By SHEILA COPPS

First published on Monday, May 22, 2017 in The Hill Times.

OTTAWA—Like it or not, we are back in the free trade debate.

But chances are, it won’t be as divisive as the one we experienced in the election of 1988.

This time, there will be a fair bit of unanimity around the big issues. But be prepared for a few Canadian sacred cows to be sacrificed in the process. When I speak of sacred cows, I am of course not referring to the beasts themselves, but rather what they produce.

U.S. President Donald Trump has his sights squarely set on the abolition of the supply-managed Canadian dairy system.

Trump believes that Wisconsin carried him to the White House, and in so doing, it brokered a favour and secured a champion to open northern borders to state milk.

Canada can trot out all the data it wants to prove that the United States is getting as good as it gives in the North American Free Trade Agreement. The figures prove it.

But in the alternative Trump truth, what matters is politics. And he has supply management in his crosshairs.

It is also true that support for this unique made-in-Canada solution to dairy productions has been facing mixed reviews at home for years.
 
The latest politician to line up against the dairy farmers is none other that the likely future leader of the Conservative Party, Beauce Member of Parliament Maxime Bernier.

The strongest political support for the existing system comes from Quebec, but the loudest voice to kill it belongs to Bernier.

Ontario dairy farmers are not as vocal but they are equally political, with strong lobbying efforts in Ottawa, and direct contact with every Member of Parliament in rural Canada.

Those members punch above their weight. But given the vocal opposition of Bernier, if the government is forced to sacrifice supply management, it will be less politically damaging.
 
Most Canadians are too young to remember when supply management was introduced into Parliament. The system was the brainchild of a former minister in the Pierre Trudeau government, colourful Windsor-area Eugene Whelan, whose signature green Stetson was recognizable across the country.

Whelan left politics after an unsuccessful run against John Turner for the Liberal leadership back in 1984.

But his unique contribution remains to this day, and the beauty of the system is that the government offers no direct subsidies but, instead, controls the supply of milk to secure better financial yields for farmers.

The unique process drives most economists crazy and opponents often cite the high cost of Canadian milk to justify eliminating the tool in every international trade negotiation.

It survived several rounds of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) negotiation, it survived the Free Trade Agreement and its’ successor NAFTA. It survived the Trans Pacific Partnership, despite fierce opposition from dairy-rich New Zealand. It even survived the recent Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) signed with the European Union.

But it may not survive Trump’s bombast. Dairy farmers and their cooperatives have been preparing for the end for years. They have been economically savvy in developing and marketing their own value-added milk products, through companies like Agropur, which is tapping into the burgeoning yoghurt market, and producing other dairy-based foods.

If the Canadian government is forced to put supply management on the chopping block, the blow could be softened with some value-added transformation financing, like that offered to the grape growers during the first round of bilateral trade agreements almost 30 years ago.

The reopening of NAFTA may offer opportunities in other sectors.

With the United States facing a world backlash based on some of Trump’s protectionist, wall-building pronouncements, Canada can actually become a stronger North American business hub.

In the growing fin-tech, creative and service sectors, our country could pick up where the United States is leaving off.

Certainly, Trump’s diminishing political capital in Washington may blunt his negotiating force.

As we saw during the recent British Columbia election, Canada has a few weapons of our own, when it comes to Canada-United States trade disputes.

Any border blockage of resource-rich materials actually wreaks havoc with manufacturing facilities down south that are dependent on raw product for transformation.

The reality for both countries is that a seamless North American border is a sine quae non to confront the onslaught of Asia-Pacific competition. From China to India, the world economic poles of influence are changing. Like it or not, Europe and North America are no longer privileged players.

America needs seamless northern borders as much as we do.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By SHEILA COPPS

First published in The Hill Times on Monday, February 20, 2017.

OTTAWA—It was Canada’s hour in the European Parliament last week.

Even those parties who voted against the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement were compelled to proclaim their affection for our country with hand-held signs that said, “Yes to Canada. No to CETA.”

In the end, the vote was not even close, even though parties on the left and the right were opposed.

Some 58 per cent of European parliamentarians endorsed the deal, which sets the stage for speedy implementation.

In one sense, Prime Minster Justin Trudeau has U.S. President Donald Trump to thank for the solid show of support.

Since the new American president’s inauguration a month ago, the United States administration has been systemically threatening to close borders, round up refugees and cancel international commercial agreements.

Even though American courts have slowed down some of the initiatives, the obvious message of closed America borders has not been lost on the rest of the world.

Contrary to the core group of Trump supporters, most other jurisdictions feel alienated and confused by the administration’s early direction.

European support for the free trade deal with Canada actually grew because the agreement became synonymous with an anti-Trump approach. One European parliamentarian, Artis Pabriks from the European People’s Party made an oblique reference to the plan to wall off Mexico. “Together we can build bridges, instead of a wall, for the prosperity of our citizens. CETA will be a lighthouse for future trade deals all over the world.”

While Trump vows to close borders and keep foreigners out, the Canadian prime minister is welcoming refugees and signing trade deals with Europe and beyond.

Perhaps the ongoing chaos in Washington could actually work in Canada’s favour.

Justin Trudeau’s meeting with the president appeared to establish a good working relationship, while underscoring different perspectives on the Syrian refugee crisis. Trudeau was able to make his point, without making an enemy, and by all accounts last week’s White House visit was a success.

It should have been the launch of what could have been a very good week for Trump.

In less than seven days, he welcomed three world leaders and reinforced his close personal friendship with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom Trump addressed with the familiar nickname, Bibi.

Instead, the president was dodging questions about the alleged ongoing relationship between several members of his campaign team and senior officials in the Russian government.

By mid-week, one cabinet member had been fired, and another nominee, facing a rough confirmation ride, decided to voluntarily withdraw himself from contention as the secretary of labor.

Trump’s press secretary repeatedly made it clear that the boss had lost confidence in National Security adviser Michael Flynn after Flynn misled vice-president Mike Pence as to the nature of his pre-inauguration discussions with the Russian ambassador.

After cutting Flynn loose, Trump then blamed the whole mess on the media and leaks from the intelligence community. “I think he’s been treated very, very unfairly by the media—as I call it, the fake media, in many cases,” Trump proclaimed, the day after he dumped his friend.

It is normal for a new administration in any country to experience a few hiccups in the early days.

But the almost daily circus in Washington is beyond anything most reporters and political watchers have ever observed.

That is tough for Trump. But it also means that neighbouring countries like Canada could benefit from the renewed world interest in our similarities and differences.

An open border policy makes Canada a welcoming place for refugees. It also means international businesses can consider investing and locating in Canada, while keeping close to the American market.

We are within driving distance of the 325 million consumers who are fuelling America’s prosperity and we still benefit from relatively open borders with the Untied States.

Our links of geography and history make us fast friends and good neighbours. At a time when the United States seems likely to build more walls, Canada could position itself as the ideal way-station into North America.

Last week’s CETA deal certainly sounded an optimistic note for more trade between Canada and roughly 500 million Europeans.

It also tempered negative fallout from the decision by the United Kingdom to exit the European Union.

The agreement sent a resounding message that not all countries around the world are closing their borders.

And while the Israeli prime minister was in Washington praising up Trump on the art of the deal, Trudeau was actually getting a bigger deal done.

 
Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era Cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.