Pablo Rodriquez has integrated beautifully into the Quebec political world, and is widely recognized as a great organizer in all regions. That would make his decision to leave even tougher for Prime Minister Trudeau as there is no lieutenant heir apparent waiting in the wings.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on August 12, 2024.

OTTAWA—Pablo Rodriguez is considering a run at the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party.

When the news broke last week, he neither confirmed nor denied but his response made it fairly obvious that he will be going.

“As minister of transport and Quebec lieutenant in Justin Trudeau’s government, I am proud to work hard for the good of all Quebecers and all Canadians. I am sincerely touched by the many requests I have received to return to where it all began for me,” was the comment he offered up after Radio Canada ran a story saying he was considering the move.

The Quebec Liberal Party leadership will be held in Quebec City on June 14 of next year.

Denis Coderre, former federal Liberal cabinet minister and former Montreal mayor, is currently the only candidate in the race.

By the sounds of Rodriguez’ statement, he will be joining Coderre in the near future.

Rodriquez began his political career as a member of the Quebec Liberal Party’s youth commission in the 1990s.

As the son of an immigrant who studied in Sherbrooke, Que., Rodriquez has a reputation as a great political organizer. He is also seen as more of a team player than Coderre.

Rodriquez has maintained good relationships with members in both the provincial and federal parties, which is not always the case.

The last provincial Liberal premier was Jean Charest, who was obviously not a federal Liberal. In many instances, there has been huge antipathy between the two organizations.

Someone who could bring them together would be seen as an attractive political alternative.

Rodriguez has been struggling to establish his political footprint at Transport Canada, a department notorious for boring its ministers to death with operational minutiae and very little in the way of public profile.

Rodriguez has found some success in his attempt to stem the tide of Canadian car thefts, with stolen vehicles exiting through the port of Montreal. By spearheading a national anti-theft strategy, he has managed to command some media attention.

But he misses his former portfolio in Canadian Heritage, where the length and breadth of cultural issues were perfect for a minister whose mother tongue was neither English nor French.

Rodriquez has integrated beautifully into the Quebec political world, and is widely recognized as a great organizer in all regions.

That would make his decision to leave even tougher for Prime Minister Trudeau as there is no lieutenant heir apparent waiting in the wings.

Other current Quebec ministers are either short on experience or not very political.

And the one thing a lieutenant needs is political antennae, especially in the leadup to what is likely to be a very tough campaign for the federal Liberals next year.

It is the second time in as many weeks that Trudeau is receiving what could turn out to be bad news from his ministers.

The decision of Seamus O’Regan to retire from politics was announced on July 18.

O’Regan said he was stepping down for family reasons, but everyone knows re-election in his riding of St. John’s South-Mount Pearl, N.L., would be tough.

The relatively new riding includes about 95 per cent of the former St. John’s West, which has been largely dominated by Conservatives. The most notable Tory was John Crosbie who held the seat for 16 years.

O’Regan has been victorious in his riding since 2015, but that could change. If current polling continues, his riding is highly likely to go Tory.

As a personal friend of the prime minister, who even served in his wedding party, O’Regan’s decision to leave is pretty clearly based on a keen reading of the tea leaves.

O’Regan was a broadcaster before entering politics. He, more than most, understands that it is only a rising tide that lifts all boats. The current Liberal tide does not appear to be rising.

If the party’s polling numbers don’t improve, more Liberals can be expected to ponder on their own futures after spending time in their constituencies.

They are no doubt getting an earful from disgruntled voters.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez’s potential departure would leave a huge gap in the Liberal electoral machine in Quebec.

Quebec is the one region that has spurned the political advances of Pierre Poilievre and will likely continue to support a native son in the next election.

But races will be tight, and the party needs good on-the-ground support to recruit candidates and organizers.

Rodriguez was key to that structure. His leave taking could create an unfillable political hole.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on July 17, 2023.

OTTAWA—According to Albert Einstein, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Someone should tell that to Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. The bank has hiked interest rates 10 times since March of last year.

Instead of cooling the economy, the action simply hits workers harder. The Canadian economy continues to expand, with 60,000 new jobs added last month. Companies continue to face a worker shortage, forcing employers to increase their wage offerings in the hunt for employees. That is not a bad thing.

But hiking interest rates increases costs and depresses wages. Macklem insists his monetary policy is working, but he cannot say whether or not last week’s rate rise will work, calling for patience to see whether the actions succeed in reining in inflation.

Patience may be fine for those managing the money markets, but what about ordinary citizens on the verge of losing their homes because of the hike in interest rates?

The moves are fodder for New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh, who says these interest rate hikes are simply making things worse for workers and businesses. Singh is calling the current situation “greedflation,” and he blames the problem on greedy CEOs who are using the inflationary crisis to make more profit and gouge consumers. He says the government has to take another approach to tackle the current inflationary spiral.

