The Conservatives have already started their pre-election communications strategy and are well-funded to keep it going. If the government wants to remain in the game, it needs to get in the game.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on December 11, 2023.

OTTAWA—P.T. Barnum once said that there is no such thing as bad publicity.

Oscar Wilde followed suit with this zinger: “There is only one thing worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.”

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre followed Barnum’s advice by vowing to bring in thousands of amendments to legislation until the Liberals change some elements of their pollution pricing strategy.

Poilievre didn’t call it “pollution pricing,” but rather “carbon tax,” which is how most Canadians seem to be viewing the issue.

Government House Leader Karina Gould was quick to repudiate Poilievre’s tactic, accusing him of being a bully, and “not a serious politician.”

She also pointed out that Canadians earning less than $50,000 are actually receiving more in their pockets because carbon pricing includes personal rebates.

Poilievre seems to be winning the ground war, and has not been damaged by his bully tactics on parliamentary bills.

Most Canadians are not watching the machinations of Parliament on a daily basis, but they are feeling the pinch of inflation, and a hike in cost for basics like food and housing.

On the housing front, Poilievre dominated the headlines again, for good or for bad.

He released a 15-minute docudrama on housing which was widely quoted by pundits in both positive and negative news columns.

Globe and Mail columnist Gary Mason called the video “a dime-store analysis of our housing crisis.”

Globe columnist Andrew Coyne, on the contrary, called it, “extremely impressive. Simplistic, tendentious, conspiratorial in places, but by the standards of most political discourse, it is a PhD thesis.”

The video had legs. Within days of its posting, the docudrama had received more than three million views.

That compares with a prime ministerial upload the same day that received fewer than 100,000 views.

Liberal Housing Minister Sean Fraser joked that the Poilievre video got multiple views because of the opposition leader dialling in to watch himself perform.

Anyone can manipulate social media to inflate the number of views.

But the fact that the video occupied so much ink in mainstream media means that Poilievre was getting out his message.

The media and positive polling numbers have emboldened the Conservatives in the House of Commons.

Last week, one member was bounced out of the place for accusing the prime minister of lying on the carbon tax issue.

Alberta MP Damien Kurek ignored repeated invitations from the Speaker to withdraw his comments and was drummed out. Kurek almost immediately posted his exchange from the House on Twitter.

Meanwhile, a journalist for social media Insight has used the incident as a fundraising measure, inviting people who support Kurek to assist by sending money to a media PayPal account.

But this is no ordinary media strategy. Instead, Poilievre and the Conservatives plan to use every social media platform to promote their positions.

On these platforms there is no real rebuttal, so it doesn’t matter much that a number of statements in Poilievre’s housing video were simply false.

To follow the Barnum school of promotion, simply getting out the message on multiple platforms helps reinforce Poilievre’s status.

Screaming matches in the House of Commons are intended to reinforce the Conservative message that the carbon tax needs to be axed.

Liberals have some great talking points to deflate the video, but talking points will not carry this day.

Instead, they need to get serious on social media, attacking the falsehoods that are being perpetrated by Poilievre.

Fraser issued his own video in rebuttal to Poilievre’s housing claims.

But he is a single actor in the parliamentary story. Instead, the government needs to spend as much effort on rebuttals as it does on its own positive announcements.

As long as Canadians are talking about carbon tax and not a price on pollution, it is pretty simple to see who is winning this public relations battle.

But that doesn’t necessarily equate to winning the war.

A hard-hitting rebuttal to the “dime-store” housing analysis needs to come from the Liberals, and it needs to involve social media saturation and paid media messaging.

The Conservatives have already started their pre-election communications strategy, and by all accounts, are well-funded to keep it going.

If the government wants to remain in the game, it needs to get in the game.

Any winning team needs a defensive and an offensive strategy.

By leaving the offence to Poilievre, Liberals look defensive. Only by going into attack mode will they win.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on July 17, 2023.

OTTAWA—According to Albert Einstein, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Someone should tell that to Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. The bank has hiked interest rates 10 times since March of last year.

Instead of cooling the economy, the action simply hits workers harder. The Canadian economy continues to expand, with 60,000 new jobs added last month. Companies continue to face a worker shortage, forcing employers to increase their wage offerings in the hunt for employees. That is not a bad thing.

But hiking interest rates increases costs and depresses wages. Macklem insists his monetary policy is working, but he cannot say whether or not last week’s rate rise will work, calling for patience to see whether the actions succeed in reining in inflation.

