The Governor General’s appointment, while generally time-limited, is always ‘at pleasure,’ which means the office-holder can be let go at any time. After Julie Payette stepped aside, the prime minister quickly replaced her with acting Governor General in the person of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Canada Richard Wagner.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on January 25, 2021.

OTTAWA—To sack or not to sack, that is the question.

Three current cases, two federal and one provincial, give us some insight into differing approaches to a firing offence.

Derek Sloan tossed

Conservative Member of Parliament Derek Sloan was tossed out by a majority vote of caucus, allegedly for accepting a donation from a white supremacist.

His toxic party status was pretty clear. Sloan has been a negative distraction to the Conservatives since his leadership bid against Erin O’Toole. O’Toole should have dumped him earlier following his racist attack on Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam, because of her Chinese roots.

Instead, according to Sloan, O’Toole defended him vigorously in front of the caucus. Sloan also claims that O’Toole won the leadership because of the second-choice support of the Sloan followers.

Sloan is gone but has encouraged his followers to remain in the party and continue to influence their policy processes.

That could spell ongoing trouble for national Conservatives as they try to reposition themselves in the moderate middle to build electoral appeal.

A party that includes membership by anti-gay, anti-choice, and pro-conversion therapy supporters will not pass muster with the Canadian public.

While the departure of Sloan has helped to close the door on social conservatives, they still have an in-house leader in the person of Leslyn Lewis, a star Tory candidate whose social views mirror those of Sloan.

Governor General Julie Payette stepped down

The second federal departure is that of Governor General Julie Payette. After reviewing an independent report on allegations of bullying by Payette and her secretary Assunta Di Lorenzo, the Privy Council concluded the claims of a toxic work environment were true.

Faced with irrefutable evidence of harassment, Payette moved quickly to step down. That was the right thing to do.

Otherwise, the government would have had no choice but to dismiss the Queen’s representative in Canada. And the Queen would not have had to personally approve any firing.

The Governor General’s appointment, while generally time-limited, is always “at pleasure,” which means the office-holder can be let go at any time. After Payette stepped aside, the prime minister quickly replaced her with acting Governor General in the person of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Canada Richard Wagner.

Multiple news reports underscored the message that the governor-general’s alleged history of staff maltreatment was an issue in previous work environments. She departed hastily with a large severance from the Montreal Science Centre following similar allegations and left the Canadian Olympic Committee under a cloud.

Throughout the Rideau Hall investigation, the prime minister mounted a vigorous defence of his appointee. However, he had no choice but to sack her, based on the devastating report findings leaked to the media last week.

Ontario’s MPP Roman Baber dismissed

On the firing front, a third dismissal took place last week when Ontario Premier Doug Ford fired MPP Roman Baber for publishing an open letter characterizing the provincial lockdown as “deadlier than COVID.”

Baber has also been told that he cannot run for the Conservatives in the next election.

There is no doubt that Baber should have aired his grievance internally. His statement was a direct attack on the government’s use of the lockdown as a tool to limit the spread of COVID.

But this firing may actually do more harm than good by providing fuel for those who believe the current full lockdown is unsupported by science.

After Baber’s dismissal, a former Ontario chief medical officer of health penned a similar public letter, claiming “lockdown was never part of our planned pandemic response nor is it supported by strong science.”

Dr. Richard Schabas, who held the post for a decade, was also chief of staff at York Central Hospital during the SARS crisis.

He addressed the specifics of the Baber claim and also alleged that the modelling used to support the lockdown is misguided.

Schabas is not the only voice to claim the current approach is ineffective. Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson, who usually goes out of his way to support provincial initiatives, publicly questioned the decision to include his city in the lockdown, even though its daily COVID numbers were in the single digits.

Ford is between a rock and a hard place. He is following medical advice. But not all medical advice is based on science, especially counsel on this new and emerging virus.

Had Ford simply noted his colleague’s objection and supported caucus free speech, he probably would not have provoked the public backlash caused by the firing.

Instead, this dismissal gave oxygen to the growing anti-lockdown movement.

A decision not to sack might have been smarter.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

In a minority situation, an election can happen at any time if parties clash on spending priorities. But these are not ordinary times. In the middle of a pandemic, even getting to the polls is complicated.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 28, 2020.

OTTAWA—The election cat and mouse games begin.

In a minority situation, an election can happen at any time if parties clash on spending priorities.

But these are not ordinary times. In the middle of a pandemic, even getting to the polls is complicated.

