Controversy inside the Conservative federal leadership race will have a spillover effect into the provincial elections in Ontario and Quebec.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on March 21, 2022.

OTTAWA—By summer’s end, the Canadian political landscape could change dramatically.

Ontario is into a provincial election in less than two months, smack in the middle of a national Conservative leadership race.

Quebec must have an election by Oct. 3, and next month Alberta’s controversial premier faces an internal review which could plunge his party into another fight.

Federal and provincial parties are separate, but the voting public sees them all as a single, homogenous mass.

So, controversy inside the Conservative federal leadership race will have a spillover effect into the provincial elections in Ontario and Quebec.

In Ontario, the premier has already stated that he will remain neutral and none of his ministers will be involved in any campaign.

That is bad news for Jean Charest, as the leadership list of Caroline Mulroney, whose family has deep ties with the former Quebec premier, could be very valuable.

Charest’s only path to victory is to saturate Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada with enough votes to overcome his socially conservative deficit in the west.

But even though Mulroney herself cannot get involved, there is nothing stopping key organizers from enlisting volunteers and voters for Charest.

The organizing skills of former provincial Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown are well known. He could secure a base for a more centrist vote which would likely end up in Charest’s camp in a frontrunner’s fight.

Brown has no love for the premier, as Doug Ford actually came to office after Brown resigned following two allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denied and for which CTV recently expressed “regrets” over some inaccurate details in its story. The Brown exit was ugly, and paved the way for Ford to beat Christine Elliott in a subsequent provincial leadership contest.

Any reference to the hate-hate relationship between Brown and Ford will not help the premier in the key ridings in Brampton. Mississauga and Scarborough where Brown has many supporters who would not likely support the premier in a general election.

As for Quebec, issues within the Tory federal leadership could definitely create some blowback in the provincial campaign. The bill that forced teachers to choose between religious headgear and their jobs has caused quite a stir across the country.

However, it is largely supported in Quebec, so attacks on Bill 21 by national Conservatives will simply reinforce the re-election chances of Premier François Legault.

Charest will have to tread carefully there because he needs to secure his Quebec base, but cannot afford to alienate the rest of the party on a divisive religious issue.

Alberta’s Jason Kenney, already hobbled by a popularity plunge in his home province, has historically tried to play a brokerage role in the federal campaign.

But given he has so many Alberta problems, the usual cadre of candidates lined up to seek his blessing will definitely decrease in this leadership campaign.

Ford is facing the voters on June 2, but 25 per cent of his current caucus has decided not to run again.

The most recent announcement by Christine Elliott, former leadership rival, that she is stepping down, does not augur well for the party’s election chances.

Most seasoned politicians can smell a change in the wind. When they decide not to reoffer, it is because they think their chances of losing are greater than winning.

Of course, they usually cite family or personal reasons for resigning, but in the end, a party on its way out loses more incumbent members than a party in the ascendancy.

Ford’s saving grace at the moment is that the New Democrats and Liberals are in a virtual tie as to who the replacement should be.

That being said, the Liberals have the edge as the NDP polls heavier in certain urban constituencies like Hamilton and Windsor, but it’s presence in rural Ontario is much weaker. That skews the numbers because an equal vote actually means more seats for the Liberals, in the same way that an equal federal Conservative/Liberal vote means more seats for the grits.

By October, we will likely have at least two new premiers in Alberta and Ontario, which also has federal repercussions.

In Ontario’s case, voters like to have political bookends at the federal and provincial scene. So, if the Liberals win the provincial election, it will open more doors for a Tory federal victory in the next election.

In Alberta, it is a Tory/NDP dance, and a provincial win for the New Democrats would provide energy and workers for the next federal election.

The only certainty in Canadian politics this year is change.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Doug Ford is banking on the fact that as the threat wanes, so will the political power of the vaccine question and he wants anti-vaxxers on his side in next June’s provincial election.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on November 8, 2021.

