A close race could help push left-leaning voters toward the favoured Liberals, especially if the NDP doesn’t get its act together.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on August 23, 2021.

Many punches were thrown in the first week of the campaign. Few landed.

From vaccines to abortions, the two main leaders sparred on the wedge issues that could shape the campaign. But the one issue that could be decisive got no attention whatsoever.

Conservative leader Erin O’Toole unveiled his party’s slick promotional magazine touting various aspects of the platform. Most commentary focused on his buff body and how great he looked in a black t-shirt. The magazine was obviously intended to appeal to the millennial crowd, a voter cohort that has traditionally shied away from the Conservatives. But he will have a tough time beating the TikTok king Jagmeet Singh, who was recognized on the streets of Vancouver not as a political leader but as “that TikTok guy”. Liberals are perusing the Tory document for ammunition they might use to widen the wedge between themselves and their main opponent.

Outgoing Status of Women Minister Maryam Monsef was quick to point out a line in the platform promising to enshrine “conscience rights” for medical professionals in legislation. In and of itself, this might not be problematic, but O’Toole stated in July that he would not intervene if provinces defunded abortions in their health care planning.

“How provinces run their health care system is not what the federal government should be interfering with,” he told reporters during a whistle-stop in Fredericton, where the provincial government refuses to fund abortions performed outside the hospital setting.

The controversy swirls around a clinic that offers reproductive and general services to the LGTBQ community called Clinic 554. The federal Liberals have been withholding health transfers to the province because of their refusal to fund it, and the fact that there are no hospitals providing abortions in Fredericton.

O’Toole went to great lengths last week to convince Quebecers that he was pro-choice. But the fact that the majority of his caucus voted in the last Parliament to limit abortions does cast doubt on his affirmations.

Voteprolife has shut down public access to its website, which tracks abortion views of all candidates in the upcoming election. However, there is no doubt that over the course of the campaign, the views of all candidates will become public, and O’Toole’s solemn personal views will likely clash with his caucus majority.

In the last election, abortion became enough of a wedge to move some doubtful women voters over to the Liberals. I don’t think that is the issue to do so this time. Instead, the positions of the two main parties on childcare will cost the Tories dearly in terms of their capacity to attract support from the swathe of Greater Toronto Area so-called soccer moms so crucial to victory.

The value proposition for parents is clear: do you want money, or do you want safe childcare?

But parents with young children know that money is only part of the problem. The other issue is access to excellent licensed childcare spots. And a $10 dollar a day government-approved childcare establishment gives parents a lot more reassurance than a year-end refundable tax credit.

O’Toole won’t be able to attack the Liberal plan as profligate, since his approach costs approximately the same amount of money. In addition, he will have to tear up agreements with multiple Conservative provinces that have already signed onto the plan. But the biggest blunder is what could happen to his electoral chances in Quebec. La belle province has been living with subsidized childcare since it was introduced for $5 dollars a day by the Parti Quebecois government in 1997. With almost a quarter-century of experience, Quebecers are not about to give up a social program that they believe contributes to positive family and community life. And the government of Quebec has already signed an agreement to top up provincial spending with a lucrative cash transfer from the federal government. The childcare program is supported by the Bloc Quebecois as well, and they will be pounding hard at the Tories on this issue.

With several provincial governments already lining up to introduce more licensed childcare spaces to complement the federal plan, O’Toole’s promise to tear up those deals is not going to win him any support.

Instead, it will turn women off, the very voters he needs if he is to form the government.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

And it appears as though Erin O’Toole is about to make the same mistake as his predecessor, Andrew Scheer.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on March 22, 2021.

Leslyn Lewis is no Peter MacKay.

And the fact that MacKay was missing in action while Lewis was co-chair of the virtual national Conservative convention spells trouble.

It basically means that Erin O’Toole is making his bed with the social conservatives who have cost Tories a couple of elections.

MacKay characterized the social conservative views of his party as a “stinking albatross.” That statement probably cost him the leadership, but its truthfulness was borne out by the election results.

And it appears as though O’Toole is about to make the same mistake as his predecessor, Andrew Scheer.

By giving the convention spotlight to Lewis, the leader plans to line up behind a wing in his party that is anti-choice, anti-gay, and supportive of conversion therapy.

Her “surprising” sweep of Saskatchewan during the leadership against O’Toole was not surprising at all. The Saskatchewan wing of the party is dominated by social conservatism.

O’Toole has also made the mistake of letting MacKay know that his presence is not wanted in the next election.

That, in and of itself, is a gift to the Liberals.

MacKay and his father, Elmer, have deep Atlantic roots that started with the Progressive Conservatives.

MacKay distinguished himself as a fiscal conservative and social liberal, following the road map set out by successful past leaders including two-time Progressive Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney.

MacKay could have done some serious damage to Liberal hegemony in Atlantic Canada. He would also have been able to enlist support from long-time Mulroney supporters who are somewhat reluctant to jump in bed with the albatrosses that O’Toole is favouring.