Singh says supply chain issues, the war in Ukraine, and the cost of housing and groceries are responsible. None of these factors will be affected by interest rate increases. Only the pocketbooks of ordinary Canadians are touched.

Singh’s criticisms enjoin the year-long campaign of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who started calling for the firing of the Bank of Canada governor during his run for the party leadership. However, Poilievre’s financial acumen took a hit when he also suggested that Canadians should invest in cryptocurrency because it allows them to escape the inflation being created by the central bank.

Leadership opponent Jean Charest attacked Poilievre’s firing promise, and then Conservative finance critic Ed Fast stepped down from his post, claiming, “I’m deeply troubled by suggestions by one of our leadership candidates that the candidate would be prepared to interfere already at this stage in the independence of our central bank.”

That statement was made more than a year ago, but the continual climb in interest rates has started to create political pressure from both the right and the left. Singh is not calling for Macklem’s resignation, but he is asking for a change in the bank’s conventional approach to fighting inflation.

With complaints from both sides, the government is going to face some real pressure to pivot financially. Liberals can’t afford to fight inflation and an election. However, the fact that the Federal Reserve in the United States is expected to raise rates slightly at the end of the month could blunt criticism of the Canadian situation.

At the end of the day, ordinary Canadians are feeling the pinch at the grocery store and in the housing market. The cost of rental accommodation is skyrocketing across the country, and the path to home ownership for many is blocked by the high cost of mortgages.

Macklem is not the only central bank governor using interest rates as a blunt instrument, and if there is another route, it must be determined by the government, not the bank governor.

With grocery profits in the eye of the storm while prices seem to increase weekly, more needs to be done in that area. The recent price-fixing decision of the Competition Bureau, issuing a $50-million fine against Canada Bread, was a good first step.

But that money should go back to those Canadians who paid excessive prices for years.

Likewise, the bureau can do more, including speeding up the length and breadth of its investigations into price-gouging. The bread investigation took seven years and involved immunity to Loblaw Companies for revealing its part in the scheme. On average, the Competition Bureau found that Canadians paid $1.50 extra for bread products for the past eight years because of the collusion.

There are undoubtedly other food groups and other consumer items that face a similar lack of competition because of price-fixing. A move to strengthen the budget and investigative strength of the Competition Bureau would be a good place to start.

Firing the bank governor is not the answer. But doing something to stop price gouging would be a good start.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Most commentators ignored the paucity of diversity on his team. But for those of us who care about these issues, the photo was a stark visual reminder that in Poilievre’s party, it is still a man’s world.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 19, 2022.

OTTAWA—Will Rogers said you never get a second chance to make a first impression. Pierre Poilievre must not have been listening.

If so, his first week as leader could have been a winner.

On the evening of his coronation, even with regal funereal news competition from across the pond, Poilievre knocked it out of the park.

His spouse’s introduction placed the new leader exactly where he needs to be, a happy family man whose soft edges are inclusive.

His embrace of personal diversity, including his own family story, were certainly not aligned with the narrative he had used to steamroll his way into the win.

The party endorsement was overwhelming. Two-thirds of the vote went to him, while former premier Jean Charest was reduced to the teens.

Poilievre’s opening performance seemed to indicate that he was prepared to pivot. Having convinced the vast majority of fellow Conservatives that he was their man, his job is now to convince the country.

The acceptance speech got a lot of Liberals worried. Several former cabinet colleagues were gathered at a Toronto symposium on foreign policy the same weekend.

The group’s consensus was that the government would be foolish to assume that Poilievre could not win an election.

The good news for Liberals is that most people do not tune in to party conventions.

And the softer side of the new leader was immediately disposed of at his first post-leader press conference.

After opening the presser with a refusal to take questions, Poilievre was heckled by Global News reporter David Akin, who insistently raised his voice to ensure a question period.

Poilievre accused Akin of being a Liberal plant, set up to heckle him on his first day.

His tone was crisp and angry. That was the first impression he left with those who were seeing the Conservative leader for the first time.

Akin, hardly a Liberal troll, was immediately attacked by Tories heeding Poilievre’s call to “go around” the media.

Later that day, Akin posted a Twitter apology, characterizing his outburst as “rude and disrespectful.”

But that did not stop the Tories from using the incident as a fundraiser.

Within 48 hours, Poilievre’s team sent out a fundraising email, claiming the party could not count on the media to carry their message, saying, “we have to go around them and their biased coverage.”

He also reiterated his promise to defund the CBC.

Poilievre has obviously decided that his best path to victory is in bypassing the media, mobilizing followers to use social channels and attack the messenger.

In the Akin instance that worked, as the apology actually set up the narrative of an aggrieved party that cannot count on reporters to tell the truth.

