One certainty remains. The community spirit of Prince Edward Islanders and other devastated Atlantic Canadians cannot be destroyed.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on October 3, 2022.

OTTAWA—Not too many people are foolish enough to fly into a hurricane. Most people focus their efforts on trying to get away from them.

But last week, I joined the ranks of the storm watchers, those slightly twisted meteorologic amateurs who like to fly into the eye of the storm.

In my case, the trip had nothing to do with weather.

Instead, my high school basketball team planned a week-long girls’ reunion on Prince Edward Island, the starting date of which just happened to coincide with the arrival of post-tropical storm Fiona.

The team, which started playing together back in 1967, never gave a moment’s thought to cancelling the trip. After all, we are fighters, part of a high school girls’ squad that could beat anything.

Our multi-year undefeated record was testament to that as our coach, Cecilia Carter-Smith, reminded us when the storm battered our two-storey lodging.

We arrived in beautiful downtown Charlottetown a few hours before Fiona landed.

I flew in on an Air Canada turbo-prop from Ottawa, and midway through the flight, we hit a series of air pockets that literally got my praying for my life.

The 78-seater Q-400 flew at 35,000-feet, smack into the middle of headwinds that were a precursor of Fiona’s flight to Canada.

When the flight began, we were warned about potential turbulence by the captain. He wasn’t kidding. The plane was tossed from the top down and from side to side like a badminton shuttlecock.

At one point, the nose started to veer sideways with one wing leaning higher by the minute.

Luckily for everyone on the plane, the pilot was skilled enough to handle the challenge. Within about 20 minutes, he had permission to fly down to 15,000 feet which cut the buffeting considerably.

During those frightening minutes, you could hear a pin drop. Everyone appeared to keep silent counsel. For my part, I was repeating the rosary and trying to forget the fact that my grandmother died in a plane crash.

My mind was filled with doom and gloom, but prayer pushed it out until, finally, the plane descended to a more comfortable altitude.

The pilot finally broke the silence, calmly advising everyone what we already knew. The worst was over and we were now on a manageable flight path.

Upon arrival in Charlottetown, our team was commiserating on whether the hurricane would even happen or whether this was just a hyped-up storm prediction that would not materialize.

Just to be on the safe side, we ordered three pizzas, which turned out to be a good move as in the wake of Fiona, we had no electricity and no way of actually feeding ourselves as all restaurants were in the same powerless situation.

We were staying in one of the century-old homes owned by the Great George Hotel, a fabulous downtown heritage property which is just like a second home.

Our edifice was just down the street and our bedrooms were on the second floor. I was facing north, right in the windy path of Fiona’s wrath. The wind howled and the rain pelted, but it wasn’t until an ancient tree towering over the building was cracked by the storm that we began to worry.

In the end, two giant trees were felled on both sides of our house, but by the grace of God, neither of their oversized trunks hit the building.

We emerged unscathed the following morning, only to be confronted with the hard evidence of Fiona’s massive destruction in every community on the island.

Everyone was pitching in to help with the cleanup. In one instance, a family of 11, whose roof was decapitated by Fiona, was offered free lodging by the Murphy clan, generous owners of the Great George. The lodgings allowed them some respite from the elements while they hatched a plan to rebuild their home.

Neighbours pitched in to help neighbours, and no one was left wanting for food or water.

It truly was a community effort as the rebuilding began.

When we left the island almost a week later, there were still swathes of the province without power, and electricity crews were working double overtime trying to restore some form of normalcy.

Some natural wonders, like the dunes in the Prince Edward Island National Park and Teacup Rock, may never come back.

Other losses, like the iconic 100-year-old trees throughout the province, will be replaced. One certainty remains. The community spirit of Prince Edward Islanders and other devastated Atlantic Canadians cannot be destroyed.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Controversy inside the Conservative federal leadership race will have a spillover effect into the provincial elections in Ontario and Quebec.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on March 21, 2022.

OTTAWA—By summer’s end, the Canadian political landscape could change dramatically.

Ontario is into a provincial election in less than two months, smack in the middle of a national Conservative leadership race.

Quebec must have an election by Oct. 3, and next month Alberta’s controversial premier faces an internal review which could plunge his party into another fight.

Federal and provincial parties are separate, but the voting public sees them all as a single, homogenous mass.

So, controversy inside the Conservative federal leadership race will have a spillover effect into the provincial elections in Ontario and Quebec.

In Ontario, the premier has already stated that he will remain neutral and none of his ministers will be involved in any campaign.

That is bad news for Jean Charest, as the leadership list of Caroline Mulroney, whose family has deep ties with the former Quebec premier, could be very valuable.

Charest’s only path to victory is to saturate Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada with enough votes to overcome his socially conservative deficit in the west.

But even though Mulroney herself cannot get involved, there is nothing stopping key organizers from enlisting volunteers and voters for Charest.