Lewis, the first woman of colour to run for the federal party’s leadership, is bright and well-educated but has very little political experience.

She has been acclaimed to run in the Haldimand-Norfolk, Ont., riding that is being vacated by long-time Conservative heavyweight Diane Finley.

The riding has been characterized in the media as a Conservative stronghold, but history does not actually back up that claim.

Former Liberal MP Bob Speller actually held the riding from 1988 to 2004 and he had huge margins over his Progressive Conservative opponents until the arrival of Finley.

Lewis is being introduced into the riding by Finley but coming as a parachute from Toronto will not make things easy for her.

Her coattails are largely held by the group that the Conservatives want to distance themselves from.

But MacKay actually has coattails that can bring the progressive and regionally diverse regions back into the fold.

For the Conservatives to form government, they must make a breakthrough in Atlantic Canada, and the presence of MacKay supporters would have assisted in that regard.

The convention has made a point of kicking Derek Sloan off the team, ostensibly because of his poisonous comments on multiple issues.

But then they go and elevate his counterpart, Lewis, who has shared the similar viewpoint about social issues that he espouses.

Here’s how she explained her opposition to a ban on conversion therapy, citing the concern of parents and pastors “that their parental autonomy is being limited because the government is basically somewhat stepped in as a surrogate to tell them what they can and cannot do.”

In her platform for leadership, Lewis promised to “end abortion funding overseas … criminalize coerced abortions.”

During the leadership, she was lauded by Christianity Today as “the only one [candidate] speaking about her faith.”

So, O’Toole definitely did not need to kick out two social conservatives from the party, especially since their supporters actually delivered him the leadership.

But he certainly should not have elevated a social conservative to star status if he actually wants to win the next election.

Most Canadians believe firmly in the separation of church and state, and the vast majority do not believe that parents or pastors can convince young people to change their sexual orientation.

O’Toole’s first words after the leadership convention involved assuring Canadians that he would be marching in Gay Pride parades, unlike his predecessor. That was an important step in moving the party back to the moderate middle.

That is where they need to be if they intend to convince voters that they can be trusted not to tamper with basic reproductive rights and sexual orientation laws.

But all the work was thrown away on the weekend, as it became increasingly clear that the social conservatives are in charge of the federal Conservative team.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Quebecers will band together to promote French and governments need to have their back. But not at the expense of francophones in the rest of Canada.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on February 22, 2021.

Economic Development and Official Languages Minister Melanie Joly’s white paper on official languages has not even been released and already the opposition parties are lining up against it.

In a speech in November, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole accused the Liberals of refusing “to protect French in Quebec because they did not want to harm linguistic minorities in other parts of the country.”

O’Toole went on to claim media pundits were acting in bad faith by comparing the anglophone minority in Quebec to francophones outside Quebec. He claimed that was a “false equivalency.”

To that end, the Conservative party under his leadership is vowing to apply Quebec’s Bill 101 to federally regulated businesses in that province.

On the face of it, that does not seem like a big deal.

But by adopting a provincial language law, the federal government would be throwing millions of francophones outside Quebec under the bus.

If one province is successful in ensuring that its language laws can also override federal jurisdiction, it won’t be long before anti-French campaigns in other parts of the country close down schools and services that are currently funded, in part, by federal language policy and laws.

Joly is treading on very dangerous ground with this white paper, because all opposition parties are lining up to turn it into an anti-French attack by the Laurentian Liberals on la belle province.

The moribund Bloc is dying for an opportunity to drive a wedge into the relationship between francophones and anglophones in the country.

A language war is the only way to convince nationalist Quebecers that supporting the sovereigntists in an election is not a lost cause.

The Tories are trying to re-establish themselves as the party of the Union Nationale and the old Progressive Conservatives, when federal election victories were always dependent on support from Quebec nationalists.

As for the New Democratic Party, it has already thrown its lot in with the separatists. The Sherbrooke Declaration, which was a fairly calculated move by Tom Mulcair and Jack Layton to attract Quebecers, would basically give Canada away with a referendum vote of a simple majority.

Jagmeet Singh has already endorsed the declaration, and the last campaign solidified his attachment to separation, when his Quebec members moved away from their support for social democracy and focussed instead on sovereignty and the right to separate.

Even with that carrot, the party bled votes in Quebec, but when it comes to language laws, the Liberals will be alone in their support for a federal language policy that could apply across the country.

Already the Quebec National Assembly has moved unanimously to support the position of the government that all Quebecers and all services, should be governed by provincial language laws only.

The newly minted provincial Liberal leader followed in the footsteps of her predecessors by falling in line on Bill 101 without even bothering to suggest a single amendment.

That is not surprising as it is common knowledge in Quebec political circles that most provincial Liberals are actually federal Tories. That is why former Quebec premier Jean Charest moved with ease between the two parties at the federal and provincial level.