The British Columbia government just called an Oct. 24 election. Hours after the call, it was revealed that voting results could take weeks to tabulate.

Because of the second wave of the pandemic, many people are limiting their movement amongst larger crowds.

Within hours of the election call, 20,000 requests for mail-in ballots had been sent to Elections BC.

According to officials, they expect a mail-in participation of up to 40 per cent, which means 800,000 ballots, compared to only 6,500 people in the 2017 campaign.

Election law says that absentee ballots cannot be tallied until the final results of the polls are counted, and that could be up to 13 days after the vote.

Given Canada Post’s COVID-based backlog as more people shop via the internet, the arrival of that many ballots could clog up the system for up to three weeks.

British Columbia Premier John Horgan called the snap election a year sooner than the end of his mandate, but his announcement came as no surprise. He and his team have been busy rolling out pre-election promises for weeks.

The early call is a gamble for Horgan, but he is also banking on the pandemic bounce that has been felt by leaders across the country.

New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs recently launched a similar quick COVID call two years into his minority mandate and was rewarded with a comfortable majority.

Popularity numbers for Ontario Premier Doug Ford and François Legault have also risen during the pandemic.

Even though both provinces are plagued by high levels of contagion and an increasing concern with the arrival of the second wave, the electorate has been happy with their work.

Voters are also witnessing unprecedented federal-provincial harmony which provides a peaceful backdrop in a world pandemic that could easily morph into panic.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is not oblivious to the crisis bump.

When the Corona virus impact appeared to be waning, the summer was replete with scandal stories like the one that caused WE Canada to shutter its operations.

But with the return of kids to classrooms, and more people back at the workplace and larger social gatherings, the predicted second wave is upon us.

The prime minister’s televised national address was designed to promote calm but also encourage Canadians to stay the course with limited social contacts and self-distancing.

He has also set out a plan designed to put the Liberals on a collision course with all opposition parties.

On the left, New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh is doing his best to put his party’s stamp on promised items like national pharmacare and childcare.

But the Liberals are crowding their space with the intention of securing support from voters who might swing between both parties.

On the right, Erin O’Toole is going to have to refrain from coming away from the Throne Speech as Mr. No. His focus on the deficit and spending may sit well on Bay Street but it does not comfort Main Street Canadians who are losing jobs, homes and life savings because of the financial havoc wreaked by the pandemic.

Then there is the Bloc Québécois. Trudeau’s promise to introduce national standards for long-term care facilities, a direct result of the deaths of thousands of innocent seniors, has raised the hackles of the premier and the nationalists in the province.

They claim that Ottawa should merely increase health budgets and that will solve all the problems.

However, the image of the premier calling in Canadian soldiers to clean up the mess in multiple facilities was not lost on the ordinary Quebecer.

Long-term care is solely the provincial jurisdiction, but it is obvious that the basic rule of protecting the health of citizens and workers was sadly ignored in multiple institutions in more than one province.

Canadians are wise enough to know that it makes sense to work on a national plan in a pandemic that has already killed almost 10,000 people. There is a public interest argument that trumps federal-provincial fights.

Trudeau is itching to test his vision in a federal election, but he risks a backlash if the Liberals are seen to provoke it.

However, Liberals would be happy if an opposition party pulls the plug,

Meanwhile the political war games are on.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Fiscal conservatism may be a Tory badge of honour, but Erin O’Toole’s challenge is to reach Canadians in the moderate middle.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 7, 2020.

OTTAWA—You never get a second chance to make a first impression. Erin O’Toole should have remembered that last week.

O’Toole has won the Conservative leadership. It is now his job to win the country. The decision to attack the Canada Emergency Response Benefit was downright dumb. It cast O’Toole in the image of a born-again tight Tory.

“Tory times are tough times” is a refrain that has haunted the party since forever. Fiscal conservatism may be a Tory badge of honour, but the O’Toole challenge is to reach beyond those members.

Most Canadians find themselves in the moderate middle. The current government has seen its popularity grow because of a robust financial response to an unprecedented pandemic. But in his first post-convention interview, O’Toole attacked the CERB, saying it undermined the employer wage subsidy program set up at the same time.

The amount of money paid out to unemployed Canadians was only $500 a week, but O’Toole felt it undermined employers who might have otherwise wanted to keep their employees on.

