The internal bickering has increased over the summer, but the reality is there is very little chance of ousting Pierre Poilievre unless the caucus decides to turn on him.
By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on August 3, 2026.
OTTAWA—Polls are for dogs.
That famous phrase was originally coined by then-prime minister John Diefenbaker when he was questioned about lagging personal popularity.
Diefenbaker was originally elected with the largest majority in the history of Canadian politics. In 1958, the Progressive Conservative Party swept to power under his leadership with 208 out of 265 seats.
That remained the largest majority in Canadian history until 1984, when prime minister Brian Mulroney secured 211 seats out of 282 seats. Diefenbaker was also the only Tory leader to form government between 1935 and 1979.
But after securing the first majority, he managed only minority governments in two subsequent elections after which his own party turned their guns inward. The Conservatives subsequently secured his resignation at a leadership convention including Diefenbaker. He received a humiliating rebuff by members of his own party, coming in fifth in a vote that selected Robert Stanfield as leader.
Diefenbaker’s famous phrase is used by politicians when they are facing popularity issues with the public. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has used the phrase recently.
With the polling numbers presented to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre this week, he may want to repeat the phrase. But the leadership convention held by his own party last January gave Poilievre an overwhelming mandate.
The public has been less kind. In the Nanos monthly poll released on July 29, Poilievre is literally slipping into the teens when it comes to the number of Canadians who want him as prime minister. Only 18.2 per cent want him, while 54 per cent favour current Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Carney’s personal popularity is pulling the Liberals up while Poilievre is dragging his party down. Liberal popular vote stands at 44.7 per cent while Conservative support stands at 29.5 per cent.
The Conservative base is solid at almost 30 per cent, but the other problem the party is facing is the inefficient distribution of its vote. With overwhelming support in Alberta and Saskatchewan, the party needs a lot more than 30 per cent to win an election. The last time the Conservatives outstripped the Liberals in popular vote was during the 2021 race between then-leaders Erin O’Toole and Justin Trudeau.
O’Toole’s 34.1 per cent of the popular vote managed to secure 121 seats while Trudeau’s 31.8 secured 156 seats. The gap between popular vote and electoral success is much wider for the Conservatives, so the dip below 30 per cent must concern Conservative supporters.
The internal bickering has increased over the summer, but the reality is there is very little chance of ousting Poilievre unless the caucus decides to turn on him.
Unlike all other federal parties, the Conservatives have agreed to an internal mechanism which allows a caucus majority to get rid of the leader without a party vote. The Reform Act triggers a secret caucus vote when a majority of members have signed a resignation demand letter.
It is a similar process to that in the United Kingdom which seems to go through leaders like toilet paper. The country has lived under six prime ministers during the last decade. During the same period, Canada had one.
Internal party pressure forced five of them to resign while David Cameron, the author of the Brexit fiasco, quit when the country decided to leave the European Union.
In Poilievre’s case, he has a better chance of keeping the caucus onside because, unlike O’Toole, he is politically aligned with the large majority of pro-convoy, pro-Trump backers.
In O’Toole’s case, he was too liberal for many in the caucus. But it was that centrist approach that could have helped the Conservatives form government by attracting the rest of the population.
Poilievre still has the caucus but, if current numbers hold, his path to prime minister is fraught with problems.
Carney has called three byelections for the end of August. The outcome of those elections may well be a trigger for tiring Tories to pull the plug on Poilievre.
The Conservative Party currently held one of the three seats, in Quebec. But that MP quit to join the Senate. If the numbers in this byelection are as bad as some are predicting, concern will be building in the caucus in areas where a comfortable Tory majority doesn’t exist.
If the Ontario and Quebec byelections go big for Carney, it could be a catalyst for Tory leadership change.
Some Liberals are secretly hoping that does not happen as Poilievre’s national unpopularity is working in their favour.
On the Tory side, the leader must keep going. But the adage, “Polls are for dogs” has some people barking.
Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.