By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on December 16, 2024.

OTTAWA—The most popular guessing game in Ottawa these days is how to stare down a bully.

U.S. president-elect Donald Trump lost no time in poking fun at his favourite punching bag, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, by posting a social media message suggesting it was great having dinner with “Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada. I look forward to seeing the Governor again soon so that we continue our in depth talks on tariffs and trade, the results of which will be truly spectacular for all.”

Ontario Premier Doug Ford had a soft response: “I am sure not thinking of Justin Trudeau at midnight so if he is thinking of Justin at midnight, it’s probably a good relationship.”

It wasn’t the first crack that Trump has taken at Canada recently. After the prime minister met him at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said in an interview on Meet the Press that Canada could become the 51st state.

“We’re subsidizing Canada to the tune of over $100-billion a year … if we are going to subsidize them, why not become a state?”

Trump’s comments on subsidies are incorrect. He is referring to a trade imbalance between Canada and the United States, largely driven by the sale of Canadian electricity and gas to the U.S. If those sales are cancelled—which is the rationale behind imposing a tariff on incoming goods—much of America’s manufacturing production would be stalled due to lack of energy.

The U.S. needs Canada’s energy, and it also needs our water. We are sitting on 20 per cent of the world’s supply of fresh water while several states in the U.S. are suffering from a water shortage.

So Canada has some cards to play in this tit-for-tat verbal slugfest. Trudeau is getting lots of advice on how to deal with it.

Peter Donolo, former communications advisor to then-prime minister Jean Chrétien, told the CBC last week Trudeau should stand tough.

“It isn’t the first time in Canadian history that the possibility of a union with the United States has been on the table. It’s a mistake to laugh it off … this is an insult to Canada. This is the guy’s [Trump] MO …. we have had 150 years as an independent country … what starts off as a joke is a seed planted … our leaders should push back and not make light of it. … given Donald Trump’s own history of lawlessness … when we let Trump get away with stuff … all he does is do it again harder.”

Donolo also referred to past Canada-U.S. relations, from the charm offensive then-prime minister Brian Mulroney used on then-president George Bush, to Chrétien’s decision to refuse the American invitation to join the invasion of Iraq.

He characterized the two as the suck-up versus the stand-up approach.

Donolo also decried provincial premiers for “sucking up” to Trump, specifically citing the premiers of Quebec and Alberta: “history proves that when you cave to a strongman all it does is whet his appetite for more.”

Provincial premiers are supposed to be working with the prime minister on a united strategy to dampen Trump’s appetite for tariffs. But Donolo’s point is that if the country looks like it is running scared, Trump is the kind of bully who will simply increase tariffs and put more pressure on the Canadian economy.

The U.S. president-elect’s instability is something Canadians will have to learn to live with. But we certainly cannot allow ourselves to be bullied into submission by denying our status as an independent country.

Statistics came out last week showing that the U.S. has the highest health care costs in the world. Meanwhile, our nation has been able to shape a system where every Canadian who is sick can go to the hospital with no fear of being turned away because of money.

Canada’s level of gun violence is seven times lower than that of America’s. And while the Canadian government has just introduced legislation to further reduce assault rifle access, the U.S. cannot seem to get past its obsession with second amendment gun-toting rights adopted almost 250 years ago.

The gun-toting path chosen by Americans for their own country is definitely not one that Canadians would follow.

We will not be bullied into denying our identity, nor should our leaders be trying to assuage the ignorant comments of the American president.

Trump’s backhanded denial of Canada’s existence as a country is no joke.

And we need to push back—hard.

That is the only language that a bully will understand.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

OTTAWA—President Donald Trump’s free-range press conference last week simply confirmed the obvious.

He suffers from a narcissistic personality disorder that distorts reality and creates his own alternative truth.

The first sign of a potential disorder was his claim that world leaders were laughing with him when he told the United Nations that he was amongst the greatest presidents in the history of his country.

That claim prompted a collective guffaw from an astonished audience, to which the president sheepishly remarked that he did not expect that reaction.

But in a subsequent effort to explain away the embarrassment, he claimed that the group was actually laughing with him.

It was as though they were sharing a joke together, but instead they were laughing at him because the incredible pomposity of the president of the United States has made him a joke on the international stage.

He obviously believes his alternative truth. Trump has spent so much of his presidential energy preaching to the converted that he may have no idea of the negative world reaction to his bluster.

Politicians usually spend too much time in cocoons of their own making. The closer you get to the top, the less you are exposed to comments from those who disagree with you. Power has a way of shutting out genuine dissent, as people usually tell a leader what she or he wants to hear.

But a good politician will try and stay close to the people. In Trump’s case, that means the same people that got him into the White House.

Hillary Clinton referred to them as a “basket of deplorables.” That comment probably cost her the presidency but there is truth in the characterization of certain alt-right, neo-Nazis who support the president.

Trump’s press performance did not stop there. He moved on to personally attack key Canadian negotiators of the North American Free Trade Agreement. His focus zeroed in on Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland. He reiterated his annoyance by deliberately snubbing the prime minister at the UN luncheon.

The awkward moment when Justin Trudeau tried to shake Trump’s hand, was caught on camera. Trudeau tried to make the best of a bad situation, explaining away the obvious slight as simply a preoccupation with the papers Trump was reading. But the president’s continued personal attacks on Canada belied Trudeau’s calm exterior.

