By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on June 26, 2023.

OTTAWA—The four federal byelections last week sent a definite change message.

This time, the call for change went not to the prime minister, but to the leader of the Conservative Party.

Those byelections on June 19 saw the Tories’ percentage of the vote fall in three of the four ridings.

The Conservatives were not even close to being in the running in Winnipeg South Centre, Man., and their victory narrowed to a mere five per cent in Oxford, Ont., one of Ontario’s safest Tory ridings.

That close result was in stark contrast to the 2021 federal election, when the Conservatives in that riding were at 47 per cent of the vote compared to only 20 per cent for the Liberals.

The good news for the Conservatives was the poor performance of People’s Party of Canada (PPC) Leader Maxime Bernier in the Tory stronghold of Portage—Lisgar, Man.

In 2021, the PPC garnered their best national showing in that constituency, winning 21.58 per cent of the vote. With Bernier running this time, they dropped to 17.2 per cent.

The Tories’ right flank could be damaged by Bernier. On the money front, in the last quarter of 2022, the PPC experienced its best non-election fundraising quarter ever, raising $725,293, not far from the $866,505 donated to the Green Party.

But the Tory left flank is in deeper disarray.

The Oxford battle wound was self-inflicted, as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre parachuted his chosen candidate into a riding where outgoing MP Dave MacKenzie was promoting his own daughter.

The internal party situation got so ugly that MacKenzie endorsed local Liberal candidate David Hilderley after accusing his party of rigging the nomination results.

It is difficult to read much into the shift in the Oxford vote because it was prompted more by internal infighting than by a popularity spike for the Liberals.

The presence of winning candidate Arpan Khanna, a co-chair of Poilievre’s successful leadership campaign and a lawyer who practices in Mississauga, Ont., turned the riding nomination into an internal battle.

The result could simply be a political one-off, but Poilievre doesn’t appear to be changing his strategy in his take-no-prisoners approach to electioneering.

His tactic may delight his hardline supporters, but it is certainly not helping him with moderate Tories.

Another political slap was levelled at the Conservative leader last week when former Progressive Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney praised Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during an Atlantic economic forum in Antigonish, N.S.

Mulroney hailed Trudeau’s leadership on big issues like COVID-19 and free trade, and said that those issues are what he will be remembered for, not for “the trivia and the trash and the rumours that make the rounds in Ottawa.”

Mulroney’s comments were noteworthy, not just for what he said, but also what he didn’t say. The former leader with the largest electoral majority in Canadian history did not even mention the name ‘Poilievre’, instead focusing his criticism on the tone of politics today.

But the message was not lost on anyone. If there is one person responsible for the negative tone in Parliament today, it is Poilievre.

The New Democrats saw their vote percentage fall in all of the byelections. That must also be a cause for concern, as their role in supporting the government’s agenda on progressive social items like dental care and pharmacare appears to be going unrewarded.

That conclusion presents a dilemma for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, because if he extricates his party from the agreement, it would likely prompt a quick election. The NDP can’t afford a quick vote unless the party can show there is political momentum in their direction.

Instead, the general analysis of the byelection patterns shows voters deciding between the Liberals and the Conservatives, edging out any chance for New Democratic growth.

The Green Party’s candidate for co-leader, Jonathan Pedneault, was also roundly trounced in the Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, Que., byelection that saw former Liberal president Anna Gainey elected by a majority vote.

Most of the opposition votes were split equally among the Greens, the NDP and the Conservatives.

General elections are usually dependent on the popularity of the government, not the strength of the opposition. If there is a national desire for change, that is a difficult wave to reverse.

But if the call for change is focused on the person who wants to replace the prime minister, that could complicate the narrative.

Last year, Mulroney warned Poilievre that he would have to moderate his rhetoric if he wants to win.

Mulroney and the byelections last week reinforced a message of moderation.

