In last week’s palace revolt, there is no heir apparent standing in the wings. Although several candidates are already preparing, including some in cabinet, there is no single juggernaut organizationally.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on October 28, 2024.

OTTAWA—Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dodged a bullet from his own party last week.

A document signed by 24 caucus members set out the reasons why they think he should resign. One surprise element in the document was the deadline for his decision.

He has been told in no uncertain terms that he must make his future known one way or the other by Monday, Oct. 28.

The number of caucus members who did not sign the document is just as noteworthy as the number who did.

In a caucus of 153 members, some 130 chose not to participate in this ultimatum.

That doesn’t mean that they are all happy with the leadership, no matter what cabinet members have been saying for the cameras.

With poll numbers stagnating and a 19-point gap to close with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, many ministers and MPs are repeating privately what the dissidents said at the Liberal caucus meeting on Oct. 23.

Some are voting with their feet, decided they are not seeking re-election for all kinds of good reasons. Most of them cite family and quality of life issues, but the cloud hanging over everyone’s head is winnability.

If they don’t make a move soon—and drastically—they are all risking defeat in an election expected next year.

Media reports said Trudeau listened attentively to the criticism and got emotional at times when he recounted the sacrifices his own family has made on his behalf.

In his own words, the prime minister has said that his decision to continue in politics was a factor in the end of his marriage.

That is an incredible sacrifice to make, and at some point, he has to evaluate whether it is really worth it.

The past year has been an unsuccessful effort to reboot the Liberal image.

The move to shake up cabinet and bring in younger, more diverse voices has not resulted in any upswing in Liberal support.

If anything, that shakeup actually accelerated Trudeau’s downward spiral as caucus grew more concerned when two relatively safe Liberal seats were lost in byelections in the key battlegrounds of Toronto and Montreal.

Trudeau has consistently refused to used paid advertising as a way to change the channel on his leadership. When he was elected in 2015, he promised to do away with government advertising that was deemed to be partisan.

But that promise is blowing up in his face as most Canadians have no idea that the federal government has introduced enhanced pharma care, national daycare, increased dental care and cross-Canada school food programs.

Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith underscored the decision by the Liberal Party not to spend a lot on advertising in a media interview after the caucus last week. He also called for an end to the “palace intrigue.”

His wish may be granted as most Liberal MPs don’t want to stab themselves in the back.

Back in the days of the fight between Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin, a similar letter circulated for weeks.

Martin supporters in the caucus had been working for years to smooth the way for their guy to take over, and this letter-writing campaign garnered more than 70 signatures.

The difference is that there was well-oiled machine behind the man who wanted to force Chrétien out.

Martin was widely viewed as a successful finance minister who could be a three-term prime minister himself.

In last week’s palace revolt, there is no single heir apparent standing in the wings. Although several candidates are already preparing—including some in the current cabinet—there is no single juggernaut organizationally.

The Oct. 28 deadline is a recognition that the time to replace Trudeau is running short if he were to decide that he wants to step down and prompt a leadership race.

With loss of the supply-and-confidence agreement with the New Democratic Party in September, the uncertainty of an early election also has Liberal members spooked.

They know that even if Trudeau goes, the time to put together a leadership scenario is a minimum of five months, and even that is cutting it short.

They may not have five months if all opposition parties decide they want to vote non-confidence.

Trudeau exited caucus last week pledging to reporters that “the Liberal Party is strong and united.”

That may be wishful thinking. They are certainly united in wanting some specific changes to how the government is getting its message out. And some simply want him out.

But don’t expect Trudeau to follow his father’s footsteps and take a walk in the snow this week.

Hill Times Editor’s note: Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith was referring to the Liberal Party of Canada’s lack of political advertising, not the Government of Canada’s. This column has been corrected and updated online.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

The boost in polling that Democrats have enjoyed since U.S. President Joe Biden dropped out of the race would not be shared by the Liberals if Justin Trudeau were to do the same.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 2, 2024.

OTTAWA–The post-Biden bump for the Democrats in the United States has not passed unnoticed in Canada.

One of the first questions asked of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the summer cabinet meeting in Halifax last week was just that: Could the Liberals get a similar bump if the prime minister were to step down, and the voters were presented with a different face at the head of the party?

Trudeau sidestepped the question, and continued to insist that his job was to “be there to invest in Canadians.” But his close friend and cabinet colleague Marc Miller did say that robust conversations were taking place within the confines of the caucus, without public disclosure.

Other ministers, including potential leadership candidates Mélanie Joly and Chrystia Freeland, were quick to support the prime minister’s leadership. But the party is roiling, as ministers and Members of Parliament seek their own Canadian bump.

It has been a year since the Conservative lead entered into double-digit territory, and nothing the government does seems to narrow that gap. But the notion of a parallel result if Trudeau were to resign is misdirected.

First of all, the hike for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has resulted in an increase of three to four per cent for her party.

Three to four per cent in Canada would not be enough to return to government, as the current polling differential between the Liberals and the Conservatives is much higher.

The United States is essentially a two-party system, so a small shift can make or break a victory. Even an independent with the name recognition of Robert Kennedy Jr. managed only six per cent support at the apex of his campaign. It is doubtful that six per cent would even follow him into an election. Now that he has thrown his support behind Republican candidate Donald Trump, his supporters will probably split between the two main parties.

Also, a two-party system lends itself to a smooth transition. In the U.S. case, the Democrats were able to replace U.S. President Joe Biden with Harris without a full leadership convention because opponents were edged out by the current vice-president.

The fact that she would have replaced Biden in the event of a presidential illness or incapacity made it simpler to rally around her at a national convention less than three months from the election.

In Trudeau’s case, his succession would trigger a full leadership process. Contrary to some media reports, Mark Carney is not a putative leader in waiting. There are several current cabinet ministers who have been quietly setting the stage for their own leadership ambitions.

Pundits would suggest that it is better to have someone from outside the current crop of politicians, and Carney certainly has a polished Canadian and international pedigree. But the Liberal Party’s previous experience with global pedigree has not been positive.

Michael Ignatieff is a brilliant scholar with a renowned global reputation who was supposed to be the party’s saviour. Instead, he was quickly rejected as someone who came back to Canada only to run for office. Carney has declined multiple offers to run for office, and that doesn’t sit well with those working in the trenches.

While the public may be tired of Trudeau, the party’s volunteer base is actively working to explain why his leadership and the current government are worth supporting.

The checklist is long for Liberals. National childcare, dental care, pharmacare and school lunch programs send a message that the party is working for all the people.

But the government has been telling that story for several months, and so far, it seems to be falling on deaf ears. Party members are ready for a leadership change, but also realize that the decision is in the hands of the prime minister.

Meanwhile, from François-Philippe Champagne to Dominic LeBlanc, many are weighing their future chances. Former parliamentarian Frank Baylis, who sold his heart-device business for $1.75-billion in 2021, is also actively assessing a potential campaign for the top job.

Baylis, son of a Barbadian immigrant, served in Trudeau’s government for one term, from 2015 to 2019, as the member of parliament for multicultural Pierrefonds-Dollard in Montreal, Que. If successful, he would be the party’s first non-white leader.

All of the foregoing means Liberals will not follow the American example and force out their leader. Multiple candidates are already planning their own robust campaigns, so there would be no shoo-in for Carney.

No huge bump, and multiple candidates rule out a smooth post-Trudeau transition in Canada.

Vive le Canada.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.