Patience may be fine for those managing the money markets, but what about ordinary citizens on the verge of losing their homes because of the hike in interest rates?

The moves are fodder for New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh, who says these interest rate hikes are simply making things worse for workers and businesses. Singh is calling the current situation “greedflation,” and he blames the problem on greedy CEOs who are using the inflationary crisis to make more profit and gouge consumers. He says the government has to take another approach to tackle the current inflationary spiral.

Singh says supply chain issues, the war in Ukraine, and the cost of housing and groceries are responsible. None of these factors will be affected by interest rate increases. Only the pocketbooks of ordinary Canadians are touched.

Singh’s criticisms enjoin the year-long campaign of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who started calling for the firing of the Bank of Canada governor during his run for the party leadership. However, Poilievre’s financial acumen took a hit when he also suggested that Canadians should invest in cryptocurrency because it allows them to escape the inflation being created by the central bank.

Leadership opponent Jean Charest attacked Poilievre’s firing promise, and then Conservative finance critic Ed Fast stepped down from his post, claiming, “I’m deeply troubled by suggestions by one of our leadership candidates that the candidate would be prepared to interfere already at this stage in the independence of our central bank.”

That statement was made more than a year ago, but the continual climb in interest rates has started to create political pressure from both the right and the left. Singh is not calling for Macklem’s resignation, but he is asking for a change in the bank’s conventional approach to fighting inflation.

With complaints from both sides, the government is going to face some real pressure to pivot financially. Liberals can’t afford to fight inflation and an election. However, the fact that the Federal Reserve in the United States is expected to raise rates slightly at the end of the month could blunt criticism of the Canadian situation.

At the end of the day, ordinary Canadians are feeling the pinch at the grocery store and in the housing market. The cost of rental accommodation is skyrocketing across the country, and the path to home ownership for many is blocked by the high cost of mortgages.

Macklem is not the only central bank governor using interest rates as a blunt instrument, and if there is another route, it must be determined by the government, not the bank governor.

With grocery profits in the eye of the storm while prices seem to increase weekly, more needs to be done in that area. The recent price-fixing decision of the Competition Bureau, issuing a $50-million fine against Canada Bread, was a good first step.

But that money should go back to those Canadians who paid excessive prices for years.

Likewise, the bureau can do more, including speeding up the length and breadth of its investigations into price-gouging. The bread investigation took seven years and involved immunity to Loblaw Companies for revealing its part in the scheme. On average, the Competition Bureau found that Canadians paid $1.50 extra for bread products for the past eight years because of the collusion.

There are undoubtedly other food groups and other consumer items that face a similar lack of competition because of price-fixing. A move to strengthen the budget and investigative strength of the Competition Bureau would be a good place to start.

Firing the bank governor is not the answer. But doing something to stop price gouging would be a good start.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

For the moment, Pierre Poilievre does not need to offer any solutions. But simply playing the role of the grumpy old man will not likely attract new supporters to his effort. A winner is always positive.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on November 14, 2022.

OTTAWA—Groundhog Day for Pierre Poilievre was not a happy one.

After several weeks in a news hole, Poilievre finally decided to come out of his hiding place and held a presser in Vancouver.

Of course, it would not be in Ottawa.

Any journalism student 101 knows that when leaders get off the Hill, questions are softer and more friendly than what they can expect with the national press gallery.

So, there weren’t too many tough questions about why Poilievre went into hiding immediately after securing his leadership in a romp.

But his message seemed strangely like the one which secured him the leadership.

The country is in a mess and only he can fix it.

“It feels like everything is broken in this country right now.”

Poilievre even blamed a “300 per cent increase in opioid use in Vancouver” on the prime minister.

When criticized for lack of media availability, Poilievre became combative. He accused a Radio-Canada journalist of getting his facts wrong when the reporter said Poilievre had not had a press conference in 60 days.

He decried the claim that he did not want to meet with the media and expressed interest in speaking to reporters across the country.

But he had no time for those on Parliament Hill whom he accused of trying to control the message.

It is obvious that Poilievre is not in love with the media. It is also obvious that he thinks by limiting access to reporters in Ottawa, he will be able to shape a more positive message across the country.

But the negative messaging at his first major presser was a bad start.

By assuming everything in Canada is broken, Poilievre will certainly secure the support of those Canadians who helped his rise to power.

He continues to defend the illegal Freedom Convoy and believes that under the current government, nothing in Canada is working very well.