But Poilievre tried the same tactic in French and he got his clock cleaned.

This mistake will prove a lot more damaging than Poilievre’s decision to bypass the mainstream media in English.

When former Quebec lieutenant Alain Rayes announced he was leaving the party because Poilievre’s leadership was incompatible with his values, Tory trollers were whipped into high gear.

Instead of adopting a conciliatory tone which could have downplayed the departure, the leader came out with fists swinging.

He accused Rayes of refusing to fight Justin Trudeau’s inflation and went on to claim that he had the support of the majority in Rayes’ riding as 53 per cent of the 663 Tory ballots cast there were for Poilievre.

That may be the only time Poilievre gets a majority in Quebec.

His thrashing of a native son did not play well, and his next move was career-shortening.

The leader sent a message to electors in Rayes’ riding, asking them to phone the office of their Member of Parliament to demand his resignation.

When that news became public, the backlash was so horrendous that Poilievre became the one doing the apologizing.

Two apologies in a week marked Poilievre’s public foray as leader.

The announcement of his leadership team, complete with a photo on the steps of the West Block, was also a step backward.

In a team of 10, Poilievre only managed to include two women and one racialized Canadian.

Compare that to the equity cabinet of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It makes one wonder if the Tories are going back to the future.

Most commentators ignored the paucity of diversity on his team.

But for those of us who care about these issues, the photo was a stark visual reminder that in Poilievre’s party, it is still a man’s world.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

It would be a huge mistake to think that a right-wing Conservative is unelectable in Canada. In politics, anything is possible.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on August 8, 2022.

OTTAWA—Jean Charest was at his most eloquent during the recent Conservative debate last week.

The only problem, the lights were on, but there was no Tory home.

The debate did not attract major television attention and was held at 6 p.m. Eastern Time, pretty much the worst possible slot for widespread coverage.

But the whole purpose of the event was to avoid national attention.

After all, what political party has a debate where the front-runner refuses to attend and simply pays a $50,000 fine to absent himself from the proceedings?

Pierre Poilievre and Leslyn Lewis both coughed up the $50,000 so the party actually made money by allowing two candidates to duck out of a leadership debate.

That will probably not be the end of the story.

Elections Canada, which has some oversight of party nomination processes, will probably be asked to take a look at the payments, as the Tories might have benefited from a tax credit courtesy of the Canadian taxpayer.

But the sad thing about the non-debate is that nobody beyond those actually voting in the leadership even care about this egregious abuse of process.

Too bad for the Conservatives. Had they actually watched Charest in action, they might have come to the conclusion that the rest of the country has already arrived at: Charest stands the best chance of all Tory candidates of defeating the current government.

He is seen as capable, moderate, and appeals to those in the centre who have kept the Tories out of power for years.

The debate was a bit of a moot point. According to official Conservative records, in excess of 100,000 ballots have already been mailed into headquarters, more than a month before the winner’s announcement on Sept. 10.

If the twitterverse is any indication, dozens of voters claimed that Charest’s performance could not change their minds, as they had already voted for Poilievre.

The eligible voters’ list is more than 600,000, but there is a chance many of them may not vote.

The decision of the party to turf candidate Patrick Brown because of alleged irregularities will undoubtedly cause some of his supporters to boycott the race.

Others will likely throw their support behind Charest, who is the most closely linked to Brown in political ideology.

But if history is any indication, the party will be hard-pressed to get a 50 per cent voter turnout in the dog days of summer.

The whole intent of the campaign was to keep it as low-key as possible, which plays in the favour of front-runner Poilievre.

The race is certainly as close to a coronation that any party could carry out. Sometimes, a healthy and robust leadership race can be good for the process.

Liberals had their experience with a coronation and it did not end well. When the party believed that finance minister Paul Martin was the obvious choice, the race became a coronation.

At the final Toronto celebration, in a standing-room-only Air Canada Centre event, even international celebrities like Bono attended to congratulate the future prime minister.

The biggest question facing Martin’s leadership at that moment was how many years he would stay. In the end, the coronation fractured the party.

In the current Conservative leadership, a similar front-runner phenomenon is unfolding.

Unlike Martin, who was already extremely popular with the public at large when he was chosen, Poilievre mainly appeals to the right-wing of his own party.

He will have a hard time convincing the moderate middle to support him.

That is what all other parties, especially Liberals, are counting on.

If Charest were to be successful in September, Liberals on the Hill would sit up and take notice.

They know he has the capacity to turn things around in Quebec, and whither Quebec goes, so goes the country.

Charest would also bring progressive Conservatives back into the fold. These are the Red Tories who the party must attract to win elections.

If Poilievre succeeds, as is most likely, Liberals will be counting on him to stay in the opposition benches.