The organizing skills of former provincial Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown are well known. He could secure a base for a more centrist vote which would likely end up in Charest’s camp in a frontrunner’s fight.

Brown has no love for the premier, as Doug Ford actually came to office after Brown resigned following two allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denied and for which CTV recently expressed “regrets” over some inaccurate details in its story. The Brown exit was ugly, and paved the way for Ford to beat Christine Elliott in a subsequent provincial leadership contest.

Any reference to the hate-hate relationship between Brown and Ford will not help the premier in the key ridings in Brampton. Mississauga and Scarborough where Brown has many supporters who would not likely support the premier in a general election.

As for Quebec, issues within the Tory federal leadership could definitely create some blowback in the provincial campaign. The bill that forced teachers to choose between religious headgear and their jobs has caused quite a stir across the country.

However, it is largely supported in Quebec, so attacks on Bill 21 by national Conservatives will simply reinforce the re-election chances of Premier François Legault.

Charest will have to tread carefully there because he needs to secure his Quebec base, but cannot afford to alienate the rest of the party on a divisive religious issue.

Alberta’s Jason Kenney, already hobbled by a popularity plunge in his home province, has historically tried to play a brokerage role in the federal campaign.

But given he has so many Alberta problems, the usual cadre of candidates lined up to seek his blessing will definitely decrease in this leadership campaign.

Ford is facing the voters on June 2, but 25 per cent of his current caucus has decided not to run again.

The most recent announcement by Christine Elliott, former leadership rival, that she is stepping down, does not augur well for the party’s election chances.

Most seasoned politicians can smell a change in the wind. When they decide not to reoffer, it is because they think their chances of losing are greater than winning.

Of course, they usually cite family or personal reasons for resigning, but in the end, a party on its way out loses more incumbent members than a party in the ascendancy.

Ford’s saving grace at the moment is that the New Democrats and Liberals are in a virtual tie as to who the replacement should be.

That being said, the Liberals have the edge as the NDP polls heavier in certain urban constituencies like Hamilton and Windsor, but it’s presence in rural Ontario is much weaker. That skews the numbers because an equal vote actually means more seats for the Liberals, in the same way that an equal federal Conservative/Liberal vote means more seats for the grits.

By October, we will likely have at least two new premiers in Alberta and Ontario, which also has federal repercussions.

In Ontario’s case, voters like to have political bookends at the federal and provincial scene. So, if the Liberals win the provincial election, it will open more doors for a Tory federal victory in the next election.

In Alberta, it is a Tory/NDP dance, and a provincial win for the New Democrats would provide energy and workers for the next federal election.

The only certainty in Canadian politics this year is change.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Andrew Scheer is leaving, so he won’t have to answer in the next election to the claim that he considers Canadian workers lazy.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May 11, 2020.

OTTAWA—Andrew Scheer is sounding more and more like Stephen Harper.

Who could forget former prime minister Harper’s claim that Atlantic Canadians were suffering from “a culture of defeat”?

Harper claimed his comments were misrepresented and what he was trying to say was that Atlantic Canadians were subject to Ottawa’s culture of defeat, “I’ve never ever suggested that the people of this region are responsible for the region’s have-not status.

“There is a policy culture of defeat at the federal level and that’s what we want to change,” he told a business group during a pre-election tour.

But Atlantic Canadians did not forget those comments, and for the last few elections, the party has been struggling to overcome that backlash.

During the Justin Trudeau sweep of 2015, Liberals managed to pick up all the seats in Atlantic Canada, including some that had never voted Liberal in the history of the country.

If the Conservatives have any hope of forming government, they need to attract voters in the region.

They also need to reach out to ordinary people. Andrew Scheer’s comment last week that the federal government’s programs were derailing provincial efforts to get people back to work will not help.

For most Canadians, federal benefits have been a lifeline in a worldwide crisis that has no precedent.

It is not as if Canadians quit their jobs of their own accord, and there certainly is no new job waiting for them to fill.

In most instances, when there is a reluctance to return to work, it is based on unsafe working conditions.

Canadian farmers have petitioned the government to approve temporary worker applications because the back-breaking work involved in planting and harvesting is not compensated commensurate to the workload.

A minimum wage farming job is attractive to a Mexican migrant who makes one-tenth of that in his home country. It is not attractive to a Canadian who can usually work at a much less physically demanding job for more money.

The same holds true for workers in meat factories. The person who died at the Cargill plant near High River, Alta., was a 67-year-old Vietnamese boat person. Her family came to Canada as refugees, and with little English, her work options were limited.

According to her husband, she enjoyed the work at Cargill, where she and more than 900 other employees contracted the COVID virus while on the assembly line.

More than half the plant employees were infected, forcing a plant closure which is choking off the country’s beef supply. That single factory is responsible for 40 per cent of Western Canada’s beef production.

Governments moved in quickly to investigate and secure the food supply, as even the Golden Arches were claiming they had to source their 100 per cent Canadian beef elsewhere.