Trump holds most of the cards in the NAFTA game. And while public bravado is the only tack the Canadian team can take, internally the team must be roiling about the possibility of economic fallout from the absence of a deal.

Trump made a vocal threat to impose heavy excise taxes Canadians autos. That move would definitely send the Canadian economy into a tailspin.

But to hear Trump publicly attack Canada, at the same time he is extolling his relationship with Kim Jung Un is simply too much.

Trump’s numerous late-night tweets are vicious but short, but the press conference last week laid bare the thinking of a president who really does like North Korea more than Canada.

During the press conference, Trump said he would continue to support the Kurdish people because they fought side by side with Americans in Iraq.

But Trump’s knowledge of history must be limited. Canada fought beside the United States in two world wars, and has been a greater friend to that country than any other partner.

In addition, our defence forces have worked side by side in Afghanistan and other hot spots around the world.

As far as Trump is concerned, that pales in comparison to cows.

Trump has made it very clear from the beginning that the farmers in Wisconsin are waiting for a return on their election investment.

The Americans have their own forms of agricultural protectionism but they see Canada’s system of supply management as a NAFTA hill to die on.

Trudeau and Freeland will be loathe to ignore the signals. Their commitment to the Canadian dairy industry stands firm, but they certainly cannot afford to throw the rest of Canada’s economy under the bus.

So while the public posture is firm, negotiators need to put something on the table that will allow Trump to boast about his alternative win.

That may not be too hard to do. He has consistently claimed victory with North Korea even though most observers see little progress on the denuclearization front.

It is frightening to see Trump’s alternative truth exposed on the world stage.

But that is the world he lives in.

By SHEILA COPPS

First published on Monday, August 28, 2017 in The Hill Times.

OTTAWA—Damned if you do. Damned if you don’t.

Such is the dilemma facing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with the increase in ambulatory migrants arriving from the United States in the wake of American removal rumblings.

News reports say that more than 7,500 people have streamed across the Canada-United States border in the past three months. If that continues, it will mean an additional 30,000 potential refugees annually added to the numbers Canada has already accepted from Syria and elsewhere.

But before we start ringing the alarm bells, let’s draw a small comparison with refugee numbers in major European destinations.

According to the International Organization for Migration, 2015 figures reveal about one million migrants arrived on European shores by sea and an additional 34,900 by land. The European border patrol authorities estimate a higher figure of 1.8 million during the same period.

According to a BBC documentary, Germany received the highest number of refugees in that year. Hungary actually had the largest number relative to population, absorbing nearly 1,800 refugees per 100,000 people.

That figure underscores the relative absorption capacity by population, which is likely the best indicator of how easily newcomers will be able to settle in.

The second highest absorption rate was actually Sweden with 1,667 refugees per 100,000 people.

Germany, with the highest rate of refugees in sheer numbers, received 587 people per 100,000. After all the Brexit fuss, the United Kingdom actually only welcomed 60 refugees per 100,000. The average for the whole of Europe was 260 per 100,000.

Compare those numbers to this summer’s Haitian influx, and you can draw your own conclusions.

If arrivals continue at the current pace, the country will receive 30,000 people in a year, in addition to other refugee applicants. That represents an absorption rate of 111 refugees per 100,000 population, less than half of the European average. Compare that with nearly 1,800 for Hungary and you can see that Canada’s commitment is not as robust as we like to think.

Of course, the Haitian influx is in addition to the Syrian refugee commitment and the general processing of immigrants via family reunification and business migration.

But even adding in the 25,000 Syrian refugees the Trudeau government admitted in its first few months in power, the country still ends up at 273 refugees per 100,000, which is less than half of what Germany has received.

Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel characterized the influx as a “crisis” and both opposition parties blamed the migration spike on a seven-month-old tweet from the prime minister.

Trudeau’s #WelcometoCanada missive coincided with an American immigration crackdown announced on Twitter by President Donald Trump. Trump’s move was eventually overturned by the courts. Rempel called the Trudeau counter-tweet “irresponsible.”

I doubt many Canadians would agree with that accusation. If anything, Canadians are proud of our reputation as a welcoming place, and Trudeau’s January tweet was a breath of fresh air compared to the wall-building and door-closing going on south of the border.

Trudeau’s message of welcome was heard by the whole world, including investors, international students, and others who were analyzing alternatives to American destinations in the face of the crackdown.

Canada’s robust economic growth is probably due, in part, to that viral tweet.

Rempel is careful to claim she does not oppose asylum claims but is speaking out because of the prime minister’s “spectacular failure” in managing the process.

Conservatives must tread lightly on their accusations, because by overstating their criticisms, they run the risk of being accused of mirroring the anti-immigrant stance embraced by the American right.

The sputtering of alt-right demonstrations across Canada last week will likely encourage the Tories to shy away from appearing to oppose immigration. As the Parti Québécois government discovered when it tried to win an election on whipping up division through a Quebec Values Charter, political extremism comes at a price.

Most Quebecers, and Canadians, are proud of our reputation as a welcoming country that can accommodate newcomers and turn immigration into an economic asset.

The government needs to stay the course, and proactively manage the processing of refugees, including accelerating the pace of work permits.

All that to say that the current summer crisis, largely manufactured by a slow domestic news cycle, is not a crisis at all but a trend which good planning and border processes should be able to easily handle.

Opposition parties may try to pin this on the prime minister but they should be wary of success.

An accusation of welcoming the world is one that Trudeau would savour.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.