However, there is a truism in politics.

When it comes to elections, opposition parties don’t win, governments lose.

When voters decide they have had enough, they will move to throw the government out. In most cases, they are prepared to give the opposition leader the benefit of the doubt.

A Poilievre win could be very feasible.

It would be a huge mistake to think that a right-wing Conservative is unelectable in Canada.

In politics, anything is possible.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By retreating into a cone of silence over the specific allegations that led to Patrick Brown’s disqualification, Conservative Party brass stand to delegitimize the whole leadership process.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on July 11, 2022.

OTTAWA—Patrick Brown has just suffered his second political assassination.

The first was at the hands of the provincial Progressive Conservative Party in Ontario, when he was dumped from his leader’s job based on allegations of sexual impropriety, which he denies.

In that first instance, Brown claimed he was the victim of a “fabricated political assassination.”

The story led to a late-night emergency meeting of the provincial party executive and a quick decision to dump Brown as leader.

The network stood by its story, but in the end, issued a correction saying that certain aspects of the story were “factually incorrect and required correction.”

The correction came four years after the career-ending story, just before Brown joined the current federal party leadership race.

History repeated itself last week as, right in the middle of a leadership race, the Conservative Party of Canada turfed Brown, alleging serious but secret breaches of Election Act financing rules by the Brown team.

After announcing the expulsion, the party went mum, explaining that as the matter is under further investigation, there will be no additional official comments on the specifics of the allegations.

Buried in the entrails of the allegations was a ruling by the party that Brown’s campaign had not and would not receive a copy of the interim membership list, as a result of the firing.

Why is that relevant?

Well, the only political game in town over the next two months is an opportunity to switch voters who have already registered.

The persuasion campaign will be undertaken by all the candidates, but it is believed the top two candidates in voter sales were frontrunner Pierre Poilievre followed by Brown.

I was told by a Tory insider that Poilievre outsold former Quebec premier Jean Charest 11 to one in Quebec.

But the difference between Brown and Poilievre sales is less evident.

So, if the party has airtight information on election breaches, why not publish it and let the voters decide?

By retreating into a cone of silence, the brass stands to delegitimize the whole process.

Brown thinks there is more to this than an alleged violation.

His lawyer fired off a letter to the party, requesting it safeguard all communications, including those with the Poilievre campaign, that are pertinent to the allegations.

“Please take immediate steps to ensure that all documents and records of any kind whatsoever including emails, text messages, WhatsApp messages, and any other forms of electronic communication concerning the disqualification and the process leading to it are preserved …. advising all members of LEOC [Leadership Election Organizing Committee] to retain all of their communication with members of the Pierre Poilievre campaign and other stakeholders in relation to Patrick Brown,” the letter said.

Brown retained the firm of Henein Hutchison, which is no slouch when it comes to high-profile legal proceedings. Marie Henein was the lawyer who successfully defended Jian Ghomeshi against sexual assault charges.

Toronto Life magazine dubbed Henein “the fixer,” saying she was the most sought-after defence lawyer in Toronto.

In Brown’s case, there are no criminal charges as yet, but there is certainly a case pending, with huge political implications, that will garner the attention of the whole country.

This is one controversy the Conservative Party does not need. Just recently, long-term former senator and staunch Conservative Marjory LeBreton gave a candid television interview in which she feared that Conservative leadership candidates jumping on the “grievance brigade” would fracture the party irreparably.

LeBreton said she feared the union of the Progressive Conservatives and the Reformers, orchestrated by Peter MacKay and Stephen Harper in 2003, may not survive this leadership change.

Those ominous reflections occurred even before Brown’s expulsion from the race.

One can only assume that the cleavage between the former Progressive Conservatives and Reformers will only grow as a result of last week’s bizarre firing.

Multiple senior Conservatives came out publicly to demand more transparency regarding the decision

Strategist Tim Powers said the party could be damaged if it continues to withhold information from the public.

Ballots for the September vote were sent out before Brown was removed, which means his name will remain as a leadership choice.

That seems strange, because if the party was investigating allegations, it could have delayed striking the ballots until the investigation was concluded.

Instead, the ballot is going to include an ineligible candidate on the progressive side, instead of clearing the field for a fight between Poilievre and Charest. And that can only benefit Poilievre.

On the surface, it certainly looks as though the party fix is in.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

If he doesn’t connect with the truckers who are promising weeks of disruption, he runs the risk of being outed as a non-supporter. If he does stand with the truckers, he runs the counter-risk of facing the ire of citizens in the Ottawa region, including those in his own Ottawa riding, Carleton.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on June 27, 2022.

OTTAWA—Pierre Poilievre’s Canada Day celebrations may blow up in his face.

If he doesn’t connect with the truckers who are promising weeks of disruption, he runs the risk of being outed as a non-supporter.

