By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on December 23, 2024.

OTTAWA—Politics 101: Do not fire your most senior minister by Zoom.

And if a firing is in the works, be prepared for all eventualities, including a resignation.

At the Liberal Christmas gathering last week, senior ministers and MPs were privately shaking their heads at the incompetent way the deputy prime minister and finance minister was terminated.

They also wondered exactly what the prime minister’s office was doing on the weekend to prevent expected fallout from the Chrystia Freeland departure.

Chief of Staff Katie Telford was busy posting on social media, but not about politics. “We got away and spent a holiday season weekend in New York City! It was the best. We saw the lights, some stars (on stage!) and did a lot of walking and talking. Thanks to those who tried to minimize the phone calls….”

Lovely for her family. Not so lovely for the country.

The chief of staff should have realized that after her boss fired Chrystia Freeland, there would be pushback from the minister. Freeland is not the first finance minister to be fired, nor will she be the last.

With zero prime ministerial strategy, Freeland was able to pen her version of the exit, seizing the narrative, and dealing a deadly blow to Trudeau’s future. The Prime Minister’s Office is solely responsible for the crisis.

When then-prime minister Jean Chrétien fired Paul Martin from the finance portfolio, the move actually averted a major financial crisis.

At the time, Martin and his caucus supporters were working internally to force Chrétien’s resignation.

The two had run against each other for the top job, and Martin kept his leadership ambition active by taking over the party apparatus, including the installation of a party president who spent most of his time attacking the leader.

But Chrétien was not about to be moved, and to be fair, his personal popularity and polling numbers were robust enough that most of the caucus did not join in moves to destabilize his leadership.

Martin was getting impatient, and so his team hatched a plan to announce his resignation as finance minister at a Montreal meeting of the International Monetary Conference, including senior global banking officials and finance ministers in June 2002.

His intention was to drop the financial bomb on the world, and cause a run on the Canadian dollar to force the prime minister out.

Chretien got wind of the plot on a Saturday when a truck was seen at the department of finance exporting shredded documents from the minister’s office.

Chretien’s riposte was to get ahead of the Martin narrative, and to fire him.

Martin was informed that Sunday that he was fired, and he expressed absolute surprise at the decision.

But, in the end, the Monday meeting was chaired by newly-minted finance minister John Manley, whose fiscal rectitude and legal tax experience calmed international waters.

Martin’s attempted coup was foiled by the Prime Minister’s Office. As soon as they got wind of the shredders at Finance, instead of waiting, they elevated it to a firing offence.

Chinese military general Sun Tzu is said to be the originator of the proverb “keep your friends close and your enemies closer.”

It is the job of the prime minister’s inner circle to keep enemies close. In the case of Freeland, she had been one of Trudeau’s most loyal defenders, so her visceral and very public reaction to the firing could have been predicted.

Caucus members know that Freeland was previously viewed by the PMO as a potential future replacement for Trudeau.

Other ministers are now wondering if the prime minister could treat the most senior minister this way, what could happen to them?

As soon as the proposed cabinet shuffle occurs, there will be more public declarations from those who have been passed up for the top jobs.

What should have been a year-end celebration of some big wins on the social policy and housing fronts is instead a crisis of unprecedented proportions inflicted by the incompetency of the prime minister’s inner circle.

At one time, several caucus members called for the firing of the chief of staff. That call went unheeded.

It took more than two years for caucus to convince the PMO that the government needed to support its climate change strategy with paid advertising.

PMO’s refusal to brief caucus or seek ministerial advice before promoting issues like the ill-conceived GST holiday created this crisis.

Trudeau will pay the price for an inner circle that has lost its way.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Trudeau’s tenure is brief but he needs to weigh his legacy against the risk of losing it all. Quite a balancing act.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on July 15, 2024.

Politics is a disease for which there is no vaccination.

How else to explain the reason why politicians have such a hard time retiring?

Most people count down the days until they can stop working. But U.S. President Joe Biden is 81 years old, and still refuses to entertain the idea of getting out.

Ditto for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau has accomplished extraordinary things during his decade in power, which have even his enemies damning him with faint praise.

Norman Spector recently tweeted that Trudeau had been “the most consequential prime minister in his lifetime.” He went on to say Trudeau was even more consequential than his father. That praise was tempered by adding “more decades than I have left will have to pass to know whether the massive changes he’s precipitated are making Canada a better country—or destroying it.”

Trudeau put Indigenous issues on the agenda with more investments and legislative change to support reconciliation than any prime minister in history.

He also introduced nationally accessible child care, dental care and pharmacare, permanently hiked seniors’ pensions, and launched a national school lunch program initiative during the quickest economic recovery in the G8.

Quite a record for a decade which included two years of focussed attention on a worldwide once-in-a-century pandemic.

So why don’t either of these accomplished men want to exit with their heads held high?

To paraphrase former Ontario premier Ernie Eves, the worst day in politics is better than the best day on Bay Street.

Outsiders may think it is hubris that keeps politicians going. But they would be wrong.

The capacity for societal change lands squarely in the lap of politicians, and they know how much their work can actually be the agent for change.

Trudeau understands that his vision will not likely be shared by any successor, whether it be from his own party or the Conservatives.

Biden has devoted his life to fighting for the workers, and he wants to continue that work.

It is up to those closest to these leaders to guide them in the right direction.

In Trudeau’s case, following his separation from Sophie Grégoire last summer, he won’t be getting any pillow-talk counsel. He may be hearing from his children, but their youthful wisdom may not parallel advice from close adults.

Biden is obviously getting an earful from his partner Jill Biden, and his adult children. They are pushing him to stay even though his public performances and aging issues have become the dominant theme on the eve of his presidential re-election fight.

Donald Trump is chomping at the bit, hoping to bait Biden into another encounter since the first debate was so damaging to the Democrats.

Senior Democrats are working on the Biden family to convince them that keeping Joe in the job will end up destroying his legacy, not enhancing it.

Senior Liberals are not able to work on family members who can exercise a considerable amount of influence. Instead, they are reaching out to the inner circle of Trudeau’s key advisers.

That group seems to believe that the prime minister’s campaign prowess will carry him through the current travails.

His chief of staff has been working the back rooms of leadership since she was at Queen’s Park with then-Premier Kathleen Wynne. Katie Telford was there in the 2014 election when Wynne was supposed to lose. Instead, she turned it around and Liberals served one more term in provincial government.

Telford’s job also depends on Trudeau staying, so it may be understandable that she sees possible redemption on the campaign trail.

But Wynne’s second try in 2018 was a disaster with the leader announcing her own retirement days before the campaign ended. The party ended up losing status with few seats, and the worst defeat in Ontario political history.

Telford was not responsible for that debacle, as the campaign was run by David Herle, former adviser to prime minister Paul Martin who led Martin back to the wilderness in 2006.

But Telford understands political history.

Every leader cares about the direction in which they take their country. But at some point, even consequential leadership loses its lustre.

The power of political change is inevitable especially in the post-information age.

In Biden’s case, he has admirably served his country for 52 years. He can leave with his head held high.

In comparison, Trudeau’s tenure is brief, but he needs to weigh his legacy against the risk of losing it all.

Quite a balancing act.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.