Given the precarious situation of the Alberta economy, it is obvious that an indefinite shuttering would not work.

However, how would most Canadians react if they were asked to return to work within two weeks to a factory that had seen 949 employees infected with the COVID virus?

As a workplace, Cargill is a magnet for immigrant, unskilled labourers who don’t need to speak English or French to work on an assembly line.

It is also a place where union/management disputes and difficult working conditions make it a less than attractive proposition for many Canadian workers.

So, when Scheer says Canadians don’t want to go back to work because they are receiving federal government benefits that are too generous, he is simply feeding a stereotype that has no basis in fact and is politically untenable.

Scheer is leaving, so he won’t have to answer in the next election to the claim that he considers Canadian workers lazy.

That explanation will be left to his successor, whomever that might be. But the anti-worker stigma that he and his predecessor have inflicted on the party the party will be very hard to shake.

And when it comes to election time, workers make up a very important part of the population.

The so-called 905-belt soccer moms whose votes can swing an election are often working at low-paying jobs in the transportation industry, at the Toronto International Airport and in other low-paid hotel employment where fluency and literacy in English is not required.

They are also the ones who are employed as personal service workers, in the jobs that we all now recognize as life-saving and life-threatening.

These are the people who really need to work. And right now, they need help, not insults.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on January 14, 2019.

OTTAWA—Scott Brison’s surprise departure is a wake-up call for Atlantic Liberals.

His successor will have big shoes to fill.

Brison was always ahead of the curve. One of Canada’s first openly gay Members of Parliament, he moved seamlessly from the Progressive Conservatives to the Liberals when the Tory party severed with its progressive wing.

Brison was a great minister and MP, continually re-elected and popular in Ottawa and his constituency.

He posted seven successive election victories and served as a capable, no-nonsense minister in two Liberal governments. He also found time to build strong hometown ties, fathering two daughters with his partner Maxime Saint-Pierre. The retirement will not doubt provide more time to spend with his growing family.

As Brison’s social media post said “now is the time for others to walk that path, and I pass the baton knowing that Canadians will always collectively make the wise, democratic choice that puts good women and men in the Parliament of Canada, year after year, election after election.”

Brison has always had a great political antenna and, while he said his decision was family-based, his reflection had to include a review of the party’s political popularity meter in Nova Scotia.

In the last election, Liberals swept Atlantic Canada with Brison garnering 70 per cent support in his riding. It goes without saying that will not be the outcome of the next election.

The Liberals have nowhere to go but down. And unlike most other parts of the country, the biggest beneficiary of Liberal losses will be the Conservative Party.

Brison’s own riding was always blue until he decided to cross the floor and the constituents entrusted their confidence in him.

Tory popularity is on the rise in the East. The Liberals are definitely down but not out.

But the Grit focus on pipelines in the West has left their longtime supporters wondering what is in it for them.

Brison was a senior minister in Atlantic Canada. With his resignation, the region has lost a national heavyweight but that will be addressed this week.

With the exception of Dominic LeBlanc and Lawrence MacAulay, other Atlantic ministers are junior in rank and experience. Some in the party are complaining that the region is underrepresented in cabinet.

With election year kicking in, it is tough to point to a visionary eastern project that will excite voters in the next campaign. While the country is deeply involved in the government’s attempt to facilitate a western pipeline, there does not seem to be a similar Atlantic agenda.

Having made a British Columbian breakthrough in the last campaign, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau undoubtedly wants to hold onto his gains.

But in the down and dirty world of electoral politics, the most important supporters are those who have been with you longest.

Atlantic Canada has been a bastion for Liberals even during tough times.

And they might be feeling a little taken for granted.

Brison said all the right things about his support for the party and his intention to help win the next election.

But by voting with his feet, he becomes the first Liberal to leave on the eve of an election.

The New Democrats have bled resignations in the past year, and that is usually a portent of diminishing electoral expectations.

If Jagmeet Singh is not successful in the upcoming byelection, the party will undoubtedly see more departures.

As for the Tories, Andrew Scheer has a bounce in his step and his team appears to be solidly gearing up for the fight.

Brison’s decision may be a solitary one. But if more Liberals decide to leave, there is a message in that as well.

One of the challenges of the new fixed date election system is that the campaign is already off and running even though the date is Oct. 21.

Every decision is now seen through an election lens. The Brison story has the potential to move from a single resignation to that of a potential eastern narrative.

Trudeau delivered on the marijuana promise, and Nova Scotia is actually the biggest beneficiary of that decision.

But the party’s electoral hopes in Atlantic Canada could go up in smoke if they don’t have anything more to offer.

A carbon cheque will not cut it, as people will be happy to cash in and vote for the competition.

The reality is that most regions do not decide on what government did yesterday. They want to know what is coming tomorrow.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

Atlantic Canada is waiting.