Pierre Poilievre’s decision to select Andrew Scheer as the interim opposition leader shows that he does not want any competition in the temporary job that he would like to fill permanently following an Alberta byelection.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on June 2, 2025.

OTTAWA—Conservative deputy leader Melissa Lantsman did not look very happy when she rose to applaud her new opposition leader Andrew Scheer last week.

Who can blame her? She has done a lot of the heavy lifting as Pierre Poilievre’s deputy leader. Instead of rewarding her with the opposition leader appointment, he chose a failed former leader.

The decision certainly reinforced the image of the Conservative party as an old boys’ club. The choice is in keeping with the party’s demographic in the House of Commons.

The Tories didn’t even reach 20 per cent mark when it came to the success of women in the election. The 26 women in the caucus represent less than 19 per cent of the total team.

The choice of Lantsman would have sent a message that women play an important role in the party.

Instead, the selection of Scheer shows that Poilievre does not want any competition in the temporary job that he would like to fill permanently following an Alberta byelection.

Scheer has already been replaced as leader in a previous time, so is not likely to present any danger to the status of Poilievre as head honcho.

That status is not so solid as some would have us believe. The Conservative caucus is the only group to vote in favour of a proposed system proposed by MP Michael Chong where a majority of members can kick a leader out without the bother of having to go to a party convention.

In an effort to shore up support, Poilievre named a shadow cabinet that was three times larger than the government cabinet.

In that instance, he also ignored the principle of gender parity that was embraced by Prime Minister Mark Carney in the formation of his new cabinet.

Poilievre’s shadow cabinet includes 21 per cent women in a 74-person roster of official party critics.

A notable star that was not included in the group was Jamil Jivani. Jivani was billed as one of Poilievre’s personal choices when Jivani ran to replace Erin O’Toole in a byelection.

Jivani has previously advised Ontario Premier Doug Ford, and is well-connected to the United States administration via his former university friend, American Vice-President JD Vance.

On the night of the election, Jivani emerged from defeat to attack Ford and blame the Ontario Conservatives for the federal loss.

That didn’t sit well with colleagues who felt that the knives should not be pointed inward.

Jivani’s absence from the 74-person shadow cabinet raised some eyebrows, as did his decision to table a private member’s bill banning all temporary foreign workers from entering Canada.

Jivani has also launched a petition, which could be a tool to identify future leadership supporters.

Chances are that we will be seeing Jivani’s name on a future Conservative leadership ballot.

When Poilievre opted for Scheer instead of Lantsman as Opposition leader in the House, he opened the door to her defection, as well. His caucus now holds his future in their hands.

The process to replace a leader is entitled the Reform Act, and empowers the majority of caucus to remove a leader by a secret-ballot vote.

Each party must vote on whether to employ the act at the beginning of every new Parliament.

The Liberals declined to adopt the process at their caucus meeting last week, preferring to solve challenges in private through internal discussion.

A caucus vote would likely have seen then-prime minister Justin Trudeau leave much sooner than he did, but it also means that the party membership has no say in what happens.

In Britain, the system has led to a leadership revolving door for successive governments.

Poilievre will now be subject to constant internal caucus review. The leader’s survival until the next federal election is not guaranteed.

Meanwhile, Jivani is working hard to build his own political identity.

Lantsman may not follow in Jivani’s footsteps, but she could view Scheer’s appointment as enough of a snub to nurture her own future leadership ambitions.

She has proven her capacity both in the House of Commons, and on the campaign trail.

Poilievre is definitely riding a Conservative popularity wave today, but six months is a lifetime in politics.

Poilievre may not be leading the Conservatives into the next election.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston did not confirm a leadership bid in his CTV interview, but did respond ‘in French’ that he was studying the language, a sure sign of national interest. Two million views of Houston’s video have Conservatives across the country talking.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May 5, 2025.

OTTAWA—”Many shades of blue” is how Nova Scotian Premier Tim Houston characterized Conservatives in an interview with CTV News in the aftermath of last week’s federal election.

Houston said the federal party needs to do some soul-searching after four consecutive losses to the Liberals.

The Progressive Conservative premier also stated that Pierre Poilievre’s team is very good at pushing people away, but not very good at bringing people in.

The premier confirmed details of a Globe and Mail article which stated that senior Poilievre official Jenni Byrne sent multiple texts threatening the premier after he distanced himself from the federal Conservatives during the last provincial election.

Poilievre did not set foot in the province for six months following the spat, but arranged a major rally hosted by Conservatives Peter MacKay and his father, Elmer, in Central Nova during the dying days of the federal campaign.

Houston did not attend the rally. Instead, he concurrently sent out a two-and-a-half-minute video introducing himself to the rest of the country. The pitch was widely seen as the launch of a potential future leadership bid.

Both Peter and Elmer MacKay have long histories in the party as national Progressive Conservative ministers. Peter was the final leader of the Progressive Conservatives. He merged the party with the more right-wing Canadian Alliance. That merger resulted in the elimination of the word “Progressive” in the official party name. It also prompted the departure of high-profile Red Tories like Nova Scotians Scott Brison and Bill Casey to the Liberals.

The split may have been one reason why Conservatives won only one seat there on April 28.

Houston did not confirm a leadership bid in his CTV interview, but did respond “in French” that he was studying the language, a sure sign of national interest.

Two million views of Houston’s video have Conservatives across the country talking.

“To promote Nova Scotia” was the premier’s explanation for releasing his video.

The premier also admitted he did not have a relationship with the Conservative federal leader. That was a surprising admission given Poilievre has been campaigning for the past three years for the top political job in the country. One would think that meeting Conservative premiers would be top of mind for Team Poilievre.

Apparently not: Ontario Premier Doug Ford also revealed that he had not even met with Poilievre in the several years leading up to the campaign.

Internal tensions were obvious when re-elected federal Conservative Member of Parliament Jamil Jivani unloaded on Ford during an interview on CBC the evening of the Tories’ defeat.

Jivani blamed the Ontario premier for sabotaging the Conservatives’ march to victory in the election and attacked the provincial government’s plans for education and health care.

He also insisted that during the provincial election, the federal Conservatives kept their mouths shut, and expected provincial leaders to return the favour.

Jivani was no doubt expressing the view held by many Ontario Conservatives. They did not appreciate public interventions in the middle of the campaign by Kory Teneycke, blaming Poilievre for refusing to pivot from his tax message to address the Canadian fear of Trump’s annexation threats.

Teneycke was Ford’s campaign manager, and when the premier was asked about his comments, Ford doubled down with a confirmation, saying “sometimes, the truth hurts.”

But by airing his grievances on the national news, Jivani simply ensured the animosity would continue. And after Poilievre lost the election and even failed to win his own seat, he doesn’t need surrogates to pick fights with provincial premiers.

Poilievre needs all hands on deck, including public expressions of support from successful provincial premiers.

He gets kudos from Alberta premier Danielle Smith, but her first action after the election was to introduce simplified rules for a provincial referendum on exiting from Canada.

Smith described the timing as coincidental, but that did not ring true. In the middle of the campaign, she and former Reform Party leader Preston Manning both threatened a referendum if the Liberals were to win.

Manning was instrumental in the death of the Progressive Conservative party. Houston and Ford both achieved political success in parties that are still Progressive Conservative.

Houston’s message may fall on deaf ears when it comes to the Poilievre team’s inner circle. The major question is whether the rest of the party is feeling the same pain. Poilievre will have to go into listening mode and should fire campaign manager Byrne.

Otherwise, many shades of blue in the Conservative Party could make that decision for him.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.