It remains to be seen whether Poilievre will listen.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

In reality, the Tories did not lose vote share during the byelection. Their candidate, police officer Ron Chhinzer, matched his predecessor by garnering more than 37 per cent of the vote. The real surprise was the drop in the NDP vote. 

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on December 19, 2022.

OTTAWA—The Mississauga mashup turned out to be a one-sided affair. Liberal candidate Charles Sousa rolled over his opponents with support from the majority of voters. 

Much attention has been paid to the Liberal-Conservative fight, but with less than five per cent of the vote, the New Democrats also received a sobering pre-Christmas message.

In the heart of suburban Toronto, the New Democrats are bleeding support.

That certainly damages their leader’s strategy of joining with the Liberals for a progressive agenda in the hopes that voters might reward NDP co-operation. 

It also changes the vote-splitting dynamic that has delivered two successive minority governments to the Liberals.

The results certainly gave the prime minister a spring in his step in the final sitting days of the 2022 Parliament. 

His speech to the 3,000 Liberals gathered at their annual Christmas Party was a lively prelude of what we can expect on the campaign trail.

There was no reference to the third party, but much attention paid to the main opponent, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. 

Trudeau brought the audience to its feet when he challenged the Conservative leader’s recent statement that “Canada is broken.” Trudeau also made specific reference to how much money Canadians would have lost had they followed Poilievre’s advice to bypass the Canadian currency system in favour of bitcoin. 

Trudeau’s most compelling message was focused on poverty reduction and Indigenous reconciliation. 

He underscored the benefits of the new Liberal national daycare agreement that renders childcare more accessible and permits more women to work outside the home during their children’s early years. 

Trudeau’s positive message on the importance of equality and social responsibility electrified the audience. Liberals responded with a chant “Four more years.”

And the crowd applauded most warmly when the prime minister introduced his newest Member of Parliament from Mississauga-Lakeshore. 

If that riding is a portent of things to come, Liberals have every reason to be beaming. 

In reality, the Tories did not lose vote share during the Dec. 12 byelection. 

Their candidate, police officer Ron Chhinzer, matched his predecessor by garnering more than 37 per cent of the vote. 

The real surprise was the drop in the NDP vote. Back in 2021, their candidate received almost 10 per cent of the vote, finishing with 9.8 per cent support. This time, they appealed to less than five per cent, cutting their vote in half. 

The NDP is not in contention in that riding, but that party’s strength or weakness can either spell victory or defeat for the Tories or Liberals.  

If the NDP numbers were to hold in a general election, they would deliver a majority government to the Liberals. 

In the case of the Tories, Poilievre did not visit the riding, while the prime minister and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh campaigned for their respective candidates. 

The Conservatives also chose a rather bizarre campaign tactic. Instead of focusing in on building name recognition for their candidate, most of their messaging was focused on the Liberal candidate.

They erected posters attacking Sousa and linking him to former Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne.

Sousa benefited from Conservative messaging. His name was plastered all over the riding, courtesy of the Conservatives.  

Poilievre needs to go back to the drawing board. Maybe he has gotten the message because he has finally decided to be more available to the mainstream press.

His decision to open up his final pre-Christmas caucus was so unusual that it actually made news itself. 

By staying away from the byelection, Poilievre was hoping to avoid criticism if Conservatives lost the race.

But as Trudeau told the Liberal Christmas gathering, the leader is always accountable, whether the news is good or bad, most especially when the news is bad.

Sousa was a much stronger candidate than his Conservative opponent. As a former Ontario finance minister, he is certainly cabinet material whereas Chhinzer’s background as a police gang expert does necessarily lend itself to political leadership.

However, the recruitment of candidates is also a harbinger of how well a party is doing.  When star candidates like Sousa are jumping on board, it usually means their party is in the ascendancy.

If the Conservatives were moving toward government, they should be expected to attract the stars, especially those who have had some previous political experience. 

