Iran’s decision to rain missiles upon Tel Aviv last week will unleash a response that means trouble for the whole world. 

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on October 7, 2024.

OTTAWA—We are commemorating the one-year anniversary of the Hamas slaughter of innocent Israelis this week.

On Oct. 7 of last year, Hamas attacked young people attending a music festival and old people quietly living in their homes with a fury that seems impossible to understand.

But those of us who don’t understand why have only to take a page from the book of Iran’s supreme leader.

He can tell women what to do and what to wear, and what the penalties are for not following his advice.

If you don’t have your head covered in the right way, you can be subjected to physical attacks and imprisonment. In some cases, those attacks have led to death.

In 2022, Mahsa Amini was killed while in custody after being arrested for not properly wearing her head covering.

Penalties can also be levied for sexual relations outside of marriage, including stoning someone to death.

Likewise, if someone is not heterosexual, sexual relations with a same-sex partner is also punishable by death.

Death as punishment for homosexual relations is unique to Iran in the world, although Afghanistan is currently reviewing the application of a similar policy.

There is a reason that hundreds of ex-patriot Iranians around the world were celebrating the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Iran is the chief patron of Hezbollah, and has supported Nasrallah’s leadership for 32 years.

Ex-pats blame Nasrallah and the Iranian government for the oppression that has dampened the spirit of Iranian people for years.

A United Nations fact-finding mission concluded that the Iranian government was responsible for Amini’s death, and accused Iran of committing “crimes against humanity” as the result of a months-long security crackdown that killed more than 500 people, and detained more than 20,000.

The UN report said that Iranian security forces regularly used submachine guns and assault rifles against peaceful demonstrators, and noted a pattern of protesters being “branded” by shooting them in the eye, leading to permanent damage.

Iran’s Supreme Commander Ayatollah Ali Khamenei doesn’t see any problem with his country’s internal situation, although thousands of Iranians may think otherwise.

He has been in power since 1979, the year which marked the end of “westernizing” Iran with the departure of the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

His government’s view of the Middle East is that all problems would be solved if only Israel would disappear. He blames all challenges there on the Israeli attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.

Thousands of Canadian supporters of Palestine have been lobbying non-stop for an end to the war in Gaza in an effort to save thousands of lives, and end the displacement of thousands more.

There are now more than one million Lebanese who are on the move to get away from the fighting, and to find safety for their families.

Most protesters would not want to strengthen Iran’s hand, but they have been silent on surrogates in the region like Hamas and Hezbollah.

Hamas carried out an unprecedented civilian slaughter on Oct. 7, 2023.

Silence doubles as support for Hamas, and one result of the Iranian attack on Israel is that Iran is no longer silently fuelling Israel’s enemies.

Instead, it is leading the charge with its stated intent to eliminate Israel’s existence.

Israel is receiving international support for the right to defend itself against the Iranian incursion.

Its ground invasion of Lebanon has already led to military casualties.

But the incursion into Gaza and the wanton deaths of thousands of civilians have raised the global ire of millions.

To date, most of the pressure has been focused on Israelis to withdraw from Gaza as the only way to secure the release of the hostages who have now been held for a full year.

But now the pressure point will be on Iran. And those in the Arab world who do not support Iran will be called to engage in the fight.

Iran’s decision to rain missiles upon Tel Aviv last week will unleash a response that means trouble for the whole world.

Already one of the outcomes is a rapid hike in the price of oil, which puts the fragile economic recovery under threat.

The hike may help producers, but will put further stress on Canadian consumers.

Meanwhile, the world is waiting with bated breath as we teeter on the edge of a world war.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Justin Trudeau has to do something dramatic to let Canadians know that he really is listening and the capital gains reversal could be it. 

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on July 1, 2024.

OTTAWA—Justin Trudeau should pull a Doug Ford.

Apologize and say his government got it wrong when it announced a hike in the capital gains inclusion rate from 50 per cent to 66.7 per cent for annual gains over $250,000.

Premier Ford reversed his controversial position on selling off greenbelt land by simply apologizing and changing his mind. The political fallout from that reversal was nil.

A flip on the capital gains hike could signal that Trudeau is willing to admit when he is wrong.

The budget announcement was one reason Liberals lost a key byelection in Toronto-St. Paul’s last week. According to a demographic analysis of the riding by Environics, the average household income there is $190,945.30.

That is more than double the average before taxes income of $92,764 for the rest of the country.

An apology would reinforce comments made by the prime minister the day after the shocking loss of a riding that had been held by the Liberals for three decades.

Commenting on the outcome, the prime minister said “I hear people’s concerns. And frustrations.”

Simply repeating that he is working to ameliorate the situation will not be enough.

Inside the caucus, members are quietly grumbling about their leader’s unpopularity, predicting a general election could be disastrous if the party’s numbers are not shored up.

Trudeau has to do something dramatic to let Canadians know that he really is listening and the capital gains reversal could be it.

The issue would not matter in most ridings as ordinary Canadians cannot hope to have an annual capital gain in excess of $250,000.

But for those who do, it was the straw that broke the camel’s back in last week’s vote.

That, and the prime minister’s personal unpopularity, were certainly factors in the surprising defeat. They both coupled with the government’s position on the Israel-Hamas war to create a perfect storm.

The war in the Middle East even had the mayor of a Montreal suburb calling on Toronto voters to repudiate Trudeau. Mayor Jeremy Levi of Hampstead used X (Twitter) to literally “implore” voters in Toronto to vote for Don Stewart and Pierre Poilievre.

The mayor accused Trudeau of lying to all Jewish Canadians about his promise to do something to combat antisemitism. “This is no longer about Jews, but a leader who consistently failed.”

Deputy Conservative leader Melissa Lantsman penned a similar message to constituents in the riding, asking them to send Trudeau “a message about his betrayal of our Jewish community” because of his silence on rise of “Jew hatred” since the beginning of the war.

According to the most recent census, approximately 15 per cent of the riding population is Jewish, but Lantsman refused to say whether the letter was sent selectively to Jewish households.

Couple that with the reality that the Liberal candidate, Leslie Church, well-known in political circles as chief of staff to Chrystia Freeland, was largely unknown in the constituency.

According to some Liberal sources, there were other, popular local candidates who were willing to step up when Carolyn Bennett vacated the seat, she had held for a quarter century.

But they were bypassed for Church, largely at the insistence of deputy prime minister Freeland.

Freeland holds an adjacent riding to that of Toronto-St. Paul’s. In University-Rosedale, the demographics are very similar, and with the shocking loss last week, Freeland must also be wondering about the vulnerability of her own seat.

She campaigned hard for Church, suggesting at a press conference on the day of the vote that the election was about “two visions of Canada, two sets of values.” Freeland said the alternative vision to the Liberal one was “cold, cruel and small” that would lead to cuts.

Freeland’s pitch did not appear to resonate with the local voters.

After the polls closed, Conservative organizer Jenni Byrne made an unusual appearance on CBC to say her candidate had lost the election, when a few hours later it turned out the opposite was true.

At 4:30 a.m., the final ballot put Conservative candidate Don Stewart ahead by almost 600 votes. Church had led the polls through most of the evening, but the numbers in the advance voting prompted the flip.

Liberal insiders knew it would be a tough fight, but they thought the tide was turning in their favour in the last few days.

Caucus successors to Trudeau are already quietly organizing, although most pledge public support for the beleaguered leader.

Something dramatic needs to happen to turn this ship around.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.