If he does stand with the truckers, he runs the counter-risk of facing the ire of citizens in the Ottawa region, including those in his own Ottawa-area riding, Carleton.

They handed him a healthy plurality in the last election but just last week, Mainstreet Research published some interesting data about how the trucker-Pierre tango was viewed by voters.

Amongst 555 constituents polled by Mainstreet between June 13-14, Poilievre enjoyed a healthy 10 per cent majority over his closest opponent in the last election.

If that same election were held today, Poilievre would still be in the lead, but his margin of victory would shrink by half.

According to respondents, the single biggest factor in their dissatisfaction was Poilievre’s support for the Ottawa convoy blockade.

Forty-nine per cent of those polled said they would be less likely to vote for the Conservatives if the riding representative was Poilievre.

It appears as though the trucker occupation played a huge rule in Poilievre’s fall from electoral grace.

The Mainstreet question was clear: “During the trucker occupation … Pierre Poilievre met with and encouraged the freedom protesters. How has this impacted your opinion of your Member of Parliament?”

Fifty-six per cent of those interviewed said they had a “much less favourable” opinion of Poilievre because of his blockade support. An additional 10 per cent said they had a “somewhat less favourable opinion.”

By contrast, only 15 per cent said they had a “much more favourable” opinion, while three per cent claimed a “somewhat more favourable” opinion.

In the next month, the truckers have vowed to return to Ottawa to disrupt Canada Day and remain in the capital throughout the month of July.

They may be pleased to return to the scene of the crime, but Poilievre and the Conservatives can’t be too thrilled.

So far, Poilievre’s support of the truckers has not made much news beyond the nation’s capital.

It really is an “inside the beltway story.” But inside the beltway is Poilievre’s own constituency, and he could vault to the top of the Tories, only to be spurned by local voters in the next election.

Most party leaders are supported by their constituents. It is only when the party faces dire straits that the leader is defeated. Witness the rejection of Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca in his own riding the recent Ontario election.

But being a representative in the nation’s capital is not the same as other ridings across the country.

There, people do expect you to stare down the Freedom Convoy and support the residents, not vice versa.

Last January and February were brutal times for the 30,000 people who live in Ottawa’s downtown core.

According to a friend who lives there, the only dialogue that happened between truckers and residents was a volley of epithets that started with “f” and ended with “u.”

The city is bracing for the same nastiness next week. And Poilievre has to make up his mind whether he represents his constituents or the freedom convoy, because, if the Mainstreet poll is accurate, it cannot be both.

It remains to be seen whether Poilievre can translate his obvious internal popularity into votes across the broad spectrum of Canadians.

But the early signal from his riding sounds a warning bell.

Swinging so far right may win support within Conservative party circles.

But that swing also alienates the majority of mainstream voters.

With the crash of crypto-currency and the pushback on his view of the governor of the Bank of Canada, Poilievre appears to be resonating within his own party.

His situation is so strong that, not only did Patrick Brown’s co-chair bolt, as referenced in last week’s column, but also Brown’s campaign manager quickly followed Michelle Rempel Garner, abruptly leaving Brown’s campaign to work for her potential Alberta leadership entry. Rempel Garner has since decided not run for the UCP leadership.

Jean Charest continues to insist publicly that “I will win this.” He is pumping up his supporters with audacious declarations of victory. But his own numbers do not appear to back up those words.

Poilievre and Brown membership sales allegedly amount to 75 per cent of the total, so it is tough to see how Charest will win.

Poilievre is definitely ahead.

How he handles the Canada Day convoy will signal much about his capacity to win an election.

Like Icarus, flying too close to the truckers might burn him badly.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

After devoting 11 years to federal politics, the Calgary-Nose Hill Member of Parliament would be a shoo-in for a senior position if Brown were to win the leadership. Michelle Rempel Garner would likely have been in contention as well if Jean Charest were victorious, as he could win the leadership only with the support of the Brown team.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on June 20, 2022.

OTTAWA—Michelle Rempel Garner must be reading the tea leaves.

She was running the federal Conservative leadership campaign for Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown.

And mid-way through the campaign, the Twitter-verse has been filled with stories that she will likely be leaving federal politics to run for the top job of Alberta’s United Conservative Party.

Using Twitter as her preferred platform, Rempel Garner announced last week that she was stepping down as Brown campaign co-chair to give “serious consideration” to a provincial leadership bid.

“I owe it to Albertans to give this critical decision my full and complete attention,” she wrote on Twitter.

Rempel Garner went on to say that “I continue to be inspired by the optimism of Albertans, who have been through much but remain hopeful. We are—and always have been—worth fighting for. I’ll have more to say soon. Giddyup.”

