Current polling shows Prime Minister Mark Carney wins on global leadership. But support for the Conservatives remains strong on domestic issues. And at the end of the day, Canadians usually vote on pocketbook issues.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May 4, 2026.

OTTAWA—Former prime minister John Diefenbaker would often claim: “Polls are for dogs.”

In his first election, in 1957, Dief the Chief was elected in a minority government, but his second election in 1958 resulted in the largest Progressive Conservative majority in the history of Canada. Winning 208 of 265 seats, Dief’s record was unparalleled to this day.

Even during the Brian Mulroney sweep of 1984, the percentage in seat numbers could not rival that of Diefenbaker.

So why was Dief so disdainful of polls?

Diefenbaker personally experienced the fragility of political popularity. He went from being wildly popular in the 1958 sweep to being drummed out of the leadership at a bitter national convention only nine years later.

Diefenbaker learned the hard way that polls can be as fickle as the Canadian voter.

The polling numbers tracking Prime Minister Mark Carney today are eerily similar to those of a popular Dief.

With a first minority election under his belt, one year later, Carney could arguably be swept to a large majority if a general election were held today.

Instead, the Liberals’ new majority means that the prime minister will have three more years to build the “Canada Strong” theme that he has promoted in his first year of office.

Polling numbers greatly favour Carney when viewed in comparison to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

In the Nanos poll published last week, overall support for the Liberals stood at 45 per cent with Conservatives polled at 32 per cent.

When it comes to personal popularity, Carney outstrips Poilievre by 22 per cent.

Carney is also ahead of Poilievre in every demographic except that of younger men between the ages of 35 and 54. In that group, Poilievre enjoys a three per cent advantage at 45 per cent favourability.

Despite politicians’ claim that they don’t watch the polls, most do. There are a few reasons why the prime minister should take note of those numbers.

The group that Poilievre manages to win over is the group most closely aligned with issues Canadians are concerned about.

Canadians’ biggest concern these days is job jitters, and that is a shift from previous Nanos numbers which identified the Trump factor as No. 1.

Both are interrelated. Obviously, concerns about Canadian jobs stem from the decision by American president Donald Trump to close off northern borders and threaten key Canadian industries with punishing tariffs.

Carney’s economic announcement of more than $6-billion in skilled trades and apprenticeships last week will definitely seek to assuage job concerns.

Not coincidentally, the target group of weaker support for Carney, those younger men, will also benefit from the combination of mega-project investment and skilled-trade opportunities.

Like Poilievre, Carney has been pretty good at sloganeering. The promotion of a “Team Canada Strong” serves a dual purpose. It connotes strength in the national government, and addresses the simmering separation questions that will be coming to the fore in an upcoming Alberta referendum.

Unlike Poilievre, Carney’s personal popularity has not yet taken a hit. In another Angus Reid poll last week, 30 per cent of past Conservative voters want to replace Poilievre.

His caucus has been publicly supportive with recent sorties of support from Members of Parliament. But that could change quickly if his party rejects him. While 60 per cent of Canadians have a negative view of Poilievre, 57 per cent of Tories think he should stay on as leader.

But dissident numbers rose from 18 per cent last August to 30 per cent in April. If that trend continues, Poilievre could see his own job at risk.

If Poilievre were no longer the Conservative leader, numbers for Carney would definitely be affected.

Current polling shows Carney wins on international leadership. But support for the Conservatives remains strong on domestic issues.

And, at the end of the day, Canadians usually vote on pocketbook issues.

Perhaps the most relevant number in the Nanos polling is the move away from concern about Trumpian international uncertainty to worries about personal pocketbook issues.

Poilievre scores well when it comes to which leader is most focused on these issues.

If the Tories own the affordability question, and they decide to replace Poilievre with another leader, the halo currently worn by Carney could definitely be tarnished.

The deep dive into polling numbers is being done by all politicians, especially those who say they don’t care about polls.

