If members choose the leader in the first place, why don’t they do the firing?

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on October 24, 2022.

OTTAWA—What do British Tories and British Columbian New Democrats have in common?

They both moved with dispatch last week to get rid of leaders or potential leaders of their respective parties.

In the case of the British prime minister, Liz Truss’s resignation—after just six weeks in office—marks the end of a tumultuous term during which a massively unpopular mini-budget saw the party’s numbers plummet.

The party elected the leader but, in the end, it was a loss of caucus confidence that cost her the job.

Even after sacking the finance minister and rescinding the millions of pounds in tax cuts, Truss was unable to right her sinking ship. One vitriolic British newspaper headline characterized the Tory governance as a clown car.

Truss will suffer the fate of having the shortest prime ministerial tenure in British history. The next leader will be chosen by the party, but given the capacity to dump a leader after six weeks, it must be hard for members to believe their participation really counts.

Another leadership will not be facing the New Democrats in British Columbia because, as a result of an internal report, the party has chosen a coronation.

In either case, the leader is much less dependent on party support and much more dependent on caucus support.

Is that necessarily a good thing?

In the British system there is absolutely no room for error. If an unpopular move is made by the prime minister, he or she has no time to rebuild support and confidence.

To use a Canadian example, when the Liberals came to power in 1993, the country was deemed a financial basket case by certain financial institutions.

There was no choice but to cut, and cut deeply. The government laid off thousands of employees, and cut budgets across the board by between 15 and 25 per cent.

The only budget that then-prime minister Jean Chrétien refused to cut was spending for Indigenous services. But that financing normally increases with a hike in population, so even a standstill amounts to the equivalent of a cut.

The reduction process took a year as every minister had to present their budget cut proposals to a cabinet committee. I sat on one that was nicknamed “the Star Chamber.”

Some ministers could not agree on what the cuts should be. For example, when the department of foreign affairs recommended meeting its target by ending its funding of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the minister of finance vetoed that move. The foreign minister was sent back to the drawing board.

During this period, there was a fair bit of internal grumbling about the shape of the cuts, and it was particularly difficult for Ottawa-area members of Parliament to explain the job reductions to their constituents.

How easy it could have been to organize a group within caucus to dump the leader, and end the cost-cutting exercise before it even began.

The Brits are facing a fifth Conservative leadership in six years.

In British Columbia’s case, current Premier John Horgan enjoyed longevity.

But what would have been a party election for leader has been replaced by a coronation, since the elections committee has disallowed the candidacy of the only other opponent.

The decision to refuse the candidacy of Anjali Appadurai was based on an internal report which found that, “Ms. Appadurai engaged in serious improper conduct by co-ordinating with third parties” to recruit new members.
Anjali Appadurai was disqualified from the NDP leadership race on Oct. 20—the same day that Liz Truss stepped down as British prime minister. Photograph courtesy of Twitter

The candidate vigorously denied the claims, suggesting instead that the party introduced a mid-campaign interpretation of the membership rules which was applied retroactively.

Appadurai, an environmentalist, had little caucus support, but was said to have sold many more memberships than her leadership rival and former Attorney General David Eby.

Eby automatically becomes the premier as a result of the coronation. When Eby announced his candidacy last summer, he had the support of 48 colleagues.

That support was likely what caused several other caucus colleagues to stay out of the race.

A coronation may be the simplest route forward for the party, but it may not enhance New Democrat chances with the general public.

Leadership campaigns provide an opportunity to recruit new members. Many stay, even after the race is over. Appadurai supporters, who joined the party for the race, are already leaving in despair.

The British decision to dump a leader after six weeks, or the B.C. NDP move to dump a candidate, may both cause members of each respective party to quit.

If members choose the leader in the first place, why don’t they do the firing?

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

In a minority situation, an election can happen at any time if parties clash on spending priorities. But these are not ordinary times. In the middle of a pandemic, even getting to the polls is complicated.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 28, 2020.

OTTAWA—The election cat and mouse games begin.

In a minority situation, an election can happen at any time if parties clash on spending priorities.

But these are not ordinary times. In the middle of a pandemic, even getting to the polls is complicated.

The British Columbia government just called an Oct. 24 election. Hours after the call, it was revealed that voting results could take weeks to tabulate.

Because of the second wave of the pandemic, many people are limiting their movement amongst larger crowds.

Within hours of the election call, 20,000 requests for mail-in ballots had been sent to Elections BC.

According to officials, they expect a mail-in participation of up to 40 per cent, which means 800,000 ballots, compared to only 6,500 people in the 2017 campaign.

Election law says that absentee ballots cannot be tallied until the final results of the polls are counted, and that could be up to 13 days after the vote.

Given Canada Post’s COVID-based backlog as more people shop via the internet, the arrival of that many ballots could clog up the system for up to three weeks.

British Columbia Premier John Horgan called the snap election a year sooner than the end of his mandate, but his announcement came as no surprise. He and his team have been busy rolling out pre-election promises for weeks.

The early call is a gamble for Horgan, but he is also banking on the pandemic bounce that has been felt by leaders across the country.

New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs recently launched a similar quick COVID call two years into his minority mandate and was rewarded with a comfortable majority.

Popularity numbers for Ontario Premier Doug Ford and François Legault have also risen during the pandemic.

Even though both provinces are plagued by high levels of contagion and an increasing concern with the arrival of the second wave, the electorate has been happy with their work.

Voters are also witnessing unprecedented federal-provincial harmony which provides a peaceful backdrop in a world pandemic that could easily morph into panic.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is not oblivious to the crisis bump.