But if the white paper content and rollout is not properly managed, the Liberals could back themselves into a corner in strategically vote-rich Quebec.

If Quebecers feel attacked, they will immediately band together and vote en masse. And that capacity to vote collectively could change the outcome of the election.

That is why Quebec-born Erin O’Toole was out early on his party’s position on Bill 101. He knows this could play very well in certain parts of the province that he desperately needs to form government.

The white paper may succeed in lowering the temperature, which is what the Liberals need to kill a divisive language issue on the eve of an election.

Joly has excellent communication skills in both official languages, but as she discovered on the Netflix file, the devil is in the details.

You can rest assured the Prime Minister’s Office will be combing through details of the document, looking for potential pitfalls.

The Liberals have already taken a beating in Quebec on the decision to grandfather possession of military assault rifles and defer to municipalities on the decision to ban handguns.

That won’t be too damaging because the other parties do not want a legislative gun battle.

But language is a different story.

Quebecers will band together to promote French and governments need to have their back. But not at the expense of francophones in the rest of Canada.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

The anti-gay and anti-choice views that formed the basis of his campaign for the Conservative leadership were bad enough.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on December 7, 2020.

OTTAWA—Derek Sloan should be tossed from the Conservative caucus.

The anti-gay and anti-choice views that formed the basis of his campaign for the Conservative leadership were bad enough.

Last week, he went from the ridiculous to the delirious, sponsoring a parliamentary petition that discourages Canadians from vaccinating themselves against the worst public health scourge in a century.

Sloan actually went so far as to claim that the vaccination was human experimentation and within hours of its announcement, his petition had gathered more than 22,000 signatures. Even more frightening was the decision by Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole to sidestep the question when asked about it during a presser on the government’s handling of the vaccine. On this one, O’Toole is making a deadly mistake.

While he and his party were starting to develop some media traction in the attacks on government pandemic strategies, the Sloan petition has the effect of throwing all that under the bus.

It makes a number of egregiously false claims including the fact that “no coronavirus vaccine has ever been approved because of serious adverse effects, including death to test animals, due to pathogenic priming; COVID vaccines are not designed to prevent infection or transmission and bypassing proper safety protocols means COVID-19 vaccination is effectively human experimentation.”

This is not the first time Sloan has put his foot in the wrong place. Who can forget his claim that Dr. Theresa Tam was a Chinese agent, a statement for which he did apologize? He has not apologized for opposing federal legislation to end conversion therapy. Sloan stands with those groups that claim they can stamp out homosexual urges through shaming and bullying.

O’Toole is refusing to silence Sloan and by not doing so, he will alienate the majority of the thinking population.

How can the Conservative leader convince Canadians to vaccinate themselves when his own colleague is leading the warped world of online anti-vaxxers?

Before the recent American presidential vote, social media websites like Instagram and Twitter actually blocked false anti-vaccination claims, suggesting they were untrue and designed to have an influence on the election result.

But here in Canada, O’Toole runs the risk of losing the public completely by refusing to stop Sloan from peddling his false and dangerous claims.

It looks as though the Conservatives are backing themselves into the same corner that cost them the last election.

Their refusal to shake off the extremists in their caucus and party are going to do them grievous harm when most Canadians are looking for leadership on pandemic issues.

With the government launching another confidence vote on the $25-billion COVID-fighting investment announced by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland last week, the Tories could be facing the electorate sooner rather than later.

That means a clear, coherent strategy on the main issue of the day should not be muddied by caucus members with mixed messaging. Kicking Sloan out would mean a couple of days of internally negative headlines, but it would clear the way for an election that would not be affected by mixed Tory messaging.

O’Toole has struggled to place himself in the moderate middle when it comes to social issues facing his very conservative caucus. He made it clear immediately after his leadership that he was not going to follow the lead of Andrew Scheer and turn his back on the gay community.

But with colleagues who have no problem doing that, O’Toole’s brand is damaged when he does nothing about them.

Thus far, the Conservatives have not made much political hay out of the COVID challenge. Even with government missteps, the Tories have been kept off balance by bizarre claims from Sloan that question mask-wearing and accuse public servants of being in cahoots with the Chinese government.

Those statements were beyond bizarre but last week’s anti-vaccination rant makes Sloan’s previous missteps pale in comparison.

If there is one way that we are going to be able to end this collective, global nightmare, it is by massive immunization with a vaccine that can protect the globe from this deadly virus.

The opposition has every right to question the government on vaccine availability and rollout, and the federal/provincial cooperation that has characterized the last nine months could be shattered in the fight for vaccinations.

Under normal circumstances, that tension should provide a real opening for a reasoned, competent Opposition leader to show how his party could offer something better.

But when O’Toole refuses to fire a team member who is a delirious anti-vaxxer, all leadership claims ring hollow.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.