest fires and floods across the country.

Houston did not have a plan to tackle climate change. He did refer to the potential of ocean wind power, and blamed the lack of wind investment on the federal government.

Houston kept repeating that he believed in solutions to climate change, but had nothing specific to offer except opposition to increase the price of carbon.

Nobody likes to pay more for anything.

But if we are serious about tackling the reality of climate change, something has to give.

Not all carbon pricing opponents are in denial. Houston kept repeating that he realized there is a problem. But he seemed ill-equipped or unprepared to offer alternatives.

The only way to move consumers toward energy efficiencies is to increase the cost of pollution caused by burning carbon.

When the world was facing a growing hole in the ozone layer, the solution was a replacement to the chemical in use as a coolant in refrigerators and air conditioners.

The new coolant was vastly more expensive. Not surprisingly, wastage dropped dramatically solving the ozone layer problem.

When things cost more, people conserve. When energy costs more, they cut back on consumption.

When transportation costs more, people’s driving habits change.

Pricing pollution is key.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

In reality, the Tories did not lose vote share during the byelection. Their candidate, police officer Ron Chhinzer, matched his predecessor by garnering more than 37 per cent of the vote. The real surprise was the drop in the NDP vote. 

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on December 19, 2022.

OTTAWA—The Mississauga mashup turned out to be a one-sided affair. Liberal candidate Charles Sousa rolled over his opponents with support from the majority of voters. 

Much attention has been paid to the Liberal-Conservative fight, but with less than five per cent of the vote, the New Democrats also received a sobering pre-Christmas message.

In the heart of suburban Toronto, the New Democrats are bleeding support.

That certainly damages their leader’s strategy of joining with the Liberals for a progressive agenda in the hopes that voters might reward NDP co-operation. 

It also changes the vote-splitting dynamic that has delivered two successive minority governments to the Liberals.

The results certainly gave the prime minister a spring in his step in the final sitting days of the 2022 Parliament. 

His speech to the 3,000 Liberals gathered at their annual Christmas Party was a lively prelude of what we can expect on the campaign trail.

There was no reference to the third party, but much attention paid to the main opponent, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. 

Trudeau brought the audience to its feet when he challenged the Conservative leader’s recent statement that “Canada is broken.” Trudeau also made specific reference to how much money Canadians would have lost had they followed Poilievre’s advice to bypass the Canadian currency system in favour of bitcoin. 

Trudeau’s most compelling message was focused on poverty reduction and Indigenous reconciliation. 

He underscored the benefits of the new Liberal national daycare agreement that renders childcare more accessible and permits more women to work outside the home during their children’s early years. 

Trudeau’s positive message on the importance of equality and social responsibility electrified the audience. Liberals responded with a chant “Four more years.”

And the crowd applauded most warmly when the prime minister introduced his newest Member of Parliament from Mississauga-Lakeshore. 

If that riding is a portent of things to come, Liberals have every reason to be beaming. 

In reality, the Tories did not lose vote share during the Dec. 12 byelection. 

Their candidate, police officer Ron Chhinzer, matched his predecessor by garnering more than 37 per cent of the vote. 

The real surprise was the drop in the NDP vote. Back in 2021, their candidate received almost 10 per cent of the vote, finishing with 9.8 per cent support. This time, they appealed to less than five per cent, cutting their vote in half. 

The NDP is not in contention in that riding, but that party’s strength or weakness can either spell victory or defeat for the Tories or Liberals.  

If the NDP numbers were to hold in a general election, they would deliver a majority government to the Liberals. 

In the case of the Tories, Poilievre did not visit the riding, while the prime minister and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh campaigned for their respective candidates. 

The Conservatives also chose a rather bizarre campaign tactic. Instead of focusing in on building name recognition for their candidate, most of their messaging was focused on the Liberal candidate.

They erected posters attacking Sousa and linking him to former Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne.

Sousa benefited from Conservative messaging. His name was plastered all over the riding, courtesy of the Conservatives.  

Poilievre needs to go back to the drawing board. Maybe he has gotten the message because he has finally decided to be more available to the mainstream press.

His decision to open up his final pre-Christmas caucus was so unusual that it actually made news itself. 

By staying away from the byelection, Poilievre was hoping to avoid criticism if Conservatives lost the race.

But as Trudeau told the Liberal Christmas gathering, the leader is always accountable, whether the news is good or bad, most especially when the news is bad.

Sousa was a much stronger candidate than his Conservative opponent. As a former Ontario finance minister, he is certainly cabinet material whereas Chhinzer’s background as a police gang expert does necessarily lend itself to political leadership.

However, the recruitment of candidates is also a harbinger of how well a party is doing.  When star candidates like Sousa are jumping on board, it usually means their party is in the ascendancy.

If the Conservatives were moving toward government, they should be expected to attract the stars, especially those who have had some previous political experience. 

The Mississauga-Lakeshore message was clear. Conservative attack-dog politics did not secure the desired result. The new year may bring new Tory opportunities.

The passing of the beloved Liberal MP Jim Carr means another byelection in Manitoba. 

For his own survival, Poilievre must pivot. 

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.