But Doug Ford’s move in cutting off the possibility of advertising that could depict him negatively will have an impact in the fight ahead. It may also have a rebound effect federally and not in the way Ford intended.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on June 14, 2021.

OTTAWA—Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s decision to limit third-party political advertising by invoking the Constitution’s notwithstanding clause is not surprising.

The Ontario legislature was recalled last week, less than a week after it rose for the summer, for a vote to overturn a court decision on the controversial use of third-party advertising dollars before elections.

An Ontario Superior Court judge just ruled that a new Ontario law limiting third-party advertising in the lead up to an election was an unconstitutional limit on free expression.

The ruling did not overturn a current $100,000 limit on third-party advertising during the course of an election writ period.

Ford’s majority will have no problem passing legislation to invoke the notwithstanding clause.

Both opposition parties called the move an attack on free speech. And while they have the courts behind them, chances are the vote will have zero political impact outside of the inner circle of political parties.

Most people have little understanding of the myriad of rules that govern spending and advertising within the writ period and on an ongoing basis. Nor do they care.

They have a lingering belief that all politics is slightly slimy and care little about rules for political advertising.

Most voters will stoutly claim that they are not influenced by ads, and the majority will claim they oppose negative messaging.

But the bottom line is that negative third-party advertising works.

In two successive elections, anti-Liberal advertising money from right-wing coalitions was able to effectively label Liberal leaders Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff long before the election writ was dropped.

On the campaign trail, voters even quoted directly from negative ads in explaining why they oppose a particular candidate.

The Conservative campaign victory in both instances was partially prompted by the onslaught of negative campaigning long before the election was even called.

Ford’s party felt the same sting when Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne scored a surprising victory with the help of advertising support from Working Families, a union-sponsored initiative that encouraged people not to vote for the Tories.

Working Families was the same coalition that took the Ford government to court because of the recent limits on third party advertising in the year leading up to the election.

The judgment in their favour will be appealed to the Supreme Court.

And we can expect a court appeal of the upcoming notwithstanding legislation.

The drafters of the original Charter of Rights and Freedoms included the notwithstanding clause as a quid pro quo to get almost all provinces on board. Quebec has never signed the constitutional document.

However, the clause was supposed to be used in exceptional circumstances. It certainly was not seen as a tool with which to rewrite election law.

By invoking the clause for this political reason, the Ford government risks damaging the overarching message of the Charter, which protects and supports the rights of all, including minorities.

The Charter was instrumental in paving the way for marriage equality in the LBGTQ communities.

An attack on that Charter could become a political issue in communities that are still struggling to achieve full equality.

With racism and sexism still top of mind concerns for some voters, the decision to weaken the Charter could become an election issue.

But more likely, the Conservative government’s decision to cut off third-party advertising with the notwithstanding clause will help narrow the election gap that currently exists.

A recent poll commissioned by Ontario’s public broadcaster, TVO, shows that Ford has potentially leapt back into re-election contention after a disastrous spring.

In a survey by Maru asking Ontarians who they would have preferred at the helm during the pandemic, 42 per cent cited the Tories, with the New Democrats at 25 per cent and the Liberals at 24 per cent. Surprisingly, the Green Party garnered nine per cent support.

Those numbers will not remain stagnant until the election. With federal infighting in the Green Party, that will likely filter through to the provincial results.

But Ford’s move in cutting off the possibility of advertising that could depict him negatively will most likely have an impact in the fight ahead.

It may also have a rebound effect federally and not in the way Ford intended.

The biggest third-party spenders in federal politics have been supporters of the Conservatives who load up on advertising to fight the Liberals.

If Ford’s plan works, the federal Liberals might be encouraged to replicate it. In that instance, the national Tories will lose out.

For now, all eyes are on Ontario.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Tory growth appears to be slowing. Canadians are asking about Andrew Scheer’s right-wing alliance with Doug Ford and Jason Kenney. That leaves an opening for the Liberals.

By Sheila Copps
Published first in The Hill Times on May 20, 2019.

