Justin Trudeau believes his strong campaigning skills will kick into high gear when people finally have a chance to compare and contrast him with Pierre Poilievre, but Poilievre has a head of steam going which gets people excited. The winds of change have not bypassed Canada.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on July 4, 2024.

OTTAWA—The winds of political change are blowing everywhere.

Instead of interpreting that as a renaissance of the right, we have to assume that voter fatigue in multiple countries is fuelling this desire for change.

In the case of the United Kingdom, that wind led to a majority Labour government win on July 4.

British Conservatives have been in power for 14 years.

But unlike Canadian Liberals, the British Tories have motored through five leaders during the same period.

The revolving door on British leadership is prompted by a rule similar to that of Canadian Conservatives. If the majority of caucus votes against the leader, they are dismissed from power.

In the British Parliament, the dumping of leaders by caucus springs from rules written into party constitutions.

In Canada, only the Conservatives can trigger a leadership review. That process stems from a private member’s bill adopted unanimously in the House of Commons on condition that implementation is up to each caucus to be voted on privately at the beginning of a new Parliament.

Because of this rule, even if Pierre Poilievre were to secure a majority government in the next election, if his popularity flagged, he could be quickly replaced.

In the case of the United Kingdom, the revolving door leads to internal party divisions that are hard to heal.

In the dying dies of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s campaign, former prime minister Boris Johnson was brought in to rally the troops. He rallied hard, but did little to support his leader.

Instead, he used his time on stage in London’s Chelsea neighbourhood to praise his own initiatives, and trash the left.

He simply ignored Sunak, who was part of the group that dumped him. With such Tory in-fighting, the Labour Party has doubled its lead heading into a vote predicted to be a washout for the governing party.

From France to Canada, from the United Kingdom to the United States, multiple western leaders are suffering from voter fatigue.

Some may also be suffering from personal fatigue.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s performance in the June 27 debate against Donald Trump was palpably painful to watch. He struggled to keep his train of thought, and spoke in a gravelly, weakened voice. There were moments when he appeared to be confused about what the issue was. His wife, Jill, went up to the podium at the end to usher Biden away, as one would do for an elderly relative with balance problems.

All in all, it reinforced the narrative that Biden should not be the Democratic Party’s choice in the next election if they intend to defeat Trump.

Americans are also suffering from price fatigue and inflation, but there does not seem to be the obvious stampede to the right that one witnessed in the first round of the French elections last week.

Instead, the American race is a sparring match between relatively equal political movements, with the two-party system almost split down the middle.

But with the mental and physical feebleness Biden displayed on debate night, his party will be ceding the election to the Trump Republicans unless he is encouraged to step aside.

In the French coalition system with multiple parties, the group led by President Emmanuel Macron is running a poor third in the vote he himself triggered early.

Like the U.K’s Sunak, Macron called a surprise election. Both seem to be facing imminent defeat because of their own bad judgement.

In Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s case, he is hoping that time will heal all wounds. But it may also be that time is running out because the governance agreement with Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats will expire early next year.

The shocking Liberal loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s, Ont., left the party with a sense of foreboding that will fester when they hear negative feedback on the summer barbecue circuit.

Unlike Sunak, Trudeau cannot simply be dumped by a vote of his caucus.

Like Biden, Trudeau must reflect on whether his presence in the next election will be a plus or a minus.

The prime minister believes his strong campaigning skills will kick into high gear when people finally have a chance to compare and contrast him with Poilievre.

But the prime minister also needs boots on the ground, though with many Liberals both privately and publicly expressing their reservations, the volunteer base of the party will be shrinking.

Poilievre has a head of steam going which gets people excited.

The winds of change have not bypassed Canada.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By weakening the authority of the U.S. House Speaker, the ‘Never Kevin’ caucus has been trying to legislate changes that run parallel to the demands at the basis of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on Capitol Hill. Back in the 1800s, a similar Speaker vote required more than 100 rounds to reach a majority. That may be happening again. It gives democracy a black eye. 

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on January 9, 2023.

OTTAWA—Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. The message has come across loud and clear to aspiring American House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was eventually elected on Jan. 7 House Speaker on the 15th ballot.

The Republican establishment choice was so sure he would get the job that his staff already address him as speaker and his furniture has been moved into the office.

But even as he limps across the finish line, he will be weakened, the Republican caucus will be in tatters and the institution of Speaker will be considerably diminished.

This Washington circus is proof positive that a republican system is not always the best form of governance.

It just so happens that the American Republicans have fractured into the kind of government one gets when the solidarity of parliamentary caucuses is replaced with a system where each representative stands alone.