The Mississauga-Lakeshore message was clear. Conservative attack-dog politics did not secure the desired result. The new year may bring new Tory opportunities.

The passing of the beloved Liberal MP Jim Carr means another byelection in Manitoba. 

For his own survival, Poilievre must pivot. 

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By SHEILA COPPS

First published in The Hill Times on June 25, 2018.

OTTAWA—Smart politicians make course corrections.

Byelections and provincial trends often provide the impetus for political redirection.

So what is the takeaway from last week’s Quebec byelection and the recent tectonic shift in Ontario politics?

In both instances, there was a shift away from Liberals and towards Conservatives.

But they may actually result in completely different impacts on federal politics.

The Quebec byelection in a bellwether riding that has voted for every party in the 93 years since it was created, should ring alarm bells for the federal Liberals.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently edged ahead of his Conservative opposition in public opinion polls, but the Quebec jury is still out.

The last time a Conservative was elected in the riding was in 1997, when André Harvey, who had served under prime minister Brian Mulroney, returned to politics.

Harvey subsequently left the Tories, sat as an Independent, and then joined the Liberals.

Since his time, the riding has actually mimicked the national wave, electing a representative from every single political party. The only Chicoutimi loyalty is to trends, the riding switched from the Bloc, to the New Democrats, to the Liberals in a single decade. The significance of its return to the Tory fold should not be underestimated.

Nor should it be overblown. The popularity of former hockey coach and political junkie Richard Martel is without challenge. When the sitting Liberal announced his resignation, it appeared as though the local Conservative organizers were quicker on the draw.

In a byelection, the stature of a local candidate is far greater important than in a general election. Just look at the number of popular Liberals dumped in the Ontario vote. Local candidates don’t count for many votes in a general election.

So the question mark about Conservative leader Andrew Scheer in Quebec has not yet been answered. But the strength of his party’s local organization has.

By normal standards, as the retiree was a Liberal, the governing party should have had the time and foresight to land a big fish as their candidate.

Instead, the official opposition won that battle.

This Liberal misstep could be a reflection of the lack of federal Liberal organizational depth in eastern Quebec.

If the Liberals are poorly organized, the fate of the New Democrats is even more troubling. Having carried the seat in the Jack Layton orange wave only two elections ago, this time the party did not even secure their deposit.

The NDP joined the Bloc Québécois, in the single digits, raising questions about the winnability factor.  That is deadly in Quebec.

Unlike other parts of the country, most Quebec voters have a tendency to vote with the trend. It is no mistake that Chicoutimi electors have copied the winning wave for the past two decades.

This is good news for the Conservatives, but not so much for anyone else.

However, the Conservative win in Ontario could have a perverse effect of helping the federal Liberals.

Ontarians are suspicious about investing too much power in one political ideology. So when they choose Tories in Toronto, they swing to Liberals in Ottawa.

The provincial New Democrats official opposition status will attract Ottawa back room talent, depleting human resources needed by the federal party to rebuild.

Former leader Tom Mulcair suggested in a media appearance last week that Jagmeet Singh’s popularity would grow once people get to know him. According to Mulcair, Singh’s rise in visibility would not happen without a seat in the House of Commons.

But the leader cannot afford to run and lose, so he will likely be sidelined until next year’s election, with potentially precipitous consequences.

Meanwhile, Trudeau has made some bold moves to woo the West, including the pipeline purchase and marijuana legislation.

Those successes will pay dividends in Alberta and British Columbia, but neither province is likely to carry the Grits back to power. Instead, the prime minister needs to pay attention to his home base and parts east.

Conventional wisdom says the native son always has an edge in Quebec, which should favour Trudeau.

But if modern day politics has taught us anything, the only certainty is uncertainty.

A clean sweep in Atlantic Canada is not likely to recur. Current Maritime polling favours the Tories.

With Quebec softening, and a rumble afoot in Ontario, Atlantic Canada could prove to be the Grit bastion that must not be breached.