OTTAWA—Erin O’Toole has friends in high places.

And now, Ontario and Quebec provincial governments have taken a page from the O’Toole playbook. They claim to support the need to vaccinate all Ontarians, but have exempted those who work in health-care settings from mandatory vaccinations.

Notwithstanding the sage advice of his former leader that all Conservative MPs should be vaccinated, O’Toole won’t even tell us how many members of his caucus refuse to follow his vaccination advice.

If he can’t convince caucus members to get the jab, how can he convince the country?

Apparently, Quebec and Ontario leaders believe that an individual anti-vaccination right is more important than keeping hospital and extended care patients safe.

Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca accused Ontario Premier Doug Ford of putting anti-vaxers ahead of cancer patients. He was right.

How else to explain the spineless decisions to exempt health-care workers from vaccinations in work settings where they are supposed to be taking care of the most vulnerable people?

Quebec even had a date for implementation of the mandatory rule, extended it, and then cancelled it.

The Ontario premier defended his decision by saying that he was “not prepared to jeopardize the delivery of care to millions of Ontarians.”

Ford even went so far as to claim that once British Columbia required a mandatory vaccine, some surgeries were cancelled because of a shortage of workers. He didn’t mention how many have already been cancelled because of COVID outbreaks.

The premier also claimed tens of thousands of health-care workers could potentially leave if the province mandated vaccines.

In Quebec’s case, the government has approved a two-tier workforce, with all new entrants into the health-care field facing mandatory vaccines while current employees are exempt. Exempt employees are required to be tested thrice weekly, and according to the Quebec Health ministry, some 5,000 of unvaccinated workers are in direct ongoing contact with patients.

So, in both Ontario and Quebec, the politicians have ignored advice from public health officials to promote mandatory vaccinations in settings dealing with vulnerable, hospitalized people.

These political decisions had zero support in the scientific community. The Ontario Science Advisory Table argued that mandatory vaccinations would increase safety and reduce the risk of staffing disruptions.

The Ontario Medical Association also called on the government to mandate vaccinations in the health-care field. The physicians’ call for mandatory vaccinations was joined by the voice of the Registered Nurses Association of Ontario, which said the vast majority of health-care workers want a mandated vaccine to protect themselves and their patients.

Last week’s dual decisions on vaccinations will ultimately put more patients at risk.

One-hundred and twenty of Ontario’s 141 hospitals signed an Ontario Hospital Association letter calling on the government to mandate vaccines.

The vast majority of medical advice provided to both premiers claimed that the risk from unvaccinated workers far outweighs that of anti-vaxxer labour shortages.

Most patients have already been hit with cancelled surgeries and delayed tests. My requisitioned cancer test was delayed for one year because of the health-care stresses brought on by COVID. When the premier says he is worried about cancellations, why doesn’t he use all the tools at his disposal to prevent another wave of COVID hitting the province.

Listening to the health experts would be a good place to start. It was positively embarrassing to watch his health minister struggle to explain the reasons behind this crazy decision when the premier himself simply provided Ontarians with a written statement.

The look on Christine Elliott’s face made it clear that this was a plan coming from the premier’s office.

At the end of the day, the vast majority of Ontarians are in favour of mandatory vaccinations. But Ford probably believes that the squeaky wheel that got his grease will be more motivated to political action on the matter.

Ford, like Erin O’Toole, is also leading a right-wing party that considers mandatory vaccines a violation of individual freedoms.

O’Toole won’t even convince his own caucus members to get the jab, so he can hardly be expected to force health-care workers to do likewise.

In the end, O’Toole’s refusal to promote vaccine mandates was a major factor in the national Liberal victory.

Ford is banking on the fact that as the threat wanes, so will the political power of the vaccine question.

The premier wants anti-vaxxers on his side in next June’s provincial election.

Ford may be dead wrong, with the emphasis on dead.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.