In recent years there has been much attention in Canada paid to constituent assemblies, where Members of Parliament are expected to ignore party promises and simply reflect the views of constituents.

In Canada, that political division breaks upon geographic lines, with Alberta and Saskatchewan becoming increasingly isolated in their moves to the right.

In the United States, constituents are not defined by a geographic area of governance. They rally round a cause, and work politically to elect those who will simply espouse it their cause.

In the case of Republicans who will determine McCarthy’s fate, they don’t really believe in government. Some are even rabid supporters of the Jan. 6, 2021, attempt to overtake the Capitol Hill Building and overthrow the Congress.

These extremists are able to pursue agendas as they see fit with no regard to caucus cohesion or the fact that their actions are leading to a weakening in public belief in democracy.

It was the first time in a century that the nominated speaker was not elected on the first ballot.

And the chaos on the floor of the House has been largely driven by the rump group in the Republican party that actually appeared emboldened by the situation.

“Freedom caucus” speaker nominee Byron Donalds of Florida characterized the mess as “an invigorating day for America.”

To the rest of the world, watching this debacle unfold, it appears as though the American political system is broken.

There does not appear to be a way to build consensus and collaboration in government where the importance of internal political solidarity has been blown up.

Instead, the current focus appears on handcuffing colleagues and breaking down the structures of government, including the power of the Speaker.

In a parliamentary system, there are moments when one’s personal point of view runs counter to the majority or to the direction charted by the leadership. In some instances, there is an irreconcilable internal division.

One good example in the case of the Liberals was the internal split over the Meech Lake Accord. It caused serious caucus rancour and eventually contributed to the defeat of a constitutional package that would have seen Quebec sign the Canadian Constitution.

On the caucus side, one quarter of Liberal members split from the leadership and voted against the accord. In the end, the agreement failed to receive endorsement from all the provinces.

But at the end of the day, the parliamentary system places a focus on solidarity and nurtures the importance of consensus within political parties.

Even in the British meltdown that faced Boris Johnson, his parliamentary caucus was quick to come together.

His successor suffered the ignominy of being turfed within months. But the British political system did not unravel.

In the United States, it feels as though the political system is unravelling.

The members of this freedom caucus seem to revel in the chaos that they have created.

On the Canadian front, the so-called 2023 “Freedom Convoy” has been cancelled.

One of the reasons cited for the cancellation was Ontario legislation that included heavy financial penalties for illegal convoys.

The only political party in Canada that supported the convoy was the Conservative party, but even that party has moderated its previously supportive rhetoric.

In the United States, it almost appears that the Group of 20 Republican Congresspeople is actually trying to bring down their own majority.

By weakening the authority of the Speaker, the “Never Kevin” caucus has been trying to legislate changes that run parallel to the demands at the basis of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on Capitol Hill.

Back in the 1800s, a similar Speaker vote required more than 100 rounds to reach a majority.

That may be happening again. It gives democracy a black eye.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

The world sees that Russia is engaged in war crimes. U.S. President Joe Biden continues to insist that at this point in time, the accusation cannot be made.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on March 7, 2022.

OTTAWA—American President Joe Biden is a political survivor. But that comes with its own challenges.

As a member of Congress, he was able to work both sides of the aisle and build bi-partisan legislation.

But in the world of war there are no bi-partisans. And that is the problem he is facing as European leaders push the envelope while Biden keeps trying to find compromise.

The world sees that Russia is engaged in war crimes. Biden continues to insist that at this point in time, the accusation cannot be made.

Perhaps the deadliest political moment was the American offer to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to flee the Ukrainian capital. His retort will go down in history. “The fight is here; I need anti-tank ammo, not a ride.”

While British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is well-known for bombast, in this instance, bombast works.

A psychopathic bully like Vladimir Putin will only respond to force. The notion that soft words are a path to peace rings hollow.

While the Ukrainian people literally fight for their lives, the American president seems strangely detached.

He still has a chance to turn it around, but it better happen quickly. While Russian bombs are targeting childcare centres and hospitals, it is time for NATO to declare and enforce a no-fly zone over the Ukraine.

Of course, this will be viewed as an act of war by Putin, but he is banking on the fact that his opponents will be afraid to unleash his ire with a direct act inside Ukrainian borders.

But it will push him back and stem the bleeding that is currently happening inside the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

An opportunity to push Putin back will also allow time for international financial sanctions to bite deeper into his pocket and those of his friends and allies.

Only a week ago, the German government said no to offering more weapons and closing down SWIFT to Russian banks.

In a stunning reversal, the Germans are leading the charge in ways to frustrate Putin’s war.

