The boost in polling that Democrats have enjoyed since U.S. President Joe Biden dropped out of the race would not be shared by the Liberals if Justin Trudeau were to do the same.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 2, 2024.

OTTAWA–The post-Biden bump for the Democrats in the United States has not passed unnoticed in Canada.

One of the first questions asked of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the summer cabinet meeting in Halifax last week was just that: Could the Liberals get a similar bump if the prime minister were to step down, and the voters were presented with a different face at the head of the party?

Trudeau sidestepped the question, and continued to insist that his job was to “be there to invest in Canadians.” But his close friend and cabinet colleague Marc Miller did say that robust conversations were taking place within the confines of the caucus, without public disclosure.

Other ministers, including potential leadership candidates Mélanie Joly and Chrystia Freeland, were quick to support the prime minister’s leadership. But the party is roiling, as ministers and Members of Parliament seek their own Canadian bump.

It has been a year since the Conservative lead entered into double-digit territory, and nothing the government does seems to narrow that gap. But the notion of a parallel result if Trudeau were to resign is misdirected.

First of all, the hike for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has resulted in an increase of three to four per cent for her party.

Three to four per cent in Canada would not be enough to return to government, as the current polling differential between the Liberals and the Conservatives is much higher.

The United States is essentially a two-party system, so a small shift can make or break a victory. Even an independent with the name recognition of Robert Kennedy Jr. managed only six per cent support at the apex of his campaign. It is doubtful that six per cent would even follow him into an election. Now that he has thrown his support behind Republican candidate Donald Trump, his supporters will probably split between the two main parties.

Also, a two-party system lends itself to a smooth transition. In the U.S. case, the Democrats were able to replace U.S. President Joe Biden with Harris without a full leadership convention because opponents were edged out by the current vice-president.

The fact that she would have replaced Biden in the event of a presidential illness or incapacity made it simpler to rally around her at a national convention less than three months from the election.

In Trudeau’s case, his succession would trigger a full leadership process. Contrary to some media reports, Mark Carney is not a putative leader in waiting. There are several current cabinet ministers who have been quietly setting the stage for their own leadership ambitions.

Pundits would suggest that it is better to have someone from outside the current crop of politicians, and Carney certainly has a polished Canadian and international pedigree. But the Liberal Party’s previous experience with global pedigree has not been positive.

Michael Ignatieff is a brilliant scholar with a renowned global reputation who was supposed to be the party’s saviour. Instead, he was quickly rejected as someone who came back to Canada only to run for office. Carney has declined multiple offers to run for office, and that doesn’t sit well with those working in the trenches.

While the public may be tired of Trudeau, the party’s volunteer base is actively working to explain why his leadership and the current government are worth supporting.

The checklist is long for Liberals. National childcare, dental care, pharmacare and school lunch programs send a message that the party is working for all the people.

But the government has been telling that story for several months, and so far, it seems to be falling on deaf ears. Party members are ready for a leadership change, but also realize that the decision is in the hands of the prime minister.

Meanwhile, from François-Philippe Champagne to Dominic LeBlanc, many are weighing their future chances. Former parliamentarian Frank Baylis, who sold his heart-device business for $1.75-billion in 2021, is also actively assessing a potential campaign for the top job.

Baylis, son of a Barbadian immigrant, served in Trudeau’s government for one term, from 2015 to 2019, as the member of parliament for multicultural Pierrefonds-Dollard in Montreal, Que. If successful, he would be the party’s first non-white leader.

All of the foregoing means Liberals will not follow the American example and force out their leader. Multiple candidates are already planning their own robust campaigns, so there would be no shoo-in for Carney.

No huge bump, and multiple candidates rule out a smooth post-Trudeau transition in Canada.

Vive le Canada.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Jason Kenney’s departure was unexpected as he had gathered together a group of key supporters for what was expected to be a victory celebration.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May 23, 2022.

OTTAWA—Internal party warfare can be fatal.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney eked out a bare majority in a party vote on his leadership, only to be forced out by advisers’ pressure.

Kenney’s departure was unexpected as he had gathered together a group of key supporters for what was expected to be a victory celebration.

Days before the United Conservative Party mail-in vote was announced, Kenney claimed that he would stay on if he secured a single-vote majority.

A large gathering of supporters was expecting to see Kenney continue in the job, but instead, he dropped a bombshell last Wednesday night.

In the end, the pressure inside his own party was just too great, so Kenney decided to step down after 48.6 per cent of UCP review voters said they wanted him out.

Meanwhile, the internal fight in the federal Conservative party gets more bitter by the day. Last week, saw candidate slagging candidate, and supporters’ slagging each other.

The climate got so difficult that former finance minister Ed Fast felt compelled to quit his job as Conservative caucus finance critic in opposition to Pierre Poilievre’s promise to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada.

Claims of party-based racism and sleazy politics were traded as candidate Patrick Brown accused Poilievre of aligning with racists in his support of the trucker occupation on Parliament Hill.

Brown supporter, Michelle Rempel-Garner weighed in on the racism theme, accusing Poilievre of being too slow to condemn the race-based slaughter south of the border in Buffalo.

Brown also attacked Poilievre supporters for allegedly criticizing his campaign’s push to sell memberships to racialized minorities.

The past week in the Conservative party has seen the temperature increase as the end of the membership sale period looms.

The federal party Twitter feed was vitriolic, with candidates lining up to accuse each other of stoking the flames of racism. In a media interview, Poilievre promoted his use of “Anglo-Saxon” language, a lift from white supremacists’ vocabulary.

Compare federal Tory accusations to the civilized official Ontario election debate last week. Hosted by TVO’s Steve Paikin and Althia Raj of The Toronto Star, the debate was positively benign in comparison.

