The result of last week’s byelection in Montreal proves there’s no such thing as a safe seat in politics. Liberal organizers also made a classic error: pushing aside viable local candidates for hand-picked head-office replacements.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on September 23, 2024.

OTTAWA—As prime minister Justin Trudeau struggles to defend his future plans, he should step back and reflect on one thing.

All the troubles the Liberals are currently facing are self-inflicted.

The first huge error was to believe that replacing two highly-respected senior cabinet ministers with newbies would enhance the party’s election chances.

When Trudeau chose to demote then-justice minister David Lametti and send Carolyn Bennett to the diplomatic corps, he was counting on the belief that both occupied so-called “safe” Liberal seats.

The result of last week’s byelection in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Que., proves one thing.

There is no such thing as a safe seat in politics.

Liberal organizers also committed a classic error in both ridings, pushing aside viable local candidates for hand-picked head-office replacements.

In Toronto-St.Paul’s, Leslie Church—an Ottawa insider—was the chosen one. Several popular local candidates wanted to run for the nomination, but were not given the chance to compete fairly.

In Montreal, nominee Laura Palestini was a well-known local councillor. But there were others who wanted to seek the nomination when Lametti stepped down to return to the legal profession.

National campaign co-chair Soraya Martinez Ferrada told Radio Canada last summer that Palestini was hand-picked by the party, bypassing an open nomination process.

Privately, she explained to disgruntled Liberals that the party preferred directed democracy.

But that decision meant that several long-term riding activists sat out the election, and in a race as tight as the one we saw on the evening of Sept. 16, their absence was costly.

The best way to ensure a candidate has the support of the riding is to allow an open nomination where all prospective candidates prove their organizational prowess, as well as their ability to connect with the community.

In both byelections, head office chose the candidates, and that left a bad taste in people’s mouths.

The self-inflicted wound of trying to direct democracy was coupled with a political calculation that has cost the Liberals dearly.

In the July 2023 cabinet shuffle, three senior ministers were moved out, supposedly to reboot the party fortunes.

Not coincidentally, new cabinet choices depended on how the changes might help electorally.

In Ottawa, former minister Mona Fortier occupied what is supposed to be another safe seat.

The exits of Fortier, Lametti, and Bennett were all supposed to ensure a better political positioning for the Liberals.

Lametti’s departure set the stage for the ministerial appointments of Tourism Minister Martinez Ferrada, and Justice Minister Arif Virani.

Both hail from minority communities, and it was thought that their promotions—like that of Small Business Minister Rechie Valdez—would increase party chances in Latin-American, Muslim, and Filipino communities. Fortier’s replacement with Jenna Sudds was intended to solidify a tough seat in west Ottawa, the thinking being that ministers are more likely to be re-elected in a tight race.

Instead, the numbers have not moved up for the Liberals, and the losses in two previous strongholds have further damaged the prime minister’s staying power.

The notion that ministerial status improves electability is also debatable.

Back in 1984, when I was the only Liberal elected between Toronto and Windsor, the ministerial moniker hurt rather than helped.

At that time, the party had governed for so long that anyone associated with a ministry was actually in greater danger of defeat.

The only reason I was able to win my seat was that I had come from the provincial legislature, and as a new candidate, I had the benefit of saying that I represented change.

In a change election, people vote for change. And if you are too closely associated with the previous government that can hurt rather than help.

The Liberal cabinet reset, carried out more than a year ago, has not improved the party’s standing.

There is a mood in the country that people want change. For better or for worse, they are not focusing on Pierre Poilievre’s destructive policies.

Instead, they are telling the Liberals they want new faces. Trudeau is trying to warn Canadians: “be careful what you wish for.”

Meanwhile, some Liberal organizers are actively seeking to cherry-pick their candidates, and to slow the nomination process for others.

Long-time Members of Parliament like Judy Sgro have fulfilled all the requirements for renomination, but still haven’t been given the green light.