That interview reinforced the impression that the Conservative leader will be there for the money guys but not for ordinary citizens. How could he possibly attack a $500 a week payment that literally kept food on the table in millions of Canadian households during an unprecedented world pandemic?

The program was not perfect. But it was delivered in a timely fashion to a desperate nation.

The government is now considering a Guaranteed Annual Income to replace the panoply of support programs that currently litter the national and provincial landscapes. The conversation on a guaranteed income has been circulating in social policy circles for decades, but it took a real-life crisis to thrust the government into a temporary guaranteed income.

And It worked. With millions of Canadians applying for the benefit, computers did not crash, and benefits were distributed broadly and quickly. Why O’Toole would choose to attack that program in his first media interview demonstrates a clear lack of political antennae.

Much was written about his surprising victory against veteran Peter MacKay and many ascribed his win to political acumen. He certainly had the acumen to attract social Conservatives in his party, but that does not necessarily translate into a capacity to resonate with the general public.

His second move last week was the appointment of social conservative Candice Bergen as deputy leader. The photogenic Manitoba member was specifically tasked with tackling the issue of western alienation.

Bergen also happens to hail from the part of the party that he has to distance himself from if he has any intention of becoming prime minister. According to Campaign Life Coalition “Candice has a perfect voting record in the House of Commons on life & family issues.” That is code for the fact that every time she has had a chance to vote on abortion and gay rights issues, she has turned them down.

Notwithstanding her voting record, Bergen has spoken positively about LGBTQ rights, suggesting that she celebrates homosexuality, pansexuality and transgenderism. So, her viewpoint has been muddied by realpolitik. But the next Tory convention will undoubtedly face a push to approve the re-criminalization of abortion. And where will Bergen be on that issue?

Bergen’s appointment was also introduced as a way to reach out on the issue of Western alienation. With a former Tory Member of Parliament now running the Wexit Canada party, the Conservatives must guard their right flank. But the only way they can become government is by broadening their reach across the country.

O’Toole may have won the majority of Quebec votes in the leadership but his main opponent, Peter MacKay, had the support of most of the Members of Parliament.

That was because the social conservatism wave that rode O’Toole to victory is a non-starter in la belle province. O’Toole was smart enough to downplay his right-wing roots during the French debate. That was obviously enough to assuage his Quebec supporters. But an opening week focused on Western alienation and opposition to emergency COVID assistance is hardly a compelling appeal to Quebecers.

O’Toole’s mistakes were hardly fatal, but they do impart a flavour of just what kind of advice he must be getting. A Conservative spokesperson said he had incorporated some players from the MacKay team amongst his senior advisors. But he may not have been open to their advice. The “stinking albatross” comment may have cost MacKay his party’s leadership.

But the albatross in the O’Toole room is not going away any time soon.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Kamala Harris and Joe Biden will be an unbeatable ticket in the United States as Donald Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic has caused him continued erosion within his own party.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on August 17, 2020.

OTTAWA—Leaders came and went last week.

And the coming was so much better than the going.

Kamala Harris was revealed as the vice-presidential choice of Democratic White House nominee Joe Biden.

She ticked all the boxes. With a family tree straddling three continents, she can literally classify as an Afro-Asian American. She has political experience at the local, state and national levels and she represents the generational change that the American presidential race desperately needs.

The same day she joined the American ticket, Andrew Scheer spent his last day in Parliament as the leader of the Conservative Party.

And, oh, what a bitter exit it was. His final public statement was to challenge the prime minister to sue him, a reference to the heated campaign rhetoric when leaders were calling each other liars.

Scheer presented a rather sorry picture of a political leader who was wanted neither by his party nor his country.

It was a disappointing finale for a politician whose star seemed to shine brightly throughout his career.

An eastern-born westerner with a good command of French, he was the natural choice for House Speaker during the 10-year tenure of prime minister Stephen Harper.

The position came with its own set of perks, a house and a private apartment in Parliament. It also gave him a hospitality budget to wine and dine his fellow parliamentarians, preparing the way for his ascendance to the Conservative leadership.

All the while, Scheer was nurturing his brand as a smiling, softer Tory who managed to make friends on all sides of the House.

It wasn’t until he actually grasped the brass ring that we began to see the seedier side of Scheer.

His exit speech last week solidified that impression. Instead of using his time in Parliament to reflect on some of the positive things he was able to accomplish, the outgoing leader sounded like he was still on the election campaign. Painfully vitriolic was the tone of his final speech in Parliament, a far cry from the smiling young man who took his place as the youngest House Speaker in the history of Canadian politics.