That response was prompted by public horror at what was happening in the Ukraine. And as more pictures of maimed and murdered women and children emerge, the international horror will only mount.

So why doesn’t Biden lead the charge instead of appearing to play follow the European leader?

In the same way that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is a peacemaker by nature, Biden’s first instinct is to find a diplomatic way out.

Putin keeps saying that he is ready for a diplomatic solution, but actions speak louder than words.

In Canada, the war cabinet is looking very strong. With the Ukrainian roots of the deputy prime minister, it is obvious to all that Chrystia Freeland is personally invested in saving her family’s homeland.

As finance minister, she also has the tools to cut off the money supply to the murderers. Freeland has been working incessantly to bring her European partners onside for deeper and stronger financial sanctions.

Defence Minister Anita Anand has also risen to the occasion, appearing composed and knowledgeable on the military deployment and arms procurement process for the effort.

With Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly rounding out the triumvirate, it is the first time in Canadian history that three women have led an international war effort on behalf of our country. These women are also potential successors to the prime minister. Despite that internal competition, they all appear to be working well in tandem.

The huge Ukrainian diaspora in Canada is also politically important for the government.

Canada boasts the largest community of Ukrainians outside the Ukraine. Their high level of political involvement makes them very important to any party that hopes to form government.

In the Greater Toronto Area, Ukrainians can make the difference in several ridings in west Toronto, Mississauga, and Hamilton.

Likewise, Winnipeg and Edmonton have strong Ukrainian ties and the community is not only working to promote government action but many are returning to Ukraine to join the battle for the homeland.

The world of sport is also stepping up to the plate, with international federations cancelling events in Russia and tossing their teams from global competition.

The world is definitely ahead of the NATO politicians.

But that gives Biden the chance to follow his finely honed political instincts and build back some political support.

The more Putin is isolated, the easier it will be for NATO to provide real support to the Ukrainian people.

The no-fly zone is the only way to stop this insanity.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

The time has come to move as a herd.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on June 1, 2020.

OTTAWA—Surgical sterility is great for an operating room. But it does not work in the real world.

The notion that after almost three months in lockdown people are expected to either stay home or go to places where they are not allowed to sit down for fear of transmitting COVID is unworkable.

In Calgary, people gather in bars and restaurants in a convivial atmosphere. In Ottawa, you cannot even sit down on picnic tables at the Dairy Queen for fear of an infection outbreak.

In the olden days, Hogtown had another nickname, Toronto the Good. It was based on laws with a distinctively Presbyterian flavour that restricted drinking, dancing, and all things purportedly sinful.

The new normal has unleashed a wave of righteous caterwauling the likes of which we have not witnessed since the seventies (of the last century).

The blowback on the Trinity-Bellwoods park exuberance, was a case in point.

Everyone from the premier to the mayor jumped on the finger-pointing bandwagon, instead of realistically assessing why there was only a postage-stamp park in an area of multiple, low-income high-rise dwellings.

Not everyone has a private backyard to COVID in. In Toronto, the possibility of having your own personal space is even more remote.

So, on a sunny Saturday in May, when the province had announced the loosening of rules to stage two, people came out in droves.

On the fish-eye lens shots that immediately circulated on social media, it looked as though thousands were elbow to elbow.

But when the television cameras arrived, it was clear that people were trying their best to ensure social distancing.

But the armchair critics jumped in to attack millennials, claiming their irresponsibility was putting lives at risk.

At one point, a COVID-commentating doctor was almost in tears on television because he could not understand why people would be undermining the contribution of health-care workers in this thoughtless romp in the park.

Across the pond, critics are vicious in their attack British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s top aid for defying lockdown rules and driving to his mother’s home to drop off his four-year-old with grandma. He claims he and his wife were sick, and therefore the trip was about necessary childcare while they convalesced.

Without drilling down into the details of his explanation, the revelation rocked the country. People are stuck at home and obviously hurting when the rules that apply to them do not apply to others.

But the COVID epidemic has also unleashed the vitriol of unhappy people who normally keep their acidic worldview to themselves.

In today’s world, the COVID police are everywhere, ready to pounce on someone who veers too close on a walking path or accidentally steps in the wrong spot in a grocery store.

The old nosy parker, who was into everybody’s else’s business, is now doing it with impunity, as though their observations on everyone else are in the public interest.

In the condo in which I live, some dwellers have taken to counting the empty visitor parking spots every weekend to make sure that no interlopers are sneaking into the premises.

Last weekend, I hosted two family members for a dinner. It was within the rule of five, and we had covided in their backyard (with self-distancing) several times over the past few months.