In order to broaden his brand, Poilievre needs to reach out to people who still believe there is something good about the country.

Most Canadians are feeling the pain of inflation. But they also do not live in a vacuum and realize that the inflationary pressures they are experiencing are being felt around the world.

In last week’s American congressional and gubernatorial races, inflation was top of mind with almost all voters, according to exit polls in multiple states.

It even beat out the question of abortion where state referendums resoundingly reaffirmed the right for women to decide whether or not they carry a fetus to term.

But even with the pocketbook issue of inflation dogging almost every state race, the Republicans were not able to make the major gains that had been predicted.

Instead, U.S. President Joe Biden surprised everyone by beating all his predecessors on midterm numbers.

That tells me that voters do not always blame a global problem on a national leader.

The same could hold true for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the inflationary situation that the country is facing.

Poilievre is obviously banking on the fact that inflation will be seen as a national problem.

He was the first to raise the issue, even when it appeared to be a temporary problem, and he has even paraphrased Trudeau’s moniker to include Justinflation.

That turn of phrase seeks to link the prime minister and the government with the problem of inflation.

But if it is deemed to be worldwide, and the country’s job numbers continue to flourish, the Liberals may be able to dodge the bullet.

Poilievre doesn’t think so. But he also needs to be careful that his appeal to the negative side of the human spirit may not set him up for the job of prime minister.

Trudeau came into office in 2015 promising sunny ways. Some may rightfully argue that those sunny ways have not fully materialized. In the current economic uncertainty, it looks like the country could soon be raining recession.

Poilievre has decided to paint a grim picture, with the promise that his proposed government cuts will make things better.

However, as he gets closer to the actual election, he will have to clarify what he intends to cut.

With low-cost childcare and accessible dental plans, a cut to either of those programs might not help his electability.

For the moment, he does not need to offer any solutions. But simply playing the role of the grumpy old man will not likely attract new supporters to his effort.

A winner is always positive.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Time to move on from COVID.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on January 24, 2022.

The return of Parliament should provide a much-anticipated channel-changer from the constant barrage of COVID news that still saturates the airwaves.

Most people I know have simply tuned out to the daily update of hospitalization and infection information from every part of the country.

They are also taking the medical advice with a grain of salt. Travel advisories emanating from Ottawa are being discounted even by federal government service providers. Last year, the majority of snowbirds heeded the government’s advice to stay home and refrained from travelling because of the danger of contracting COVID.

This year, those same people have decided to ignore the repeated warnings and are heading to warmer climes to avoid the bitterly cold Canadian winters.

Even the federal government pensioners’ payment website has a general proviso that the travel prohibitions emanating from Ottawa have no affect on their insurance policies or plans.

Likewise, the travel industry is starting to fight back publicly.

Last week, the major airlines and Canada’s largest airport joined to urge the government to end the redundant random PCR testing that faces some travellers upon their return to Canada. They pointed out that the infection rate on planes hovers around two per cent and every single passenger has already undergone a PCR test to get on a plane so it makes no sense to undergo a second test on landing when tests are so scarce and the local infection rate stands at 20 per cent.

Infected residents cannot access tests because of a shortage while travellers are double-tested in an effort to discourage their movement.

The opening of the House of Commons will focus public attention on issues other than the pandemic, with inflation rearing its ugly head just in time for the return.

Statistics Canada inflation numbers published last week painted a grim picture with calculations showing the highest levels of inflation in three decades.

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole immediately tweeted out the negative results, claiming the Liberals are showing zero leadership on tackling the cost-of-living crisis.

O’Toole did not provide any specific suggestions himself, nor did he walk back his finance critic’s claim three days earlier that the cost-of-living figures were “vastly underestimated” in the methodology applied by Statistics Canada to the role played by inflation in the Consumer Price Index data.

Poilievre is great on grabbing the headlines, but the claim that Statistics Canada is cooking the books does not resonate well when his leader is about to launch a national campaign based on the very numbers the critic is questioning.

The chance for the Conservatives to make their mark on the inflation issue should not be muddied because their critic questions the veracity of Statistics Canada.

That kind of dog-whistle politics may serve Tories well in their fundraising endeavours, but it does little to prove to Canadians that they are really ready to govern the country.

To be that government-in-waiting they need to consider the big picture. Just like inflation could be a looming issue in this parliament, the Tories will want to make an example out of cultural policy when the government reintroduces legislation to amend the Broadcasting Act.

