Nathaniel Erskine-Smith has worn a target on his back for the last several months. Now a new frontrunner will be under attack and the Ford team is already working hard to build attack ads against whomever wins the race.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May 18, 2026.

OTTAWA—The leaderless Ontario Liberal Party is currently polling ahead of Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives.

That is tough news for the provincial government, but even tougher news for the Ontario New Democratic Party. The Liberals have landed in third place in the last two elections with NDP leader Marit Stiles performing well in the legislature as the leader of the official opposition.

One election loss was considered a fluke. Two elections is a trend. So the prevailing wisdom was that the NDP would replace the Liberals as the government in waiting.

But for many reasons, that has not happened. Instead, the Liberal brand is holding steady in Canada’s most populous province, and even without a leader, looks poised to potentially form government.

Ford’s stumbles have been rare, but the latest reversal of his decision to purchase a $29-million jet to travel to Timmins and the north seems to have caught voters’ attention.

The explanation of the plane purchase was dubious as the premier claimed that he would use it to move more efficiently across the province and get more work done.

The runway length required by the Bombardier Challenger 650 meant the plane could only land in 19 of the province’s 179 operational airports.

The purchase reversal came quickly, with Ford’s usual statement that he was simply listening to the voters, but the fiasco hurt. The Liberals quickly shot two points ahead in the polls.

And then a Liberal leadership candidate shot himself in the foot.

In a pitched nomination battle, Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith lost the race in Scarborough-Southwest by 19 votes to Ahsanal Hafiz.

Erskine-Smith took a huge chance in running in a riding across town from the seat he currently holds in the House of Commons. He has been elected in Beaches-East York since 2015, and announced last week he would be stepping down at the end of the session.

Had he followed the example of NDP Leader Avi Lewis, he would have waited for a seat that was much safer, but Erskine-Smith has always been a risk-taker.

He plans to contest the nomination results, which saw more than 1,000 members ruled ineligible to vote. But he has also said the outcome has forced him to reconsider his ambitions.

Only one current sitting provincial member has announced her intention to run for the Liberal leadership race which has been called for November.

Last week, Ontario MPP Lee Fairclough announced her candidacy. The rookie MPP for Etobicoke-Lakeshore was a surprise victor in Ford’s home area in the last election, and has a deep background in medicine, including managing a hospital during COVID.

In her youth, she was a member of Canada’s national women’s rugby team, so she knows how to fight.

Fairclough already has the support of three senior Liberals: MPP’s Lucille Collard, Ted Hsu, and former deputy leader Deb Matthews. She is the only current MPP who has declared her candidacy although Ajax MPP Rob Cerjanec has been actively organizing behind the scenes.

Other names being bandied about include Navdeep Bains, a former minister in the federal government with strong organizational ability. It is widely believed within the Ontario Liberal Party that Bains is one of the two people, along with Erskine-Smith, who organized an active campaign to damage former leader Bonnie Crombie at the leadership review convention last fall.

Lacklustre support prompted Crombie to step down back in January, citing the new year as a chance for new beginnings.

Some believed she should have had another shot at electoral victory, and they blame Erskine-Smith and Bains for her exit.

Until the weekend, Erskine-Smith was widely viewed as the frontrunner in the leadership.

But the Scarborough nomination battle was filled with acrimony, with last week’s defeat capping off a month of negative headlines for Erskine-Smith.

He questioned the results, and blamed party brass for smoothing the way for his opponent. But he also faced criticism for a last-minute endorsement from Prime Minister Mark Carney that ruffled local feathers.

Even leaderless, the provincial Liberals are ahead. But once a leader is chosen, that could quickly change.

A frontrunner starts with a target on their back. Erskine-Smith has worn that target for the last several months. Now a new frontrunner will be under attack. Candidates for the Ontario Liberal leadership must enter the race before July 31.

The Ford team is already working hard to build attack ads against whomever wins the race.

Bains has experience, but that comes with baggage. Cerjanec and Fairclough have no experience. In politics, that could actually work in their favour.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

There are four putative candidates considering a run at the Liberal leadership. Shockingly, they are all current Liberals and each has something unique to offer. So it’s insulting to assume that their talent is ignored by 38 ‘insiders’ looking for another saviour. 

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on February 6, 2023.

Green Party of Ontario chief Mike Schreiner leads a party of one. After 14 years at the helm, he has only managed to get himself elected. He has had five years to grow the Green base after being elected as the Greens’ first member of Ontario Legislature.

It’s been five years and he hasn’t managed to a recruit a single additional successful Green candidate to the legislature.

Yet for some bizarre reason, a few big names in the Ontario Liberal Party want him as their next leader.

In an open letter that landed like a fart in church, several high-profile Liberals including the first woman leader Lynn McLeod and former deputy leader Deb Matthews penned an open letter, calling on Schreiner to consider joining the Grits.

Their rationale was this: “Our party needs to rediscover the politics of purpose and principle…that’s why we’re turning to you.”

At first blush, the letter seems like a call to arms for party reform. The biggest change would be to elect a leader who is not currently a Liberal.

But amongst four potential leadership candidates, three are racialized Canadians and the fourth is under the age of 40. So how is anointing an over-50-year-old white male going to appeal to a new generation?

In the last election, some of the authors of the open letter were actively working for the coronation of Steven Del Duca. The race was finished before it started because the rules were so restrictive.

Del Duca was a great organizer, but a lousy communicator.

Schreiner is the opposite.

But communications is just part of the job. The biggest challenge facing the next Liberal leader is to recruit a team that could credibly transition to government.

Del Duca did a great job in recruitment and had some fantastic candidates who are still working in their ridings.

And that’s what it will take: hard work on the ground. There is no saviour in politics. The party has to do the work from the ground up. That means recruiting new members in every part of the province. It also means opening up to new people. In some cases, riding associations consist of a few people who have been there for years, without ever having won a single election.

That is quite often the case in the Green Party. Look at its current national situation. The last election was a disaster for party, with their leader more focused on party infighting than winning elections.

When they decided to make a change, it was a simple: it was back to the future. Retired leader Elizabeth May returned as co-leader. May and Schreiner have a lot in common. Both born in the United States, they emigrated to Canada.

Like May, Schreiner is a great communicator. But when it comes to organization, the Greens have decided to embrace a leader who took over the party in 2006. Almost 20 years later, the party has topped out at four seats in Parliament and that number is dwindling because of internal party division.

It’s hardly a recipe for government.

Schreiner was an excellent addition to the leaders’ debate as was May, who held her own in every debate she entered. But neither have demonstrated the organizational skills needed for government.

There are already four putative candidates considering a run at the Liberal leadership. And shockingly, they are all current Liberals.

All four have already been elected, and two have served in cabinet.

The party will be reviewing a more open voting process at its annual general meeting in Hamilton next month.

Three of them are racialized Canadians. Mitzie Hunter would be the party’s first Black leader. Yasir Naqvi would be the first Muslim, Ted Hsu would be the first leader of Asian heritage. Nate Erskine-Smith would be the youngest leader ever elected.

Those demographics should be of interest to the “insiders” who want to reach out to a new generation.

None is a saviour.

But all have proven that they are not simply flyby Liberals. Two have been elected federally and provincially in ridings that were very tough to win. Two have survived the wipeout experienced by most candidates in the last election.

Each has something unique to offer. It is insulting to assume that their talent is ignored by 38 insiders looking for another saviour.

These candidates are offering experience, hard work, organizational skills, and a commitment to Liberalism.

The last thing the party needs is a walkover Liberal.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.