When the Corona virus impact appeared to be waning, the summer was replete with scandal stories like the one that caused WE Canada to shutter its operations.

But with the return of kids to classrooms, and more people back at the workplace and larger social gatherings, the predicted second wave is upon us.

The prime minister’s televised national address was designed to promote calm but also encourage Canadians to stay the course with limited social contacts and self-distancing.

He has also set out a plan designed to put the Liberals on a collision course with all opposition parties.

On the left, New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh is doing his best to put his party’s stamp on promised items like national pharmacare and childcare.

But the Liberals are crowding their space with the intention of securing support from voters who might swing between both parties.

On the right, Erin O’Toole is going to have to refrain from coming away from the Throne Speech as Mr. No. His focus on the deficit and spending may sit well on Bay Street but it does not comfort Main Street Canadians who are losing jobs, homes and life savings because of the financial havoc wreaked by the pandemic.

Then there is the Bloc Québécois. Trudeau’s promise to introduce national standards for long-term care facilities, a direct result of the deaths of thousands of innocent seniors, has raised the hackles of the premier and the nationalists in the province.

They claim that Ottawa should merely increase health budgets and that will solve all the problems.

However, the image of the premier calling in Canadian soldiers to clean up the mess in multiple facilities was not lost on the ordinary Quebecer.

Long-term care is solely the provincial jurisdiction, but it is obvious that the basic rule of protecting the health of citizens and workers was sadly ignored in multiple institutions in more than one province.

Canadians are wise enough to know that it makes sense to work on a national plan in a pandemic that has already killed almost 10,000 people. There is a public interest argument that trumps federal-provincial fights.

Trudeau is itching to test his vision in a federal election, but he risks a backlash if the Liberals are seen to provoke it.

However, Liberals would be happy if an opposition party pulls the plug,

Meanwhile the political war games are on.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By SHEILA COPPS

First published on Monday, April 23, 2018 in The Hill Times.

OTTAWA—Politics can be a four-letter word. Last week that word was ugly.

Political disputes between Alberta and British Columbia and the opening salvos of the Ontario election left most spectators wondering how low politics could go.

The Western oil fight is particularly ugly because it involves two provinces whose leaders ostensibly share the same political values.

Both Alberta and British Columbia have rarely had a New Democratic premier at the helm, so one would think that the leaders would make a special effort at reconciliation.

But British Columbia Premier John Horgan didn’t even give his Alberta counterpart a head’s up when he yanked the rug out from under the Trans Mountain Pipeline, effectively dooming thousands of jobs and potential future investments in oil exploration in Canada.

His government hangs by a sliver, and that sliver is being supported by the Green Party, which believes the best way to wean the country off oil is to stop delivering it.

Well, they may get their wish.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley, pictured on the Hill on April 15, 2018, after meeting with B.C. Premier John Horgan and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

Rachel Notley, embroiled in her own strongman battle with United Conservative provincial leader Jason Kenney, has signalled her intention to use all the tools at her disposal to pressure British Columbia. That includes legislation curtailing the shipment of fuel and oil to her neighbours on the West Coast.

The Canadian government is vowing not to pick fights but the energy minister has signalled introduction of new legislation to guarantee federal primacy over the project.

That proposed law, yet to be tabled, has caught the attention of the Quebec government, with Horgan ready to make common cause with Philippe Couillard in opposition to federal authority.

Horgan has qualified the legal proposal as “trampling on provincial rights” but says in the same breath that provinces are trying to establish those rights. That statement itself undermines his claim that British Columbia has wide-ranging authority over pipeline permitting.

And he is intent on bringing Quebec into the dispute, to buttress his view that provincial jurisdiction takes precedence in any discussion about pipelines.

Meanwhile, the company behind the Trans Mountain Pipeline, has given the politicians until May 31 to come to an agreement that will permit the $7.4-billion expansion to go ahead.

That deadline is literally one week before two other political events take centre stage. Ontario goes to the polls on June 7 and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hosts the G-7 nations in the heart of Quebec on June 8 and 9.

Kinder Morgan had to know their deadline would put ultimate pressure for a solution on the national government.

Prime Minister Trudeau will be hosting leaders from key economic partners around the world, and sustainable development will be central to the economic discussion.

How to move away from a non-renewable fuel dependence in a country that is one of the top world producers of oil and gas is no mean feat.

It is one thing for German Chancellor Angela Merkel to heed the strong Green Party presence in her country.

She is not reaping royalties from oil and gas.

But the German economy is dependent on the success of Volkswagen and other key industrial partners, who have had problems with overstating environmental emission standards in automobiles.

No one is coming to the table with totally clean hands. But there is a lot more pressure on Trudeau to keep his environmental message on target while still supporting safe carriage of oil and gas products.

Pipelines are still the safest way to move product, and unless British Columbia wants to stop tourists from visiting its beautiful province, people will need gas to get there and oil to fuel business.

By the time the Charlevoix G-7 gathering takes place, the government may have already met the test of certainty sought by Kinder Morgan.

But the interprovincial tinderbox lit in the past week is not going to be snuffed out any time soon.

Meanwhile, Canada’s most populous province does not need to fight with anyone else. That slugfest is internal, with Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne and Conservative leader Doug Ford mincing no words in their mutual mistrust.

According to Ford, most Liberals should be in jail, and according to Wynne, her opponent is in this race only for himself.

Both came out of their respective corners itching for a fight last week. The formal election call has not even been launched and already the tone is down and dirty. More dirty than down.

The only certainty in interprovincial relations is it will get worse before it gets better.

Uglier than last week.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.