By SHEILA COPPS

First published in The Hill Times on Monday, May 15, 2017.

OTTAWA—The minority victory of the Liberal Party in British Columbia will shortly become a majority.

The nine-vote New Democratic Party margin in Courtenay-Comox will flip when the results of the military and absentee vote are counted. As the Liberal candidate was formerly the base commander in that riding before the election, he will surely lap the NDP to deliver a razor-thin majority to the Grits.

After 16 years in government, it is a credit to Premier Christy Clark’s campaign skills that the Liberals are even there at all.

And while the focus has been on her tenuous hold on government, the real story is the split vote on the left.

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne will be poring over these results, looking for clues as to how the Ontario Liberals can trump their hat trick in an election next June.

But the real power grab in the British Columbia election is that of the Green Party. With three new players in the legislature, their clear agenda on financing reform is a no-brainer.

Less clear is where the province goes on resource development. The Liberals were able to carve out a new base in rural British Columbia by promoting the link between jobs and energy.

The New Democrats, if they are ever to form the government, need to square that circle. But with the Greens nipping at their environmental heels, the path to government is less clear.

Much has been written about the majority three-peat of prime minister Jean Chrétien,

As part of his team, I would like to think that the combination of good government and financial management had a lot to do with his success. Chrétien also know when to step into an issue and when to merely brush it off with a casual quip. Who can forget the pepper-spray malapropism?

But another element that played in favour of the federal Liberals was the split on the left between the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party.

Until last week, such a split did not exist in British Columbia. Indeed, similar to the swing between the left and the right in France, British Columbia voters always managed to choose either extreme in any given election.

The arrival of the Green Party will change that scenario. Depending on the skill of leader Andrew Weaver, last week’s Green breakthrough could either be a flash in the pan or a game changer.

Federal counterpart Elisabeth May was publicly encouraging her provincial counterparts to make common cause with the NDP.

That is a great strategy for the Greens, as it provides a possible wedge into the block of environmental supporters that have historically voted for the New Dems. But it provides a huge risk to the traditional NDP base, because if the Greens look good, they garner support at the expense of the other party on the left.

Greens will argue, rightly so, that their platform is not left-leaning, but rather based on the conservative values of not consuming more than you can reasonable produce without damage to Mother Earth.

Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland was in Alaska last week, meeting with other members of the Arctic Council on the thorny issue of global warming.

If anyone needs a keen example of what happens to water levels when ice caps melt, they only have to review the recent havoc wreaked on eastern Canadian water levels.

But when the waters recede, and the insurance haggling commences, most Canadians vote with their pocketbook. And the party that can present the most reasonable prospect of economic growth will carry the day.

Clark’s resource development agenda will undoubtedly have to be reworked, given the makeup of the legislature.

But she is also sitting with an important advantage. In a hung parliament, the government gets to return to the people.

And with a growing split on the left, and the chance for the Greens to grow in numbers in their newfound role as kingmaker, Clark is probably already planning her next move.

Politics is where Clark shines. Her mid-campaign call to block transport of American coal likely carried her over the top.

The next year will be a harrowing game of political chess for all three parties. At the moment, the newfound strength of the Greens could actually set the stage for an environmental showdown and another election in the near term.

That scenario is a winning one for the Libs and the Greens.

New Democrats are left wondering how to unite the left.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

British Columbia Premier Christy Clark had to know what kind of reaction her Throne Speech critique of Alberta would provoke. She planned it because nothing detracts from internal political problems like a good neighbourhood dustup.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on February 15, 2016.

OTTAWA—When the going gets tough, the tough get slagging.

It is a political game as old as the hills. Politicians play it for the simple reason that it works.

British Columbia Premier Christy Clark had to know what kind of reaction her Throne Speech critique of Alberta would provoke. She planned it because nothing detracts from internal political problems like a good neighbourhood dustup.

The late Calgary mayor Ralph Klein went on to become Alberta’s most popular premier after he bluntly coined the phrase “let the eastern bastards freeze in the dark.”

During the national energy program, the federal Liberal government was so despised that it was easy to paint all easterners with the same brush.

Alberta Conservative politicians have been dining for years on the offal of that 35-year-old energy decision, initiated in the aftermath of two world oil shortages.

Even Alberta kids who weren’t born during the last century know about the terrible eastern plague visited on their province by the national government.

The bottom line is that picking fights, and continuing them long after they are relevant, works for politicians.

Politicians of all persuasions understand the power of engaging your citizens in a fight against a common enemy. Just ask Donald Trump. But what is good for politicians can be economically counterproductive.

Alberta is in trouble now, and it behooves all of us as Canadians to step in and support the province.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to roll out the first major infrastructure investments in Alberta was recognition that governments should help those who need it most.

Contrary to past history, last week’s interprovincial fight was started by another western province taking direct aim at Alberta’s economic record.

On the heels of a stinging credit downgrade, the calculated attack on Alberta was unconscionable. Why kick another province while it’s down? Isn’t that the time when we are supposed to stick together? Or has the country become so deeply fragmented that there is no such thing as the national interest?

One thing is for certain. Clark’s calculated cheap shot blew apart any notion of western solidarity.

One should not be too surprised. This is the same premier who rejected federal Senate reform overtures within minutes of being asked to join a new process.

Sadly, British Columbia and Saskatchewan have both been working overtime to encourage Alberta businesses to relocate.

Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, in a bid to buttress federal leadership credentials within his own party, is ready and willing to fight all comers.

As Alberta is facing tough times, you would think neighbouring provinces could come together in aid of a friend in need. The country banded together to support Saskatchewan during the great drought of 2001-2002.

Today it appears that filial felicity is dead. There is a lot more ink to be spilled and political gains to be made in attacking our neighbours than in supporting them.

One lone voice reminded us how Alberta was there to support an unemployed workforce when the cod fishery collapsed in Newfoundland in the late nineties.

As the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s Rex Murphy eloquently recalled, thousands of laid-off fellow Newfoundlanders found jobs in the Alberta oilfields. Some say Fort McMurray boasts more expats from The Rock than native Albertans.

Clark’s calculated attack left the door open for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to show some real national leadership.

By calling on provinces to come together in times of trouble, Trudeau could remind all of us of a greater Canadian value.

Quebec and Ontario have recently formalized their relationship, with joint cabinet meetings and ministers cooperating on common economic goals and environmental issues. Instead of fighting each other for a small piece of the pie, they are trying to figure out how almost 21 million citizens can better bake a bigger pie.

Quebec and Ontario are stronger when they work together. They avoid cannibalizing each other in the hunt for international investment. Alberta and British Columbia need to follow their example.

Individually, each province loses when it fails to engage its neighbours. The opportunities presented by abolishing interprovincial barriers and working together on pipeline, energy and other economic collaborations are much more promising than what can be accomplished by building walls.

Clark, a combative politician, is adept at talking out of both sides of her mouth. The same week that she deliberately introduced a nasty polemic into the government’s throne speech, the premier claimed at a fundraiser that Albertans were her province’s best friends in Canada.

With friends like that, bring on the enemies.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.