To enter the apartment without neighbourly reporting, we made sure family entered through the underground parking, so as not to be outed by anyone looking out their window into visitors’ parking.

I have a friend who is struggling alone to support her husband, suffering with brain cancer. We have a weekly COVID meeting in the passageway between our apartments.

Last Friday, she broke down in tears, describing the loneliness of watching her partner slowly slip away, without the support that would normally attend a dying family member.

Horror of horrors, I hugged her. She needed a human connection and two meters of space just did not cut it.

Perfection may occur in hospital settings, but I think the public’s attention would be far better focused on eliminating risk in long-term care facilities.

With the high ratio of deaths in vulnerable populations, it is shameful that we need the military to expose germ-infested, understaffed conditions in health facilities.

But while we focus on not touching each other, the death rate numbers are largely driven by long-term care neglect.

Canadians have been very supportive of the new normal. But enough is enough. The time has come to move as a herd.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Many of the Brexiteers voted ‘Leave’ over immigration, but few in the U.K.—and Canada—seem to understand how vital immigration is for economic growth.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 2, 2019.

OTTAWA—Brexiteer Boris Johnson is taking his country to the brink.

Parliamentary chaos, left in his wake, is a reminder to all of us that governments matter.

British singer-songwriter Billy Bragg characterizes the current mess as “the most divisive years” in the history of his homeland. Bragg compared last week’s hasty prorogation to the work of the last proroguer, King Charles the First, who was ultimately beheaded.

“Consensus is further away than any time I can remember,” bemoaned Bragg in a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation interview.

Brits are getting a bird’s eye view of the importance of government.

Johnson is pledging to leave the European Union on Halloween, whether or not his country has been able to negotiate an exit agreement. He may not succeed in prorogation, as senior members of his own inner circle have resigned in protest. But the self-imposed, drop-dead departure date of Oct. 31 is sure to throw the United Kingdom into deeper crisis.

The whole exercise is a glaring example of how not to operate in a democracy. The country is split right down the middle between Leavers and Remainers. The financial centre of London is overwhelmingly opposed to the decision, while most other parts of the country are slightly in favour.

The initial referendum was launched by former Prime Minister David Cameron as a way of shutting down internal Conservative opposition to the country’s increasing integration with the rest of Europe. Cameron made a foolish miscalculation on the matter, setting the benchmark for referendum victory at a simple majority. His country is now reaping the results of this ill-advised decision.

The younger the voter, the more likely they are to want to remain in the European Union. Conversely, older citizens, who remember the days before the United Kingdom joined the European Union back in 1973, are more likely to want to leave. Polling shows a strong correlation between age and a desire to exit the union. The majority of older people hold the view that European membership has deprived Britain of the power to control immigration. Younger pro-Europe voters believe immigration has made the country a more vibrant place and assisted economic growth, in complete contrast to their older counterparts.

Whatever happens in the next few weeks, one thing is certain: the importance of governments in planning for the long-term future has never been clearer.

Liberals took a beating in Canada when we asked the courts to establish a clear path forward in the event of another referendum on separation. The courts confirmed that separation approval would require a clear question supported by a clear majority. This principle was enshrined in the Clarity Act. A similar British law would have ensured that any decision to leave the European Union would have required a clear majority. The only thing clear today is that the country is split in half.

If the United Kingdom does exit with no deal, Scotland and Northern Ireland will quickly be knocking at Europe’s door to get back in. One country ends and another begins. The notion of a painless exit from the European Union is a pipe dream that not even Johnson will be able achieve.

Confusion belies a bigger question. Modern Canadian Conservatives claim that less government is better. They are positioning the upcoming federal election as a fight between over-governing Liberals and the party that wants to keep government out of your pocketbook and your life.

Libertarians like Maxime Bernier go even further. They believe the job of government is to get out of the way so the private sector can have free rein over the economy.

Most of us understand very little about how immigration policy and economic development go hand in hand. As Canadians have fewer children, the only way the country can meet workforce demand is by increasing immigration. Bernier’s plan to cut those numbers by more than a half is not only bad politics, it is bad economics, especially in struggling regions of the country. With an aging population, we need more young people to replenish the retiring workforce.

But the older we grow, the less we seem to understand or welcome the integration of immigrants and diverse populations into Canadian communities. Immigrants are key to revitalizing Canada’s flagging rural economies. They bring families, spending power, and entrepreneurial talent.

It is no surprise that British younger people welcome immigrant diversity as an economic asset. Their world has been turned upside-down by a generation that will not be around to bear the pain of Brexit madness.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.