If an election were held today, there is little doubt that the Liberals would easily be rewarded with a majority. But uncertainty in international affairs, including the war against Iran and trade agreement confusion, could make that support short lived.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on March 16, 2026.

OTTAWA—Another floor-crosser made the Liberals’ day.

Not only does Lori Idlout take them that much closer to a majority government, but it also reinforces the fact that Prime Minister Mark Carney is receiving support from across the broad political spectrum.

Until last week, only the more progressive Conservatives had made the move to cross the floor. In the case of Acadie-Annapolis MP Chris d’Entremont, he hails from the southern shore of Nova Scotia which has often flipped between the Liberals and the Tories.

The easternmost parts of the country have always leaned more heavily to the Liberals, and his riding is usually simply a Liberal/ Conservative battle.

With the exception of the Halifax area, most Atlantic New Democrats have received support based on personal appeal, rather than party label.

Jack Harris, a former long-time NDP MP and former leader of the Newfoundland and Labrador, was the only New Democrat elected in Atlantic Canada in 2015 when then-Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s “sunny days” swept the country.

When the New Democratic Party’s interim leader Don Davies announced the floor crossing of Nunavut MP on March 10, he urged the former New Democrat to put her decision to a riding vote.

“The position of the New Democrats on floor crossing is longstanding and clear. We believe that when someone rejects the decision of their electors and wants to join another party, they should put that decision to their voters.” Davies said in a statement revealing Idlout’s decision to join the Liberals.

For the Liberals, the move was met with elation. The party is now just two seats short of a majority, and with three byelections scheduled for April 13, the numbers could soon increase by at least two.

In addition, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s capacity to attract a New Democrat into his caucus will assure left-leaning Liberals that his leadership is centrist enough to attract their voter base.

Until last week, the floor crossers were all Conservatives. Markham-Unionville MP Michael Ma joined the Liberals in December. He also represents a riding that has historically been a Liberal constituency.

The third Tory, Matt Jeneroux, was a bigger surprise because the Alberta MP doesn’t face the same level of electoral risk locally. In the last election, running as a Conservative, he won with a majority of 50.25 per cent. However, his Liberal opponent increased the Grit vote by almost 20 per cent, aided by the collapse of the New Democrats.

The current NDP slide, with the loss of party status and a leadership race where most candidates cannot speak French, will actually help the Liberals in Jeneroux’s riding.

The long-serving Tory said he crossed the floor because he was impressed by Carney’s speech in Davos, and became convinced that the global crisis demanded strong Canadian government leadership. That opened the door to his support for Carney, and a move that could also reinforce his personal popularity in the riding.

Likewise, in certain urban ridings in Alberta—and definitely in British Columbia—the Liberals’ capacity to attract former New Democrat voters will determine whether or not they can secure a majority government.

Carney has been making positive international waves and that reflects back on his popularity in Canada.

If an election were held today, there is little doubt that the Liberals would easily be rewarded with a majority.

But uncertainty in international affairs—including the war against Iran and trade agreement confusion—could make that support short lived.

Thus far, for as a non-politician, Carney has handled the situation with aplomb and insight. People trust him, and some of the most frequent comments relate to the fact that he is not a lifelong politician.

His business background and international, bureaucratic experience position him as someone who literally can make political decisions without appearing like a politician.

Davies came out early on the Idlout resignation, hoping to get ahead of the story. But even floor-crossings don’t seem to hurt this prime minister. In explaining her move, Idlout underscored the fact that that Carney is the first prime minister from the North, given his birthplace in Fort Smith, N.W.T.

She also lauded him for investments already made in Nunavut, one of the reasons she supported the last budget and helped the minority government avoid defeat.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is claiming “backroom deals” are designed to “seize a costly majority that voters reject, which will enable Liberals to balloon debt, inflate the cost of living, block resources and turn criminals loose on our streets.”

Contrary to Poilievre’s claim, the deals seem to enhance Carney’s popularity.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

While current popular support trends remain close between the two parties, Mark Carney’s personal popularity is in the stratosphere relative to Pierre Poilievre’s.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on November 24, 2025.

OTTAWA–The drama of a budget vote had every political animal in the country on the edge of their seat.

And in the end, it was a cliffhanger. But in reality, the outcome should not have been a surprise to anyone.

Having just come off an election this past spring, there was zero appetite to go back to the polls for most political parties.

The only leader who could have benefited from an election is Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. A ‘no’ vote would have meant that his mandated January 2026 party review would be cancelled.

Poilievre is probably feeling fairly comfortable, given the party review vote will be held in the middle of winter in Calgary. That is the basis for his strength, and much of his support is from Members of Parliament whose purpose in politics is ideological.

Approximately 40 members of the Conservative caucus are rabidly anti-choice, while another three dozen have expressed their opposition to abortion during the election.

Politicians who are elected because of an ideology are less likely to care about winning.

The party members who do care about winning are circling the wagons in anticipation of the January opportunity to replace the leader.

Former party insider Dimitri Soudas has been openly critical of Poilievre, and as last week’s events proved, Ontario Premier Doug Ford is also no friend of the official opposition leader.

When Ford was asked about a potential federal election, he basically threw his federal cousins under the bus. The premier said so many nice things about Prime Minister Mark Carney that an observer would have thought they shared a party.

Some have even written that Carney’s budget is progressive conservative in nature.

Ford is obviously well-organized in Ontario, and Soudas’ political roots in Quebec are deep. Both of these provinces are pivotal to winning any federal election. While Conservatives in Quebec and Ontario are not ideologues, they are used to winning at the provincial and federal levels.

If they have decided that Poilievre is not a winnable candidate, they could cause problems for him in the January vote.

Hence a federal election would have allowed Poilievre to focus on the external opposition to the government, not the internal opposition within his own ranks.

The New Democrats are in the middle of their own leadership race, so the potential of an election would be unthinkable for them.

Even though they publicly opposed the budget, they allowed it to survive by securing two abstentions. NDP abstainers included Lori Idlout and Gord Johns. Idlout did not want to vote against the budget because it included a major investment in her riding of Nunavut.

Interim NDP leader Don Davies told the media after the vote that his party did not want for force an election; therefore, he approved the two abstentions.

As for the Tories, one of the abstainers, Shannon Stubbs, said she acting on doctor’s orders while the other, Matt Jeneroux, has already disclosed his dissatisfaction with his party by announcing he will not be seeking re-election.

Some thought he might cross the floor to the Liberals, following the example of Nova Scotian Chris d’Entremont who left the Conservative caucus on Nov. 4 because he said he didn’t feel represented there. Rumours swirled about other potential floor crossings, but none have materialized to date.

The Liberals will have to hope that some occur because, in minority government, there could be similar, but unsuccessful votes in the next budget, or on a supply motion in the fall.

Poilievre isn’t the only one hoping that he wins his leadership review in the New Year.

Most Liberals believe he is their ticket to remain in government.

While current popular support trends remain close between the two parties, Carney’s personal popularity is in the stratosphere relative to Poilievre’s.

If the budget vote had failed on Nov. 17, there was a good chance that the current polling numbers could have led to a Liberal majority government.

Carney looked cool, calm, and collected on the day of the cliffhanger, probably because he was in a no-lose situation.

Had the election been called, his personal popularity would definitely have outstripped that of the leader of the opposition.

A budget win gives him a few more months to prove to the Canadian people that he is the leader best positioned to pivot away from dependence on economic integration with the United States.

Carney’s global view, and business experience have helped capture the confidence of Canadians.

As long as Poilievre is leading the Tories, Carney has good reason to smile.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.