In reality, Garner Rempel could pursue twin goals, a provincial leadership race along with the co-chairing responsibilities for her chosen leadership candidate.

There is more than a month separating the federal conclusion and the provincial vote, and much of the work on both fronts is carried out via internet and Zoom.

The sale of Conservative memberships is closed on the federal scene, so there is no need to travel extensively to recruit new members.

Instead, the campaign is entering the persuasion stage, where the candidates themselves need to keep travelling in order to attract undecided voters or switch those who have committed to an opponent.

Her decision to step aside comes as the final membership numbers place Pierre Poilievre in an unbeatable position. His campaign claims to have sold double the number of memberships of the Brown team.

Rempel Garner’s withdrawal is a blow to the Brampton mayor’s leadership bid, but not an unexpected turn of events.

The Alberta Member of Parliament is a proud, gun-toting Albertan and many observers feel her place in a provincial race would be as front-runner.

As for Brown, Jean Charest and other federal leadership candidates, the membership deadline confirmed the Poilievre front-runner status.

He is also extremely popular with current Conservative voters. Last week’s Léger poll claimed his support among Tory voters is almost triple that of his closest rival, Charest.

Poilievre was the choice of 44 per cent of Tory supporters while his nearest challenger, former Quebec premier Charest, polled at just 14 per cent. Brown was in the single digits at four per cent, clearly a signal that he has not resonated with the group he needs to win. Those numbers are almost reversed when it comes to polling opinions of Liberals and New Democrats. They believe Charest would be the best Tory leader. Charest polled 25 per cent support from Liberal and NDP supporters, while Brown polled at 11 per cent. Front-runner Poilievre garnered only six per cent support from those who vote Liberal or NDP.

But he doesn’t need those voters to win the leadership.

He only needs Tories. And Rempel Garner’s early departure is a clear signal that he is going to get them.

After devoting 11 years to federal politics, the Calgary-Nose Hill Member of Parliament would be a shoo-in for a senior position if Brown were to win the leadership. She would likely have been in contention as well if Charest were victorious, as he could win the leadership only with the support of the Brown team.

As for Poilievre, she has already burned that bridge. Two months ago, Rempel Garner took to the internet to call out Poilievre as a “fringe party on the right” leader and she went on to say “we can’t go through another leadership with the result being somebody who is unelectable.”

But it appears as though that is exactly what her party is going to do. Two Brown supporters in the caucus recently defected to Poilievre and the departure of Rempel Garner leaves Brown with only one Member of Parliament supporting his leadership.

Poilievre has 56 MPs supporting his candidacy, so the list of those seeking senior positions on his team is very long and there won’t be any room for Garner Rempel in the event the front-runner wins.

So, the timing for Garner Rempel to switch to provincial politics is perfect. She is well-known in Alberta and currently represents one of the most Conservative ridings in the country.

She will enter a crowded field of candidates, but her background and experience could reward her with an easy win. Her toughest job will then be building those Conservative bridges back.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

That is what we can expect if Pierre Poilievre wins the Conservative leadership, according to chief rival Jean Charest.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May 30, 2022.

OTTAWA—The Americanization of Canadian politics. That is what we can expect if Pierre Poilievre wins the Conservative leadership, according to chief rival Jean Charest.

Charest pulled no punches in an aggressive closing statement at the party’s French, and final, debate in Laval last Wednesday night.

“The question we face is a very serious one. Will we in the Conservative Party take the path of American-style politics, the politics of attack, the politics where we play one group against another, the politics where every answer is a dodge? Or are we going to do Canadian politics for Canadians. That is the option I offer, not to be a pseudo-American. That is not what we want as a country. We want a leader who is able to unite the party and who has judgment, who does not send signals about conspiracy theories, who spills over into theories about the Bank of Canada or Bitcoin.”

Fellow candidate Patrick Brown doubled down in tandem attacks on Poilievre. Both candidates appeared so closely aligned in their views of Poilievre that they were asked whether they had already crafted a political pact to defeat the putative front-runner.

Brown ventured even further in a presser following the debate. He went so far as to say Poilievre has no chance of becoming prime minister.

By contrast, Charest insisted that his character and experience included the qualities to become prime minister, not just the leader of the official opposition.

But Charest’s record also provided fodder for attacks from Poilievre, who accused the former Quebec premier of raising taxes, and supporting carbon pricing.

When Poilievre was attacked for supporting the Truckers’ Freedom Convoy, he blasted back that he had no lessons to learn from Charest, referencing the Charbonneau Commission as an example of Charest’s questionable record.

When Charest told the crowd it would be his job as Conservative leader to retire the 32 Bloc Québécois members currently sitting in the Canadian Parliament, Poilievre retorted that Charest was the one who was retired by separatists.

