What does it say about the Conservative leader that he attracted so few people to the Canada rally in the province he now represents in Parliament?

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on October 5, 2026.

OTTAWA—If there is any doubt that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has peaked, just look at the crowd assembled in Edmonton last week at the Conservatives for Canada rally.

The number, including multiple MPs, totalled about 100 people.

Eighteen months ago, the Conservative party said it attracted between 12,000 and 15,000 people for a similar rally outside Edmonton during the election.

At the time, the RCMP estimated the number between 9,000 and 12,000, while media observers said the crowd numbered around 1,700.

Last year, it was a pre-election rally when the Conservatives were in the ascendancy.

This year, it was a rally called to encourage Alberta voters to cast their ballot for Canada in the upcoming provincial referendum.

Arguably, last week’s rally was more important. While political parties change positions in government on a regular basis, there is no return for a province that decides to break away from the rest of Canada.

What does it say about the Conservative leader that he attracted so few people to the Canada rally in the province he now represents in Parliament?

If anything, it should be easiest for Poilievre to attract crowds in Alberta because it remains the province where he has the greatest support in terms of popular vote.

The tepid response to his speech spoke volumes about why Poilievre will never be elected prime minister of Canada.

When it came to defending his love for this country, Poilievre spent most of the time talking about how Ottawa doesn’t work. And the blame for that dysfunction was placed squarely on the shoulders of the Liberal Party.

He didn’t have too many good reasons to encourage voters to remain a part of Canada. Even in Alberta, the numbers in favour of separation seem to be wavering in the final weeks leading up to the referendum vote that was launched by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.

With the vote some three weeks away, almost three-quarters of decided voters say they plan to vote to remain in Canada. Another quarter say they will vote to leave.

Separatists believe the decision to break away from Canada would make them financially richer. Supporters of the federation disagree.

There are several other questions on the ballot about repatriating powers for Alberta, the basis of which are eerily similar to the initial demands by the Quebec separatists when they ran two referendums.

The separatist supporters in Quebec are stuck at around 29 per cent in multiple recent surveys, but there is a good chance the Parti Québécois will be forming government in the upcoming provincial election.

The only way the PQ has built momentum is by promising not to hold a referendum during the term of United States President Donald Trump.

While Canada’s sovereignty is being threatened, separatists will stick with the rest of us, but they plan to leave as soon as the American Trump threat is gone.

Quebecers do not have an appetite for a referendum, and before the election was launched, former separatist leader Lucien Bouchard warned current leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to drop the referendum promise. St-Pierre Plamondon won the leadership with a promise to hold a referendum in his first term.

But by promising a Trump-related delay, the PQ leader has neutralized the question and is able to calm nervous voters by claiming there will be no referendum until at least 2029.

Quebec separatists are running on non-separation, but there is no doubt that if they win a majority, that promise could be broken if timing were right.

If Poilievre is only able to attract 100 people to an Alberta Conservatives for Canada rally, how would he ever be able to inspire Quebecers to remain in Canada in the event of a PQ referendum?

The answer is that he could not, and if the separation threat in Quebec rears its ugly head in 2029, we better have a federal leader who can instill confidence in the Canadian choice.

Poilievre has spent so much of his political career attacking Ottawa that he is hard-pressed to make the case for Canada. That was painfully obvious at the pathetic Conservatives for Canada rally in Edmonton last week.

Chances are the number of people in favour of Alberta separation may end up closer to the 29 per cent of Quebecers who want to leave.

One-sided polling favours Canada, but motivation by separatists may result in a higher voter turnout on their side.

If the Conservative rally was any indication, supporters of staying in Canada desperately need a more vibrant and enthusiastic leader.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.