If the party takes one lesson from these byelections, it is this: There is no such thing as a safe seat. And the best way to win an election is for the party to stay out of it.

Let local Liberals decide.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

The current bill is a softer version of the 2019 proposal because the government doesn’t want to be accused of stifling free speech. According to Arif Virani, the awful stuff will still be lawful. But now people will have to think twice before telling me to hang myself.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on March 4, 2024.

OTTAWA—Gatineau’s first woman mayor stepped down on Feb. 22, joining 800 other municipal politicians in Quebec who’ve quit, citing death threats and a hostile political climate.

In a tearful press conference, France Bélisle said she had thought long and hard on before making the decision to terminate her two-and-a-half-year term.

Bélisle did not specify the nature of the threats that prompted her departure, but social media is currently a hotbed for vicious attacks.

As a woman, she probably got more than her share of misogyny.

She is not alone. The following is a verbatim message I received last week following one of my posts on Twitter regarding the use of toilets by transgendered individuals. “Sheila, you’re a disgusting, old, ugly, dyke-looking, treasonous piece of shit who should be thrown into the sea with Trudeau. Fuck you, Fuck Trudeau & the LGBT+ pride freaks. Rap the sick LGBT flag around your neck, tie it to a tree branch, and do humanity a favor. Can’t wait for Freedom/Justice Convoy.”

The federal government finally stepped in last week to introduce legislation governing online harms. Justice Minister Arif Virani specifically targeted three obligations, including “a duty to protect children, a duty to act responsibly and the duty to remove the most egregious content.”

Virani was surrounded by supporters of the proposed legislation, including mothers of teenagers on both coasts whose daughters were bullied online to the point where they committed suicide.

The proposed legislation is far narrower than an earlier version tabled in 2019.

The original bill died when the election was called.

The updated version includes the creation of a digital safety commission, a five-person panel with the power to enforce the rules. The commission would also provide a venue for investigation of complaints about online violations targeted at bullying children and/or posting private images without consent.

Carol Todd, the mother of Amanda Todd, a British Columbia teenager who committed suicide because of online threats, said the legislation was a long time coming.

She was joined at the press conference by the mother of Nova Scotia teen Rehtaeh Parsons. According to Leah Parsons, her daughter was driven to her death after being gang-raped and having the images posted online.

The proposed law requires social media platforms to have mechanisms in place to remove two kinds of offensive material: that which sexually victimizes children, and the posting of intimate images without consent.

Platforms have 24 hours to remove offending posts or face financial punishments. Fines are to be linked to the size and profitability of the platforms.

Virani insists the legislation would not affect free speech on the internet, however awful it might be. So social media attacks on politicians like the former mayor of Gatineau will not likely be stopped.

However, the newly-created commission will have the power to oversee the legislation, which will also mean that hate speech on the internet will be facing legal scrutiny and review.

The former Facebook data scientist who went public on its refusal to delete nefarious content endangering children lauded the proposed legislation.

Interviewed on CTV, Frances Haugen said it was among the best pieces of legislation on the matter she has seen.

But that didn’t stop Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre from opposing the legislation before he had even read it.

Poilievre immediately labelled it “Justin Trudeau’s latest attack on free speech,” and characterized the legislation as “woke authoritarian agenda.”

Social media opponents moved quickly online to post pictures of the Liberal Party covered in a Nazi flag, claiming the legislation is a first step toward a takeover of the whole country.

Poilievre attacked the prime minister personally, saying because Trudeau partied in “blackface” he had no right to speak on the issue of hate speech.

He vowed to kill the bill before it was introduced, but was silent following Virani’s press conference.

Poilievre himself has spoken out in support of a Senate bill that would require online age verification to access pornography, so he obviously sees some benefit in protecting minors on the internet.

It is impossible to see how his party would benefit from opposing this bill, but apparently his hatred of the prime minister appears to be more politically motivating than hate speech on the internet.