Why would Scheer not follow in the footsteps of other outgoing leaders, with a gracious statement that unites people instead of dividing them?

It is to be expected that your first days in power are your best.

So, it is not surprising that Harris’ week in the news was a far cry from Scheer’s snarling exit.

She immediately hit the campaign trail with Biden and showed exactly why she was the perfect choice to be his running mate.

Donald Trump weighed in immediately, pointing out one of Harris’s few flaws; she did not do very well in the presidential runoff against Biden.

Trump hit the tweet scene to trash her. As one American commentator noted, the president seems to glean special pleasure when he gets a chance to trash-talk women, particularly women of colour.

But as others pointed out, Biden’s decision to embrace a former opponent also illustrates the glaring difference between the two presidential hopefuls.

Trump pushes every opponent away, even when they are public servants dishing up the advice that he appointed them to provide.

Just look at his relationship with Anthony Fauci.

Fauci speaks truth to power and Trump simply cannot abide someone who disputes his claim that drinking bleach can help clean out COVID-19.

Harris can expect some negative pushback from Trump supporters in the media, but they are becoming fewer and farther between.

Her selection will motivate women, uplift minorities and inspire a younger generation, all decisive players in the presidential election in November.

As for Scheer, his replacement will be voted on shortly and announced as soon as the complexities of the mail-in balloting system are conquered.

If it is Peter MacKay, you can expect Scheer’s standing in his party to diminish even further.

MacKay’s success will be dependent upon distancing himself from the Rebel right, and that was the crowd that Scheer cultivated so successfully to gain power.

If Erin O’Toole wins, Scheer will still enjoy a place of honour in a party with well-entrenched Western Canadian roots.

Meanwhile, Harris and Biden will be an unbeatable ticket in the United States as Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic has caused him continued erosion within his own party.

If the launch was any indication, Harris will be a positive force for Biden.

The same cannot be said of the outgoing Conservative leader.

He left Parliament with a bitter taste in his mouth.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Erin O’Toole’s fundraising in the second quarter was $1.24-million with Peter MacKay’s raising $1.16-million. The difference is not that great, but the momentum shift definitely favours O’Toole. The Conservative voting system also lends itself to surprises.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on August 10, 2020.

OTTAWA—In two shorts weeks, the Conservative Party of Canada will vote for a new leader.

If the recent uptick in fundraising numbers holds for Erin O’Toole, the race momentum appears to be shifting.

Internal and public polling put veteran Peter MacKay far ahead of the rest of the pack in terms of party and national support.

The race has been MacKay’s to lose. But like Donald Trump, MacKay has faced a few COVID-caused problems beyond his control.

The front-runner spot in any political race is a double-edged sword. People like to support a winner but if you are too far ahead, you become the lightning rod for all disgruntled party members.

If MacKay is too strong, all other leadership hopefuls will band together to blunt his momentum.

The unforeseen lockdown prompted by the coronavirus forced the party to suspend campaigning and delay the proposed vote by three months.

That spawned more all-candidate discussions, boycotted by MacKay. He attended the two official party debates, both held in Toronto, but declined a debate in Vancouver and another Toronto debate.

He also refused to attend a town hall organized by the Independent Press Gallery of Canada; an organization founded to counter the influence of what it characterizes as “the government-influenced Parliamentary Press Gallery.”

It is common for the front-runner to minimize debate appearances because the format tends to focus everyone’s attack on the leader.

His refusal to attend the Vancouver debate was spun as a spurning of the West.

O’Toole’s strength is certainly more western-centric, with the endorsement of Alberta Premier Jason Kenney bringing a broad swathe of elected officials into the O’Toole corner.

The delay appears to have worked slightly in favour of O’Toole, who raised the most money in the last quarter, and also spread the donations amongst a greater number of supporters than the MacKay fundraising efforts.

The candidate with the broadest range of donors is social conservative and Toronto lawyer Leslyn Lewis. She doubled her quarterly financial haul, increasing donations from $448,000 to $996,000.

Lewis also attracted the most individual donors this quarter with 10,000 contributors, compared to 8,900 for O’Toole and 6,800 for MacKay.

O’Toole fundraising in the second quarter was $1.24-million with MacKay raising $1.16-million.

The difference is not that great, but the momentum shift definitely favours O’Toole.

The Conservative voting system also lends itself to surprises.

