By SHEILA COPPS

First published on April 2, 2018 in The Hill Times.

OTTAWA—Data mining is the key to election wins.

The more tools at your disposal, the easier it is to target volunteer efforts in the most efficient manner.

The 21st century reality for political parties is that the pool of volunteers, primarily non-working women, is shrinking and the way we reach voters is changing.

Any political party worth their salt is going to utilize all tools at their disposal to outsmart the opposition.

Most observers in Ontario are writing Kathleen Wynne off. But don’t jump too quickly to the conclusion that her days as premier are over.

The Ontario Liberals have a finely honed, micro-targeting machine, and every promise they roll out is designed to identify that base, and grow it where possible.

Last week’s announcement of universal access to child care for all kids once they reach the age of two-and-a-half directly appeals to more than 100,000 parents and child-care workers.

For families, the announcement represents an estimated savings of $15,000 a year. Since the premier specified the offer includes only licensed child-care centres, it also targets child-care operators and employees.

Couple that with the Liberal plan to increase the minimum wage again next January and you have a very good idea of which voters are being targeted by Wynne’s team. Both policies widen the swathe of potential support for the Liberals.

The minimum wage hike targets potential swing voters away from the New Democratic Party.

Those on the Liberal left, who support the fair wage campaign, include unions and social advocates who fight for the working poor.

Many of those would align naturally with the NDP. However, if the race unfolds as a two-way fight, they will not want to risk the hard-fought minimum wage gains to a right-wing government that could roll it back.

You can already see the Liberal ads, focused on pushing Doug Ford over into an ever smaller corner of supporters based on his own core vote.

Wynne is also going straight for the suburban soccer mom, who loves the idea that child care is universally available. That demographic is usually on the centre-right of the spectrum. Her family does not want to pay higher taxes, but she considers universally accessible child care an investment in children, not a tax grab. Seniors definitely do not share her passion for universality.

The promise unveiled last week reminds voters that it was the Liberals who introduced the wildly successful full-day junior kindergarten program which has already involved considerable child care savings for young, two-earner families. Wynne does not have to look far to find out who will support the child-care expansion plan.

Her election team is already equipped with packages designed to regurgitate to voters exactly what the Grit polling teams have identified as their key campaign concerns.

The roll-out is micro-targeted, to the point where on a single street, canvassers will have their choice of three or four brochures to give out.

If they are knocking on a senior’s door, the information will target health care and retirement concerns. They certainly will not be trumpeting universal child care because that could turn off older voters who figure they should not have to support someone else’s child rearing costs when no one did it for them.

What most voters do not realize, is that the real targeting work is done long before anyone ever knocks on your door. Data mining permits political campaigns to dig deeply and understand exactly what each individual voter wants.

A good campaign will even drill down to different voters within a single household. Many city dwellers split political allegiance among multiple parties.

In the last two elections, the Ontario voter turnout was the worst in history. Half of eligible voters do not even show up. So a smart data-based voter strategy will definitely pick the winner.

Conservatives will use the same strategies to identify their supporters and get them to the polls. Evangelical voters opposed to sex education are particularly committed and will swell the ranks of Tory volunteers so crucial in voter identification.

But the number of Ontarians who will choose their premier on that issue is minimal. Ford’s challenge will be to broaden his appeal and expand the pool of eligible support.

The Ontario election outcome depends on knowing where your support is and making sure they vote.

No matter what grilling may be dished out to Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg in Washington, political data mining is here to stay.

It wins elections.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By SHEILA COPPS

Published first on Monday, March 26, 2018 in The Hill Times.

OTTAWA—Facebook’s global data breach is anything but surprising.

What is surprising is the sturm and drang from all corners demanding Mark Zuckerberg’s head.

Surprise: companies are mining data to sell you stuff, even get inside your head to influence your voting patterns.

Hello. Forget about Facebook. One just has to scroll the internet to be subject to the voracious marketing appetite of the euphemistically-called cookies. Looking up a recipe? You will be flooded with information on what gadget you need to create the perfect soufflé.

Checking on home décor? Expect to receive an onslaught of unwanted material on the multiple shapes and sizes of an exotic online berber rug. None of these info dumps are breaches of any code of confidentiality. To get access to the treasure trove of information available on the net, consumers have already signed away any right to privacy.

Apps are often made available at no cost, as long as we agree to subject ourselves to an onslaught of advertising in return for embedding a free scanner or a language app into our phone.

Our exact location is pinpointed in most apps, once we grant permission for Google maps or other devices to supplement our limited navigational skills.

I could go on. The bottom line is that in the past quarter century, the post-information world is full of examples where even the notion of maintaining privacy or shielding ourselves from being identified is laughable.

The raison d’etre of Facebook is to see and be seen. Kids today can even download personalized apps to drive more traffic to their Instagram accounts, where 14-year-olds pose in provocative ways to attract attention and followers.

Facebook allows you up to 5,000 “friends” before you can become a marketing machine of your own.

So as the world is marketing via the internet, politicians will obviously be doing the same thing.

And no congressional or parliamentary committee is going to be able to police the dump of information on the internet that can and will find itself in the hands of unscrupulous people.

Politicians are in the business of persuasion. They too are selling an ersatz product, themselves, and their political beliefs.

And the easiest way to recruit followers these days is via the internet.

Facebook posts are a window into the mind of every voter. They usually indicate sexual orientation, family, religious status, and attitudinal bent.

So if you want to stop your data from being mined, you have to stop offering up your life story to strangers with the intent of increasing your “likes.”

And if you want to keep your Facebook profile out of the hands of Donald Trump, you have to stop releasing personal information to apps and sites that are set up specifically for the purpose of mining your consumer habits to sell you things.

Back in the nineties, politicians were just getting started in the world of social media.

Now-deceased Winnipeg Member of Parliament Reg Alcock set up the House of Commons first eblast by enlisting thousands of constituents to sign up for regular information updates. He even offered seminars to help colleagues join the social media phenomenon.

Former U.S. president Barack Obama and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau both proved very adept at utilizing social media to grow their support base and to enlist volunteers, including many first-time voters. They turned political skeptics into believers. Both were lauded for their savvy in being able to entice new voters to the polls and the key was creative use of social media.

Canada witnessed the first criminal cases involving robo-dialler internet technology that deliberately directed opponents to the wrong poll on voting day.

Tom Flanagan, key adviser to former prime minister Stephen Harper in the early years, credits “direct voter contact” as the main reason Conservatives increased their seat count by 21 in the 2004 election.

Political machines, whether at the local, provincial, or national level, depend on massive information tools to pinpoint voter intention. They then focus on getting their own supporters to vote and discouraging opponents from doing the same.

The last American federal election witnessed targeted voter suppression based on race. Keeping blacks home became part of the Republican arsenal for success. Given that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote handily, but lost the election because of an electoral college loss of about 80,000 votes, you can understand why data mining is part of any political campaign.

Buyer beware: Facebook postings will be mined by less than honest marketers. And that includes politicians.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.