Candidates respected rules and time limits. They were careful to attack their opponents on policies, not personalities.

New Democratic Party Leader Andrea Horwath delivered a surprisingly listless performance, absent her usual excellent communication skills.

Later in the week, she joined Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner with a diagnosis of COVID. Both were forced into virtual campaigns in the final stretch of the election.

While the NDP leader flagged, the Green leader shone in the debate. Schreiner was personable, articulate and knowledgeable, particularly on climate change issues.

Premier Doug Ford carried out his usual, aw shucks schtick, claiming friendship with everyone on the podium and defending government policies.

The most controversial was the Conservative promise of a $10-billion investment to build a highway which is not supported by any other leader.

In the last campaign, Ford promised a buck a beer in an attempt to reach out to the blue-collar cohort that was key to his victory.

This time, Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca promised a buck a bus ticket, vowing to take thousands of cars off the road by making public transit more affordable.

The Grit leader also promised to divert Ford’s $10-billion proposed road investment into education, repairing and building schools and cutting class sizes.

Horwath pitched an increase in the minimum wage, in direct contrast to Ford’s decision to abolish planned increases early in his term in office.

The NDP leader primarily focused on her base. But she took a direct hit when the premier claimed that unions were moving away from their traditional support for her party in favour of his re-election.

Ford’s strategy worked, with NDP support slipping after the debate.

That was good news for the Liberals because many anti-Ford voters want to rally behind the party that has the best chance to defeat the current government.

The latest six-point difference keeps Ford in the lead with just two weeks to go before voting day. But the 10-point difference between the Liberals and the New Democrats really favours a potential momentum shift to Del Duca.

As for internal Conservative struggles, on the federal level it is difficult to see how the angry differences among leadership camps of Poilievre, Charest and Brown can be healed in a post-campaign show of unity.

Centrist Conservatives may not elect a party leader.

But they hold the key to 24 Sussex.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

It is rather an odd position for someone who has never been elected and stands to keep her job for a total of 33 years without a single review by anyone. Senator Denise Batters is scheduled to retire on June 18, 2045.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on November 22, 2021.

OTTAWA—The internal fight in the Conservative Party has once again shone a light into the dark places of the Chamber of Sober Second thought.

And the illumination is sobering.

Senator Denise Batters is supposedly leading a fight for democracy.

It is rather an odd position for someone who has never been elected and stands to keep her job for a total of 33 years without a single review by anyone. Batters is scheduled to retire on June 18, 2045.

Meanwhile, she is using all her efforts to secure the firing of her leader, who has actually gone through a convention and an election, where his right to a seat in Parliament was affirmed.

Of course, the majority of attention is focussed on Batters’ petition to oust Erin O’Toole.

But for the past eight years in the Senate, she has been using to same bully pulpit for an anti-Liberal political agenda.

Three years ago, Batters was forced to apologize when she attacked parliamentary secretary Omar Alghabra for speaking out against Saudi Arabia because he was born there. Most of her tweets are littered with claims that the governing Liberals are sticking it to the west.

Like any Canadian, Batters has the right to speak out. But to use her voice as a Senator to engage in partisan fights is a misuse of her nomination.

In the case of the Tories, being dumped from caucus will not likely stop her campaign.

However, it will dampen the enthusiasm of followers, as expulsion from caucus is not a great route to re-election.

When Justin Trudeau fired two ministers, he was accused by the opposition of being a misogynist by the very people who are now attacking Batters.

Tories are getting a lick of their own stick, and it has nothing to do with being against women.

Other Conservative caucus members will close ranks. Batters’ petition may actually reinforce O’Toole’s position as most members close ranks to support him.

Even the anti-vaxxers in the Conservative caucus have to tread carefully, as they would have little success in running in the next election as Independents. Exile from caucus is a death sentence for most politicians.

But Batters does not need to worry about re-election. And that brings me to the issue of term limits.

Does it make sense to name a partisan politician to a 32-year tenure in the Parliament of Canada without any checks or balances on their use of the Senate as a personal bully pulpit?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau abolished the Liberal Senate caucus in an effort to take politics out of the place. In the short term, it seems to have been a successful move. But in the long term, the decision could have grave repercussions in the case of a constitutional crisis.

The prime minister could have accomplished the same goal by ensuring that Senate appointments be made for a fixed term.

When Jean Chrétien was in power, he imposed de facto term limits by generally appointing older, wiser Canadians who were already inching toward their 75th birthday.

He was also keen to name those who would serve less than six years and therefore be ineligible for a partial Senate pension.

The length of some Senate appointments, and eligibility for lucrative pensions, was the subject of much criticism so Chrétien found a deft way to solve the problem without having to amend the Constitution.

Batters’ campaign is going to serve as a reminder that partisan work in the Senate can have a poisonous effect on the body politic.

But even though she was tossed from the caucus, there is nothing stopping her from continuing a taxpayer-funded campaign against her party’s leader.

It is very easy for someone who has a guaranteed job for the next 24 years to launch a political attack that costs her nothing.

Batters can also work to consolidate disaffection with the current leader, again on the taxpayers’ dime.

But O’Toole has his own weapons, including the legislation that allows his caucus to expel recalcitrant members by a vote of 20 per cent of the caucus.

When Trudeau expelled two caucus members, Tories attacked him for doing it personally, without a vote of caucus approval. They also claimed the firings were based on misogyny.

O’Toole also fired Batters directly, without the benefit of a caucus vote.

Potential dissidents have been threatened with expulsion if they follow Batters.

Nobody played the misogyny card in this firing. Instead, all eyes are on the unelected status of a Senator who campaigns against her own party at public expense.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.