The party votes on a points system by riding. With 100 points attached to each riding, divided amongst candidates, a constituency with 10 members has equal voting power to a constituency with 1,000 members.

That means a front-runner in the national popular vote does not necessarily win the election.

We witnessed that phenomenon when future Ontario Premier Doug Ford beat the front-runner in a race that was supposed to be Christine Elliot’s to lose.

Her team was so sure she had the upper hand that they refused a unanimous request by all other candidates to extend the membership deadline to accommodate more participants, and fix glitches in the system.

Ford managed to secure support in remote areas where a few votes actually turned the tide and delivered him the victory.

In reality, Elliott led in the popular vote within the party, but the strategic organizing by the Ford team won the day.

The same thing could happen in the federal race where the first candidate to reach 16,901 points in the race will be elected winner. However, the counting could take several days, because of the complexity of this election system.

MacKay’s campaign strategy to date has been very similar to that of American Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden. Say little and do even less.

Biden’s numbers have been climbing since he adopted the silence is golden strategy.

But the same cannot be said for the Conservative front-runner.

The quieter he has become, the more momentum has migrated to his main opponent.

The other element that will help O’Toole is age. The majority of his parliamentary endorsements are newer and younger members.

There is an old adage in politics that says the more experienced you are, the more you have to say and the less you have to do.

New Members of Parliament are out to make their mark and that means delivering as many votes as possible to their preferred candidate.

At this point, the parliamentary endorsements for MacKay and O’Toole are almost equal.

On the eve of the vote, MacKay’s front-runner status is no longer secure. A surprise may be in store.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

But it is not good news for the minority Liberal government.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on December 16, 2019.

OTTAWA—Even in resignation, Andrew Scheer was unable to muster kind words for any party other than that of the Conservatives.

His smile masked a bitterness that seemed to permeate his final goodbye to Parliament as leader.

He had fine prose for the people in his own party, and much support for the sacrifices made by his family. But he couldn’t even find one good thing to say about any other leader or party, except to put the prime minister on notice about how the Conservatives will keep holding the government to account.

Usually when people say their goodbyes to political leadership, they try to find something nice to say about everyone, even their sworn parliamentary enemies. But Scheer’s refusal to do so was equally as stubborn as his post-election fatal promise that he would never march in a Pride parade.

Scheer’s departure is good news for his party. It is not good news for the minority Liberal government.

Scheer’s brand was irreparably damaged by his own intransigent social conservatism.

By refusing to embrace a woman’s right to control her own body and by shunning Pride parades in celebration of gay equality, Scheer was a 19th century leader in a 21st century Parliament.

His grinning, father knows best, persona did not resonate with Canadian voters, and there was little chance he would be able to turn that around without a personality transplant.

Scheer’s muddled position on social issues and his weak campaign performance were a gift that kept on giving for the Liberals.

During the election, Scheer could not move the dial on the two-thirds of Canadians who simply could not vote for his socially conservative perspective.

From a refusal to move forward on climate change to the negative tone of his attacks on the prime minister, Scheer simply succeeded in pushing people away.

Even after the election, his embittered tone did not appeal to voters outside his party core.

At the end of the day, his departure opens the door to a clean sweep in the Conservatives, with a number of potential candidates for the leadership.

From Peter MacKay to Jason Kenney, and including Erin O’Toole and Rona Ambrose, there are a number of high-profile Conservatives who could replace Scheer.

And, although leadership campaigns can become internally divisive, the minority Parliament situation will temper the tone on the Tory campaign trail.

The Conservative Party wants to win the next election, so it will try to minimize any cleavages that might split the party apart.

The social conservatives who initially brought Scheer to power will also be out in full force, not wanting to lose ground to party members who are social liberals and fiscal conservatives.

The last race attracted 17 candidates, although four dropped out before the end. This time, the party will likely discourage such a broad range of participation.

The race will likely attract three or four high profile candidates, and their debates will focus on attacking the Liberals instead of each other. They understand that, during a minority situation, the best chance they have of winning the next election is to remain united. Candidates must differentiate themselves, one from another, but the tone of the campaign must remain positive and not divisive.

Given minority government, a leadership campaign needs to be relatively short in nature. There is a chance that an election could come at any time, and a leaderless party is not in a good starting position.

The party will probably move to replace Scheer before next fall. Meanwhile, the status of Scheer as a lame duck leader will help the Liberal minority manage its’ parliamentary agenda.