The current bill is a softer version of the 2019 proposal precisely because the government does not want to fall prey to accusations of stifling free speech.

According to Virani, the awful stuff will still be lawful.

But now people will have to think twice before telling me to hang myself.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.

By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on July 31, 2023.

OTTAWA—Justin Trudeau has rolled the dice.

Last week’s massive cabinet shuffle makes one thing certain: the prime minister plans to lead the Liberal Party into the next election.

The ballot question he is aiming for is the economy, and Trudeau is banking on enough political runway to convince Canadians that the best masters of the economy are already in the job.

The shuffle is a not-so-tacit admission that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is hitting the mark when he travels the country on his so-called “Axe the Tax” tour.

It matters little that the majority of Canadians are actually getting money back because of the way the carbon tax remittance has been structured. Canadians are reeling from rising prices and the hike in national interest rates. Global issues may be responsible for the cash crunch, as Trudeau mentioned during his press conference lauding the new cabinet team. But all politics is local.

Polls show that local politics right now is hitting the Liberals hard. On the same day as Trudeau announced the massive change in cabinet, Abacus Data released a poll showing the Conservatives were 10 points ahead of the Liberals. Pollara put out a poll earlier in the month claiming the Tories were 12 points ahead among Indigenous voters.

Trendlines are clear. Tories are climbing and the Liberals are lagging. The shuffle is supposed to staunch the political bloodletting.

Highlights included the appointment of Arif Virani, Canada’s first Muslim attorney general and Rechi Valdez the first Filipina woman in a Canadian cabinet. Original reports cited the appointment of a first Filipino, but that was amended, as the first Filipino member of cabinet was Rey Pagtakhan in the cabinet of Jean Chrétien.

The demographic changes to cabinet are pretty clear evidence that the shuffle is intended to launch an election team. As well as specific nominations in the Muslim and Filipino community, the prime minister also named a Tamil Canadian as minister responsible for Crown-Indigenous relations.

Gary Anandasangaree will have big shoes to fill because outgoing minister Marc Miller developed an excellent relationship with Indigenous communities, as both portfolios he has held in the past eight years involved work with those communities. Indigenous Services Minister Patty Hajdu has regional experience with Indigenous peoples because of her home riding in Thunder Bay-Superior North, Ont.

Anandasangaree is a risky choice because his urban Scarborough background is not exactly a hotbed of Indigenous politics. However, he has a reputation as being accessible and active, and worked on an Indigenous consultation process for the Rouge National Urban Park.

He wouldn’t be the first minister to build a relationship with Indigenous peoples from scratch. But the popularity of Miller and Hajdu were undeniable, and, given the government’s commitment to reconciliation, the decision to make a change is potentially tricky.

The Trudeau inner circle of cabinet makers must be banking on the fact that these new appointments will buttress the party in areas of the country where they will be in pitched battles with the Conservatives. Suburban GTA ridings are always a dogfight, so the appointments of Anandasangaree and Valdez could have an impact on potentially tight races.

Trudeau is also trying to change the “change” message. With three terms under his belt, the prime minister is well known to the public and somewhat shopworn.

As my mother taught me, politics is the only job where the more experience you get, the more people want to get rid of you, and in three terms, you make enemies who want you out.

The change narrative is the movement when governments are voted out. It doesn’t matter what kind of a job they have done; their political time is up. In most instances, people vote governments out, they do not vote opposition parties in.

A new government is given the benefit of the doubt. The thinking is, with this sizeable change in positions, there is an element of newness surrounding the team. While that is true, there is no element of newness in the leader.

Trudeau is obviously banking on the fact the surly side of the Conservative leader will convince enough voters that Poilievre is not the right person to lead the country. While Trudeau may no longer be loved by all, his opponent has never been loved by many.

If the ballot question is the economy, the prime minister stands a fighting chance of re-election. If the question remains a need for change, his bold cabinet move won’t mean much at the ballot box.

This past week, the next election got started.

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.