OTTAWA—What is up with the CBC?

I woke up to a shocking CBC headline last week. It was an analysis of recent provincial election defeats stating, “Not since the Great Depression have more governments been defeated on one PM’s watch.”

The hyperbolic headline went on to state that if the Liberals lost the Thursday Newfoundland election, “that would make Trudeau’s term in office the bloodiest for an incumbent government in Canadian history.”

The analysis, by the CBC’s Éric Grenier, purported to be an opinion piece on the popularity swings of the current federal government.

It rehashed how many provincial governments had fallen during the past four years.

According to Grenier, Trudeau is to be tagged for the defeat of New Democratic premiers in Alberta and Manitoba, both of whom lost to the Tories.

Grenier fingers the prime minister for Liberal losses in Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia and Prince Edward Island.

The same morning the CBC “election feed” did not stop there. A second Grenier story claimed recent Green breakthroughs could redraw the electoral map.

That conclusion came from another analysis piece claiming the Greens could be heading for the mainland after storming Vancouver Island in the Nanaimo-Ladysmith Green byelection win.

The media spent weeks predicting Greens were poised to form government in Prince Edward Island, vaulting that story to worldwide attention. In the end, the Green Party formed official opposition, polling one point ahead of the Liberals in the popular vote.

Greens garnered 30.6 per cent of the vote compared to 36.5 for the Tories and 29.5 per cent for the Grits. It is pretty hard to explain a six-point vote gap on the same day multiple pollsters predicted a Green government.

When that did not materialize, the incorrect prediction was merely attributed to small samplings in pre-election surveys by local polling firms.

Grenier’s piece on Trudeau failed to mention a factor that loomed large in British Columbia, P.E.I., Ontario and Quebec Liberal takedowns. All four involved voters suffering one-party, multi-election fatigue.

In British Columbia’s case, the Liberals even won the popular vote. That was quite a shock, considering Grits had been in power in that province for 16 years. But the Greens made common cause with the New Democrats to replace the Liberals in a coalition arrangement.

In Ontario’s case, the Liberals had also been in power for 16 straight years. Premier Kathleen Wynne pulled off a surprise victory in the previous election but her personal unpopularity matched that of her predecessor when Doug Ford’s Conservatives toppled her government.

The same phenomenon was repeated in Quebec. With the exception of an 18-month interregnum period for the Parti Québécois, the Liberals had been in power in Quebec for 16 years.

And as for P.E.I., Liberals had dominated the province since premier Rob Ghiz was first elected in 2007. So 12 years of uninterrupted Liberal island rule ended with an unexpected Tory victory.

What is perhaps more surprising, is that after more than a decade in office, the Liberals were only one point behind “government-in-waiting” Greens.

So four provincial governments that had been in power for an average of 15 years were defeated in a “change” vote.

It is hardly a reason to claim Trudeau has authored a provincial “bloodbath.”

Reporting on polls is one thing.

But the growing propensity of pollsters to try and shape the narrative should be disturbing for every political watcher.

There is no doubt; a surge in Green support affects other parties. But one party at greater risk is the NDP.

In the last P.E.I. election, the NDP leader came fourth in his own riding and the party garnered only three per cent of the vote, a 70 per cent drop since 2015, when the combined Green-NDP vote was almost 22 per cent.

Considering the Liberal vote dropped 25 per cent, it is a pretty sure bet that the balance of the winning Green surge came from the Grits.

Even in victory, Prince Edward Island Conservatives lost one per cent in popular vote from 2015.

Disgruntled Liberals are not switching to the Tories.

Instead, they are choosing parties that offer a counterbalance to the backward Conservative agenda on issues like climate change, immigration and women’s reproductive choice.

Tory growth appears to be slowing. Canadians are asking about Andrew Scheer’s right-wing alliance with Doug Ford and Jason Kenney. That leaves an opening for the Liberals.

Trudeau needs to convince progressive voters that Liberals are the only antidote to a Scheer shift.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.