At the end of the fiery debate, the other three candidates for the Conservative leadership were literally left in the proverbial dust.

Their poor grasp of the French language left them all ill-equipped to spar with the ease of the three on top.

Leslyn Lewis struggled with her cue cards, and Roman Baber used his limited French to primarily decry his birthplace in the former Soviet Union.

Scott Aitchison managed to master the ask in multiple, comic attempts to direct viewers to his website.

That recruitment technique will not vault him to the top, but all candidates are pushing hard to sell as many memberships as possible before the cut-off date on Friday, June 3.

As of Friday, the second phase of the campaign moves from recruitment to conversion. Just because one campaign signed up a member, that new recruit can actually change their mind and vote for another candidate in the voting system on Sept. 10.

Whatever the outcome, it is awfully hard to see how the losers will actually line up behind the winner.

The bad blood amongst the party front-runners could end up killing their chances of forming the next government.

It is hard to see how Charest could align himself with a potential Poilievre prime minister if the former Quebec premier loses the race.

He is an experienced politician who knows what it means to burn political bridges. His attack last week sent the signal that if he does not win, it is unlikely that he will be running as part of the Conservative team.

And the charge of “pseudo-American populism” is one that will stick.

In addition to the Tory leadership last week, the whole country witnessed another mass murder in Texas carried out by an 18-year-old American who had no trouble securing two assault weapons after his 18th birthday.

But instead of tackling the gun availability issue, Senator Ted Cruz blamed the massacre on the fact that the school’s back door was left open.

It is painful to watch the mounting pile of bodies dying at the hands of crazed gunmen almost weekly in the United States. As the issue is so polarized, nothing is ever really done to limit access to weapons beyond the usual plethora of post-mortem platitudes from political leaders.

American president Joe Biden has again promised to fight the gun lobby, but his level of success remains to be seen. Regular mass murders without consequence are one reason that Canadians fear “pseudo-American populism.”

Tory populists may disagree.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Jason Kenney’s departure was unexpected as he had gathered together a group of key supporters for what was expected to be a victory celebration.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May 23, 2022.

OTTAWA—Internal party warfare can be fatal.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney eked out a bare majority in a party vote on his leadership, only to be forced out by advisers’ pressure.

Kenney’s departure was unexpected as he had gathered together a group of key supporters for what was expected to be a victory celebration.

Days before the United Conservative Party mail-in vote was announced, Kenney claimed that he would stay on if he secured a single-vote majority.

A large gathering of supporters was expecting to see Kenney continue in the job, but instead, he dropped a bombshell last Wednesday night.

In the end, the pressure inside his own party was just too great, so Kenney decided to step down after 48.6 per cent of UCP review voters said they wanted him out.

Meanwhile, the internal fight in the federal Conservative party gets more bitter by the day. Last week, saw candidate slagging candidate, and supporters’ slagging each other.

The climate got so difficult that former finance minister Ed Fast felt compelled to quit his job as Conservative caucus finance critic in opposition to Pierre Poilievre’s promise to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada.

Claims of party-based racism and sleazy politics were traded as candidate Patrick Brown accused Poilievre of aligning with racists in his support of the trucker occupation on Parliament Hill.

Brown supporter, Michelle Rempel-Garner weighed in on the racism theme, accusing Poilievre of being too slow to condemn the race-based slaughter south of the border in Buffalo.

Brown also attacked Poilievre supporters for allegedly criticizing his campaign’s push to sell memberships to racialized minorities.

The past week in the Conservative party has seen the temperature increase as the end of the membership sale period looms.

The federal party Twitter feed was vitriolic, with candidates lining up to accuse each other of stoking the flames of racism. In a media interview, Poilievre promoted his use of “Anglo-Saxon” language, a lift from white supremacists’ vocabulary.

Compare federal Tory accusations to the civilized official Ontario election debate last week. Hosted by TVO’s Steve Paikin and Althia Raj of The Toronto Star, the debate was positively benign in comparison.

Candidates respected rules and time limits. They were careful to attack their opponents on policies, not personalities.

New Democratic Party Leader Andrea Horwath delivered a surprisingly listless performance, absent her usual excellent communication skills.

Later in the week, she joined Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner with a diagnosis of COVID. Both were forced into virtual campaigns in the final stretch of the election.

While the NDP leader flagged, the Green leader shone in the debate. Schreiner was personable, articulate and knowledgeable, particularly on climate change issues.

Premier Doug Ford carried out his usual, aw shucks schtick, claiming friendship with everyone on the podium and defending government policies.

The most controversial was the Conservative promise of a $10-billion investment to build a highway which is not supported by any other leader.

In the last campaign, Ford promised a buck a beer in an attempt to reach out to the blue-collar cohort that was key to his victory.

This time, Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca promised a buck a bus ticket, vowing to take thousands of cars off the road by making public transit more affordable.