Carney’s need to work on his standing with younger men has already been acknowledged. Expect more Liberal news on affordability and jobs to come.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Donald Trump keeps saying that Canada will be better off, with a better health-care system, better jobs and a better economy if it joins the United States.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on February 17, 2025.

OTTAWA—Sixty years have passed since Canada broke from British tradition to adopt a unique flag.

The distinctive red Maple Leaf is now recognized around the world as a symbol of Canada, but it was a much more divisive debate six decades ago.

With the exception of U.S. President Donald Trump, most people see our flag as a symbol of freedom and diversity. It often adorns backpacks of young travellers as a flag that is welcomed everywhere.

It wasn’t always so. In 1965, the Progressive Conservatives thought the adoption of a new flag was an insult to those who fought in two world wars under the unofficial national Red Ensign. The ensign included a smaller union jack and a Canadian coat of arms.

Former prime minister John Diefenbaker made it his personal mission to fight the flag.

Prime minister Lester Pearson preferred another design, which included three red flags attached by a stem with a blue border. The original designer of the flag, Mount Allison University historian George Stanley, received death threats.

The Tories voted for the single maple leaf design, thinking Liberals would support the tri-leaf version that was called the Pearson Pennant. Instead, Liberals also supported the single Maple Leaf, and an all-party committee voted 15-0 in favour of the Stanley-designed flag that was inspired by the flag of the Royal Military College in Kingston.

While the world may have embraced it, even modern-day Conservative governments have not been so celebratory.

On the 50th anniversary of the introduction of the flag, then-Canadian heritage minister Conservative Shelly Glover refused to organize a celebration of the event.

While local flag-raisings took place across the country, the only official national celebration was held by then-governor general David Johnston.

Current Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has taken a more celebratory approach to the flag.

In Tory advertisements, Poilievre is often seen walking in a field under the shadow of a huge Canadian flag.

The use of the flag as a symbol adopted by anti-vax truckers has now made its display permissible for all political stripes.

Trump recently communicated his message of economic domination by tweeting a photograph of himself standing on a mountain with a Canadian flag flying proudly behind him.

And five living Canadian prime ministers called on all Canadians to fly our flag on the anniversary date as a message to Trump that our country has no intention of becoming America’s 51st state.

In a joint letter signed by former prime ministers Stephen Harper, Joe Clark, Paul Martin, Kim Campbell, and Jean Chrétien, the leaders called on Canadians to fly the flag this past Saturday to answer the “threats and insults from Donald Trump.”

And while in Brussels attending a meeting with European leaders, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it very clear that there’s “not a snowball’s chance in hell” of Canada joining the United States.

He’s enlisting the support of international partners, including the European Union, as most states have been strangely silent on Trump’s annexation comments.

Europeans are listening now because Trump has been threatening them with tariffs, as well.

The Danish government has reacted to Trump’s announcement that he would like to take over Greenland. As well as threatening retaliatory tariffs on Ozempic, Denmark’s biggest export to the U.S., some Danes have launched a petition to buy California.

While all Canadians are now uniting behind the flag, the Trump threat may also serve to be a catalyst for breaking down interprovincial barriers.

If we can build a pipeline to send Alberta crude for refining in Illinois and Texas, surely, we can do the same for eastern Canada.

So when we have been delivered lemons by Trump, we need to make lemonade. And we need to start recognizing the great benefits that come with life under the Canadian flag.

Poilievre’s message that Canada is broken now needs reworking, and he was slated to deliver a major pivotal speech this past weekend.

His message will need massaging because the idea that Canada is broken plays right into the hands of Trump, who plans to crush our country economically.

Trump keeps saying that Canada will be better off, with a better health-care system, better jobs and a better economy if we join the U.S.

He also revealed earlier last week that when it comes to takeover of foreign lands, he believes he has the legal right to “take over the Gaza Strip and occupy it.”

Insert “Canada,” and we have an idea of what might be coming.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.