Byelections can be the canary in the mine.

Trudeau and the Liberals need to heed the messages this canary is sending.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By SHEILA COPPS

First published on Monday, December 18, 2017 in The Hill Times.

OTTAWA—Byelections burst the Ottawa bubble last week.

Mid-term report cards on the governing Liberals have been flagging. They were unanimous in predicting the honeymoon was over.

But four byelections in other parts of the country told a different story.

The Liberals made surprising gains in British Columbia, while the Conservatives lost a seat but gained in popular vote. The New Democrat Party ended in deep trouble.

Losses by both opposition parties are interrelated.

A Tory general election victory could not happen without a hike in NDP support to peel votes away Liberal votes.

Just as Jean Chrétien’s government benefited from a right-wing split to win three successive majorities, Stephen Harper’s Conservative three-peat was spawned by splits on the left.

Most concerning for the New Democrats must be that their new leader underperformed in the very areas where his singular attributes were supposed to grow the vote.

Born in Scarborough, Jagmeet Singh was tagged to increase NDP support in suburban GTA, and in the Surrey-White Rock riding adjacent to one of the largest Indo-Canadian populations in the country.

After Singh was chosen leader of the NDP, most pundits predicted his charisma and unique visible minority status would dip into potential Liberal support in key battlegrounds like Toronto and Vancouver.

After all, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau enjoyed strong support amongst women and minorities, and his diverse cabinet reflected those successes.

Being a minister is one thing. Being leader is a more compelling story. Most believed support from diverse populations in places like Surrey and Scarborough would bleed away from the Liberals in favour of Singh.

The byelections put that myth to rest. Singh needs to take a long, hard look at these results and revisit his current absence from the House of Commons.

In most instances, the political fight was strictly between the Liberals and the Tories, although the NDP retained second-place status in Saskatchewan. Everywhere else, the New Democrats were simply irrelevant.

The Conservatives improved their overall vote percentage, but the most efficient voter operation was that of the Liberals.

Not only did the party hold on to support in vote-rich Toronto, it actually defeated the Tories in a British Columbia seat that had not been Liberal for more than 75 years.

Contrary to Singh, Andrew Scheer has been building Conservative Party support since his leadership win.

While working to solidify the votes of traditional Conservatives, the leader also needs to focus on moving up with swing voters across the country.

Increasing the Tory vote in rural Saskatchewan, while making good headlines, does not actually change a general election result.

Trudeau and the Liberals are obviously benefitting from the strength of the national economy. But they decided not to ignore the importance of by-elections in preparing a general election strategy.

Historically, leaders of all parties have stayed out of by-elections. But, as in so many other areas, Trudeau threw away the playbook. His personal popularity still outstrips that of his party in many parts of the country, so he campaigned hard in ridings where the party was expecting close outcomes. That work paid off.

It didn’t mean so much in seats that the Liberals already held. But it did allow the grits to sideline the NDP in races that could be a portent of the next general election.

The more trouble the NDP is having, the harder it will be for the party to recruit quality candidates who can make a difference in a tight local race.

Last week’s Liberal winner in British Columbia had already enjoyed a successful political career as a popular local mayor and provincial minister. He was facing off against a well-known Conservative former provincial and federal minister. The NDP candidate, a community organizer, barely outpaced the Green Party candidate in support.

Singh really needs to hit the reset button, and the best way to do that is to get a seat in the House of Commons. He needs the visibility that comes with Question Period and the opportunity to act as chief party spokesperson on key parliamentary issues.

Without the benefit of constant Ottawa exposure, Singh is not going to be able to increase his media presence by travelling the country.

Scheer needs to move beyond reinforcing his right-wing base by shifting his party to the centre, if he has any hope of winning the next election.

Notwithstanding Ottawa insiders, the prime minister seems to be moving in the right direction.

If it ain’t broke, he probably does not need to fix it.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.