The Grit leader also promised to divert Ford’s $10-billion proposed road investment into education, repairing and building schools and cutting class sizes.

Horwath pitched an increase in the minimum wage, in direct contrast to Ford’s decision to abolish planned increases early in his term in office.

The NDP leader primarily focused on her base. But she took a direct hit when the premier claimed that unions were moving away from their traditional support for her party in favour of his re-election.

Ford’s strategy worked, with NDP support slipping after the debate.

That was good news for the Liberals because many anti-Ford voters want to rally behind the party that has the best chance to defeat the current government.

The latest six-point difference keeps Ford in the lead with just two weeks to go before voting day. But the 10-point difference between the Liberals and the New Democrats really favours a potential momentum shift to Del Duca.

As for internal Conservative struggles, on the federal level it is difficult to see how the angry differences among leadership camps of Poilievre, Charest and Brown can be healed in a post-campaign show of unity.

Centrist Conservatives may not elect a party leader.

But they hold the key to 24 Sussex.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Controversy inside the Conservative federal leadership race will have a spillover effect into the provincial elections in Ontario and Quebec.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on March 21, 2022.

OTTAWA—By summer’s end, the Canadian political landscape could change dramatically.

Ontario is into a provincial election in less than two months, smack in the middle of a national Conservative leadership race.

Quebec must have an election by Oct. 3, and next month Alberta’s controversial premier faces an internal review which could plunge his party into another fight.

Federal and provincial parties are separate, but the voting public sees them all as a single, homogenous mass.

So, controversy inside the Conservative federal leadership race will have a spillover effect into the provincial elections in Ontario and Quebec.

In Ontario, the premier has already stated that he will remain neutral and none of his ministers will be involved in any campaign.

That is bad news for Jean Charest, as the leadership list of Caroline Mulroney, whose family has deep ties with the former Quebec premier, could be very valuable.

Charest’s only path to victory is to saturate Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada with enough votes to overcome his socially conservative deficit in the west.

But even though Mulroney herself cannot get involved, there is nothing stopping key organizers from enlisting volunteers and voters for Charest.

The organizing skills of former provincial Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown are well known. He could secure a base for a more centrist vote which would likely end up in Charest’s camp in a frontrunner’s fight.

Brown has no love for the premier, as Doug Ford actually came to office after Brown resigned following two allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denied and for which CTV recently expressed “regrets” over some inaccurate details in its story. The Brown exit was ugly, and paved the way for Ford to beat Christine Elliott in a subsequent provincial leadership contest.

Any reference to the hate-hate relationship between Brown and Ford will not help the premier in the key ridings in Brampton. Mississauga and Scarborough where Brown has many supporters who would not likely support the premier in a general election.

As for Quebec, issues within the Tory federal leadership could definitely create some blowback in the provincial campaign. The bill that forced teachers to choose between religious headgear and their jobs has caused quite a stir across the country.

However, it is largely supported in Quebec, so attacks on Bill 21 by national Conservatives will simply reinforce the re-election chances of Premier François Legault.

Charest will have to tread carefully there because he needs to secure his Quebec base, but cannot afford to alienate the rest of the party on a divisive religious issue.

Alberta’s Jason Kenney, already hobbled by a popularity plunge in his home province, has historically tried to play a brokerage role in the federal campaign.

But given he has so many Alberta problems, the usual cadre of candidates lined up to seek his blessing will definitely decrease in this leadership campaign.

Ford is facing the voters on June 2, but 25 per cent of his current caucus has decided not to run again.

The most recent announcement by Christine Elliott, former leadership rival, that she is stepping down, does not augur well for the party’s election chances.

Most seasoned politicians can smell a change in the wind. When they decide not to reoffer, it is because they think their chances of losing are greater than winning.

Of course, they usually cite family or personal reasons for resigning, but in the end, a party on its way out loses more incumbent members than a party in the ascendancy.

Ford’s saving grace at the moment is that the New Democrats and Liberals are in a virtual tie as to who the replacement should be.

That being said, the Liberals have the edge as the NDP polls heavier in certain urban constituencies like Hamilton and Windsor, but it’s presence in rural Ontario is much weaker. That skews the numbers because an equal vote actually means more seats for the Liberals, in the same way that an equal federal Conservative/Liberal vote means more seats for the grits.

By October, we will likely have at least two new premiers in Alberta and Ontario, which also has federal repercussions.

In Ontario’s case, voters like to have political bookends at the federal and provincial scene. So, if the Liberals win the provincial election, it will open more doors for a Tory federal victory in the next election.

In Alberta, it is a Tory/NDP dance, and a provincial win for the New Democrats would provide energy and workers for the next federal election.

The only certainty in Canadian politics this year is change.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.