The Conservatives cannot go into an election without a leader, so it will be unlikely to defeat the government on any issue in the near term.

In the long term, the Tories will have a new leader and newness in politics is a huge asset. It happens to be the only profession where the more experience you get, the more people want to get rid of you.

Justin Trudeau will be facing his third election. His own personal brand carried the party in 2015 but by 2019, it was the Liberal Party that carried Trudeau to victory. Trudeau’s wounds from the SNC-Lavalin affair were deep, but even with the blackface revelations, Scheer could not get traction.

The new Tory leader won’t have that problem. She or he will be facing a two-term Liberal government.

Scheer’s symbolic walk in the snow last week has definitively reshaped Canada’s political landscape.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By SHEILA COPPS

Published first on Monday, January 9, 2017 in The Hill Times.

OTTAWA—Lisa Raitt’s campaign to stop Kevin O’Leary was brilliant.

It vaulted her to the front of the news cycle during a January political lull. It also set her up as a foil to the Trump-like tendencies of some of the Blue Tories who are already in the race or thinking of joining.

It would be folly to assume that Raitt does not want O’Leary in the race.

A good part of her message last week targeted Kellie Leitch, and the controversial proposed citizenship test of Canadian values.

Raitt needs O’Leary in the race to split the Blue Tory vote.

If that sounds complicated, two voting rules guarantee a campaign roller coaster ride in the months leading up to the May vote.

First, the Tories have adopted preferential balloting, which means that voters will actually rank their preferred candidates.

Ironically, that same system was one of the options proposed to replace the first-past-the-post general election vote, without much support from the Conservative Party.

The new system means the winner may not be the first choice of the greatest number of voters, but rather the second choice of the majority.

If this sounds complicated, it is one of the reasons that most people exit the conversation when the subject of electoral reform is broached.

But the peregrinations are compelling for political animals who follow leadership conventions with the same passion the rest of us reserve for hockey championships.

The greater the number of leadership candidates, the more Raitt needs to divide the vote in order to come up the middle. 

In other words, she needs the blunt force trauma that O’Leary’s candidacy would ignite to limit the potential migration of Blue Con votes to Leitch.

During multiple press appearances, Raitt spent more time railing on Leitch than on O’Leary, reinforcing her real intent in launching the Stop O’Leary website.

The site will also permit her supporters to get immediate access to email data of potential Conservative voters who don’t align with the values of O’Leary, and coincidentally, Leitch.

Raitt’s team followed up her press appearances with the purchase of a pop-up ad on social media flagging the Stop O’Leary website on all national news apps.

That data mining will be golden in recruiting more members and mobilizing an anti-O’Leary movement with the hopes of converting it to a pro-Raitt force.

The second element that makes the Raitt strategy so smart is the party’s decision to give equal electoral weight to every riding in the country, regardless of the number of registered Tories entitled to vote.

Raitt is one of only two Conservative candidates with ties to Atlantic Canada. She was born in Sydney, Nova Scotia to a family which shared a passion for business and unions. That could explain her visceral reaction to an O’Leary vow that, if in government, he would outlaw unions.

The other Conservative with Atlantic roots is fellow Ontario contender Erin O’Toole. He served in Shearwater and attended law school in Halifax during his career in the armed forces as a regular and reservist.

Even though the Tories were wiped out in Atlantic Canada in the last election, they have deep roots and strong provincial organizations in every province.

East coast ridings have as much weight as vote-rich Alberta, so anyone who can sweep Atlantic Canada has a good chance of being toward the front of the pack on voting day May 27.

Raitt’s bold move will allow her to recruit Red Tories who have a deep connection to the party and do not want to see it go down the same path as the Republican extremism south of the border.

Many Atlantic Conservatives yearn for the time when they used to be progressive, and there are plenty of Tory icons, from Flora MacDonald to John Crosbie, who never supported the Conservatives’ shift to the right under Stephen Harper.

Raitt is banking on social media technology and new recruitment techniques, to swell Red Tory, anti-O’Leary ranks within the party with online recruitment. In so doing, she is well-positioned to become everyone’s second choice.

That is where the likeability factor can have an influence

The risk in launching such a public attack on O’Leary and Leitch is that Raitt may bruise her reputation for likeability.

It requires a delicate balance to trash colleagues with a smile.

If she succeeds in establishing herself as the most viable progressive Conservative choice, she may be able to eclipse the neo-cons in the race.

Raitt’s move is a political game changer.

 
Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era Cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.