But by taking a hard line against new rules that put streaming services like Netflix on a more level playing field with traditional broadcasters, the Conservatives risk being viewed as a marginalized fringe party.

The Liberal legislation that passed a previous House of Commons vote was supported by the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois so the Tories’ support is not required for passage.

The new minister of Canadian Heritage, Pablo Rodriguez, has also been in the portfolio before and has the kind of political savvy that will make him a real champion for the legislation.

He will not get sucked down the rabbit hole of responding to social media influencers who think their blogs are the equivalent of major streaming services.

If the Tories have any hope of forming the government, they have to be able to broaden their reach in Quebec. And by fighting against C-10, they simply manage to reinforce their image as a right-wing, anti-culture party that really does not care about Canadian content, on traditional media or via the internet.

They have a small rump of ten members of parliament in Quebec. Perhaps those members will be able to convince their colleagues that a more moderated approach to broadcasting amendments will serve their long-term political agenda.

The return of the House will be a welcome channel changer. Time to move on from COVID.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

In the end, the only party that really ended up ahead at year’s end is the Bloc. But this party also has the benefit of never having to be held accountable for what it might do in government as it vows never to form government.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on December 20, 2021.

OTTAWA—As the year draws to a close, it is time to reflect on politics past and future.

In the past year, the governing Liberals limped out of an election, barely making any inroads into their dream of a governing majority.

In the past year, the newly-minted Conservative leader dreamed that this was his party’s time to form government. He opened with a slick campaign brochure that promised change, but everything cratered during the campaign.

In the past year, the New Democratic Party leader was crowned by young people as the king of TikTok. But in the end, his clock ran out as too many followers simply did not turn out to vote.

In the past year, the Green Party leader went from breaking through a glass ceiling only to be covered in shards as her party imploded in internal infighting.

In the past year, the Bloc leader went from being almost forgotten in the House of Commons to reinserting himself in the public domain with a strong election effort.

In the end, the only party that really ended up ahead at year’s end is the Bloc. But this party also has the benefit of never having to be held accountable for what it might do in government as it vows never to form government.

So the new year offers opportunity for all political parties. In the case of the government, being in command of a progressive agenda will heal a lot of the wounds caused by an aborted attempt at a majority.

The childcare agreements with almost every provincial and territorial government are a great place to start. In addition, the all-party decision to move ahead with a ban on conversion therapy, showed that parties can accomplish much when they work together.

Continued management of the COVID situation will dominate politics for everyone in the new year, but if the government manages the Omicron threat well, the Liberals will be the greatest beneficiary of public support.

As for the Conservatives, the first step in the right direction was the unanimous support for the anti- conversion bill. The new year will provide opportunities for Erin O’Toole to continue to make movement toward the moderate middle. The only thing holding him back is the right-wing pull in his own party. And with an 18-month review process roiling inside the party, his freedom as a leader is certainly curtailed.

His party also needs to moderate its image as a collection of angry, white men. The finance critic, Pierre Poilievre, while a wonderful wordsmith, simply creates the impression that his work is being done for Bay Street and not for Main Street. While Poilievre is anxious to tag Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland as the inflation minister, most Canadians still don’t think the moniker fits.

As there is inflationary pressure worldwide, it is pretty hard to hang that problem on a single minister in a single government. Poilievre is no doubt banking on the fact that growing inflationary pressures will become a potent political tool for the Tories. That remains to be seen, but in the meantime, his overheated rhetoric could not pass a reality test.

In the new year, the New Democrats need to flex their muscles in Parliament to ensure that any legislation gets their seal of approval. Otherwise they risk being eclipsed by the government in the field of progressive politics. They also need to start spreading the news about their team. The current messaging is so fixated on the leader that it is hard for anyone to recognize the bench strength in Jagmeet Singh’s party. He has some excellent performers who need to take centre stage in the battle for the hearts and minds of Canadians.

In the new year, the Green Party needs to go back to the future, with emphasis on its roots and why the party was created in the first place. Internecine warfare based on Middle East politics is not going to win the party any support. And with a swathe of doctorates around the political table, one has to wonder who is able to guide the party back to a winning path.

With an unexpected breakthrough in Ontario, when Kitchener Centre sent Mike Morrice to Parliament, there is an opportunity to rebuild the party from scratch. Their interim leader, nonbinary astrophysicist Amita Kuttner certainly has her work cut out for her.

As we sweep out the old to ring in the new, all parties have a chance to right their respective ships. Happy Holidays.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.