By SHEILA COPPS

First published on Monday, August 14, 2017 in The Hill Times.

OTTAWA—Canada’s effort to include climate change in the North American Free Trade negotiations is worth a try.

But it is likely to get the same kind of reaction from American President Donald Trump that he levels to all climate comers.

In Trump world, climate change is in the same category as the real media world of fake news. It is part of a hidden agenda by political elites to ignore the wishes of ordinary people and Trump will have none of it.

A 700-page report on climate change, co-authored by 17 United States government agencies that have been tasked with writing the National Climate Assessment for the past quarter century, will have no influence on the president.

Their scientific analysis, prepared for presidential review, is unequivocal.

Excerpts of the unanimous report were published in The New York Times last week.

At first, the newspaper was claiming the scoop of a leaked document, but two days later, a correction clarified that the material had been publicly available since last January. The White House jumped on the false claim, as the president correctly identified an opening for his ongoing allegations about fake news, including claims about climate change.

But the global warming report was not a media product. It was the result of scientific research by multiple American government agencies that concluded the long-term link between climate change and human activities is “unambiguous.”

“There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record that can explain the observed changes in climate,” the report says, drawing its conclusions from thousands of studies. “Evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans.”

Trump will respond to the substance of the report next week, but it is unlikely that he will embrace any conclusions.

The Canada government’s plan to replicate the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement inclusion of climate change in the NAFTA is ambitious, popular and likely doomed to failure.

Unlike the United States, the European Union has been leading the charge on greenhouse gas reductions for years. German Chancellor Angela Merkel authored the precursor to the Kyoto Accord when she served as Germany’s environment minister and chaired the first United Nations Climate Conference in Berlin in 1995.

Germany has been at the forefront of greenhouse gas emission reductions, far outstripping commitments made and delivered by Canada in the last two decades. The CETA template is definitely worth copying, but it is unlikely to get any traction in trade discussions with neighbours south of the border.

Trump will be hard pressed to embrace science, given he has long characterized the climate change claim as a hoax. He will simply dismiss the report, characterizing it as a product of the very Washington swamp mentality that he is trying to drain.

Increasing evidence that forest fires and floods are directly linked to warming climate need not disrupt Trump’s obstinacy.

He cares little of the study’s claim that even if humans stop spewing heat-trapping gases today, the world will warm another 0.3 degrees Celsius over today’s temperatures.

So the chance of incorporating the report into an American government strategy on climate change is slim to none.

There is another factor that puts the Canadian desire to include climate change in NAFTA at risk.

Mexico, which has a heavily petroleum-based economy, is not likely to be a great supporter of climate change inclusion either.

An American refusal to embrace climate change could also negatively impact the Canadian government’s aggressive carbon pricing targets and greenhouse gas reduction plan.

Business leaders have been notoriously slow to recognize the reality of climate change economic costs, notwithstanding domestic examples of severe storms, fires and floods.

They will plead their case that the integration of the two economies is so intertwined that a weakening of the American commitment will necessitate a similar move by Canada.

Ironically, an integrated NAFTA approach would actually be the most successful way to tackle common climate problems in a shared air space.

That proposal has been hanging around since the creation North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation back in 1994. The trilateral Commission for Environmental Cooperation was launched as a result of the first NAFTA agreement.

Almost 25 years ago, the CEC explored the possibility of having trilateral air agreement that would regulate automobile emission standards and shared air sheds.

Canada, the U.S. and Mexico were unable to reach a consensus then. It is unlikely the three amigos will change their minds.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By SHEILA COPPS

First published in The Hill Times on Monday, February 20, 2017.

OTTAWA—It was Canada’s hour in the European Parliament last week.

Even those parties who voted against the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement were compelled to proclaim their affection for our country with hand-held signs that said, “Yes to Canada. No to CETA.”

In the end, the vote was not even close, even though parties on the left and the right were opposed.

Some 58 per cent of European parliamentarians endorsed the deal, which sets the stage for speedy implementation.

In one sense, Prime Minster Justin Trudeau has U.S. President Donald Trump to thank for the solid show of support.

Since the new American president’s inauguration a month ago, the United States administration has been systemically threatening to close borders, round up refugees and cancel international commercial agreements.

Even though American courts have slowed down some of the initiatives, the obvious message of closed America borders has not been lost on the rest of the world.

Contrary to the core group of Trump supporters, most other jurisdictions feel alienated and confused by the administration’s early direction.

European support for the free trade deal with Canada actually grew because the agreement became synonymous with an anti-Trump approach. One European parliamentarian, Artis Pabriks from the European People’s Party made an oblique reference to the plan to wall off Mexico. “Together we can build bridges, instead of a wall, for the prosperity of our citizens. CETA will be a lighthouse for future trade deals all over the world.”

While Trump vows to close borders and keep foreigners out, the Canadian prime minister is welcoming refugees and signing trade deals with Europe and beyond.

Perhaps the ongoing chaos in Washington could actually work in Canada’s favour.

Justin Trudeau’s meeting with the president appeared to establish a good working relationship, while underscoring different perspectives on the Syrian refugee crisis. Trudeau was able to make his point, without making an enemy, and by all accounts last week’s White House visit was a success.

It should have been the launch of what could have been a very good week for Trump.

In less than seven days, he welcomed three world leaders and reinforced his close personal friendship with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom Trump addressed with the familiar nickname, Bibi.

Instead, the president was dodging questions about the alleged ongoing relationship between several members of his campaign team and senior officials in the Russian government.

By mid-week, one cabinet member had been fired, and another nominee, facing a rough confirmation ride, decided to voluntarily withdraw himself from contention as the secretary of labor.

Trump’s press secretary repeatedly made it clear that the boss had lost confidence in National Security adviser Michael Flynn after Flynn misled vice-president Mike Pence as to the nature of his pre-inauguration discussions with the Russian ambassador.

After cutting Flynn loose, Trump then blamed the whole mess on the media and leaks from the intelligence community. “I think he’s been treated very, very unfairly by the media—as I call it, the fake media, in many cases,” Trump proclaimed, the day after he dumped his friend.

It is normal for a new administration in any country to experience a few hiccups in the early days.

But the almost daily circus in Washington is beyond anything most reporters and political watchers have ever observed.

That is tough for Trump. But it also means that neighbouring countries like Canada could benefit from the renewed world interest in our similarities and differences.

An open border policy makes Canada a welcoming place for refugees. It also means international businesses can consider investing and locating in Canada, while keeping close to the American market.

We are within driving distance of the 325 million consumers who are fuelling America’s prosperity and we still benefit from relatively open borders with the Untied States.

Our links of geography and history make us fast friends and good neighbours. At a time when the United States seems likely to build more walls, Canada could position itself as the ideal way-station into North America.

Last week’s CETA deal certainly sounded an optimistic note for more trade between Canada and roughly 500 million Europeans.

It also tempered negative fallout from the decision by the United Kingdom to exit the European Union.

The agreement sent a resounding message that not all countries around the world are closing their borders.

And while the Israeli prime minister was in Washington praising up Trump on the art of the deal, Trudeau was actually getting a bigger deal done.

 
Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era Cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.