NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has three months to ponder his future before he goes before a scheduled confirmation vote in April. Chances are Mulcair will receive enough support from his party to fight another election.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on January 18, 2016.

OTTAWA—All is outwardly calm in the good ship New Democrat.

NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has three months to ponder his future before he goes before a scheduled confirmation vote in April. Chances are Mulcair will receive enough support from his party to fight another election.

If there were to be a movement against him, it would already have started getting organized and some dissident federal members would be going public.

That hasn’t happened. Even high-profile members who lost their seats are making the kinds of noises one makes in support of a leader who will live to fight another day.

Unlike the two other main parties, dissatisfied New Democrats have never run their leaders out of town. That may also have something to do with the historical reality that they have never actually won an election.

In past Parliaments, the third party was happy to increase its numbers in the House, hoping for enough influence to tilt the government agenda to the left.

Even during the heady years of Ed Broadbent’s time in power, there were never more than 43 NDP members in the House of Commons. They weren’t expected to form government. Their job was to be the conscience of Parliament.

But all that changed when Jack Layton launched the orange wave that vaulted the New Democrats to official opposition status. With le bon Jack at the helm, the party got a real toehold in Quebec, which was supposed to be its launch pad to government.

The New Democrats also got a boost from governing Conservatives, who understood full well that Tory wins depended on a divided opposition.

When Layton passed away, Prime Minister Stephen Harper abandoned precedent and approved a state funeral in Layton’s hometown of Toronto. That event, and the lingering Layton legacy, helped solidify the new official opposition status on the road to government.

When Mulcair won the hotly-contested nomination against party favourite Brian Topp the table was laid for an historic change in the Canadian political status quo.

Then Alberta New Democrats turned the country on its ear with the election of the first NDP premier in history. Thomas Mulcair’s team was so close they could almost taste it.

They designed and carried out a frontrunner campaign and positioned Mulcair as the prime minister in waiting.

New Democrats were putting together a transition team, consulting former Privy Council clerks on how to structure governments. They, and most of the country, believed they could finally form government.

But the front-running strategy turned out to be the ball and chain that took Mulcair down. The prime minster in waiting couldn’t afford to take any chances. He certainly did not dare tell the country that he was supportive of running deficits in government.

So Mulcair tied his fate to that of Stephen Harper, echoing economic statements that sounded eerily like the Conservatives. At one point, someone even trotted out an old video of Mulcair, when he was a Quebec Liberal minister, singing the praises of Margaret Thatcher.

Mulcair himself, in an effort to appear prime ministerial, instead seemed stiff and distant in debates, failing to connect with voters hungry for change.

Just because Mulcair lost one campaign, doesn’t mean he is destined to lose the next one. The same tenacity and brains that served him so well as official opposition leader will be key in giving the third party renewed vigour and influence.

But the fact that he came so close and failed will haunt his party.

If you are that close to the brass ring, can you afford to keep the leader whose election strategy failed so miserably?

On the other hand, if NDP faithful cherish their role as the conscience of the country, winning is always less important than staying true to principles.

Many New Democrats are privately muttering that the reason the campaign failed was that the party gave up on its socialist roots.

Ontario Provincial MPP Cheri DiNovo is the only one to have publicly called for Mulcair’s head, but there are many more who share her view. Mulcair is actively working to bring them onside.

He has already begun, rebranding the party as the progressive opposition.

But if socialists’ flirtation with power proves too bewitching, New Democrats will dump Mulcair for a fresh face.

That may not happen.

NDPers believe their party is different because of its ideology purity.

Principles are more important than power. If so, Mulcair will leave the party convention happy.

His political adversaries will be smiling too.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.