Current polling shows Prime Minister Mark Carney wins on global leadership. But support for the Conservatives remains strong on domestic issues. And at the end of the day, Canadians usually vote on pocketbook issues.
By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on May 4, 2026.
OTTAWA—Former prime minister John Diefenbaker would often claim: “Polls are for dogs.”
In his first election, in 1957, Dief the Chief was elected in a minority government, but his second election in 1958 resulted in the largest Progressive Conservative majority in the history of Canada. Winning 208 of 265 seats, Dief’s record was unparalleled to this day.
Even during the Brian Mulroney sweep of 1984, the percentage in seat numbers could not rival that of Diefenbaker.
So why was Dief so disdainful of polls?
Diefenbaker personally experienced the fragility of political popularity. He went from being wildly popular in the 1958 sweep to being drummed out of the leadership at a bitter national convention only nine years later.
Diefenbaker learned the hard way that polls can be as fickle as the Canadian voter.
The polling numbers tracking Prime Minister Mark Carney today are eerily similar to those of a popular Dief.
With a first minority election under his belt, one year later, Carney could arguably be swept to a large majority if a general election were held today.
Instead, the Liberals’ new majority means that the prime minister will have three more years to build the “Canada Strong” theme that he has promoted in his first year of office.
Polling numbers greatly favour Carney when viewed in comparison to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
In the Nanos poll published last week, overall support for the Liberals stood at 45 per cent with Conservatives polled at 32 per cent.
When it comes to personal popularity, Carney outstrips Poilievre by 22 per cent.
Carney is also ahead of Poilievre in every demographic except that of younger men between the ages of 35 and 54. In that group, Poilievre enjoys a three per cent advantage at 45 per cent favourability.
Despite politicians’ claim that they don’t watch the polls, most do. There are a few reasons why the prime minister should take note of those numbers.
The group that Poilievre manages to win over is the group most closely aligned with issues Canadians are concerned about.
Canadians’ biggest concern these days is job jitters, and that is a shift from previous Nanos numbers which identified the Trump factor as No. 1.
Both are interrelated. Obviously, concerns about Canadian jobs stem from the decision by American president Donald Trump to close off northern borders and threaten key Canadian industries with punishing tariffs.
Carney’s economic announcement of more than $6-billion in skilled trades and apprenticeships last week will definitely seek to assuage job concerns.
Not coincidentally, the target group of weaker support for Carney, those younger men, will also benefit from the combination of mega-project investment and skilled-trade opportunities.
Like Poilievre, Carney has been pretty good at sloganeering. The promotion of a “Team Canada Strong” serves a dual purpose. It connotes strength in the national government, and addresses the simmering separation questions that will be coming to the fore in an upcoming Alberta referendum.
Unlike Poilievre, Carney’s personal popularity has not yet taken a hit. In another Angus Reid poll last week, 30 per cent of past Conservative voters want to replace Poilievre.
His caucus has been publicly supportive with recent sorties of support from Members of Parliament. But that could change quickly if his party rejects him. While 60 per cent of Canadians have a negative view of Poilievre, 57 per cent of Tories think he should stay on as leader.
But dissident numbers rose from 18 per cent last August to 30 per cent in April. If that trend continues, Poilievre could see his own job at risk.
If Poilievre were no longer the Conservative leader, numbers for Carney would definitely be affected.
Current polling shows Carney wins on international leadership. But support for the Conservatives remains strong on domestic issues.
And, at the end of the day, Canadians usually vote on pocketbook issues.
Perhaps the most relevant number in the Nanos polling is the move away from concern about Trumpian international uncertainty to worries about personal pocketbook issues.
Poilievre scores well when it comes to which leader is most focused on these issues.
If the Tories own the affordability question, and they decide to replace Poilievre with another leader, the halo currently worn by Carney could definitely be tarnished.
The deep dive into polling numbers is being done by all politicians, especially those who say they don’t care about polls.
Carney’s need to work on his standing with younger men has already been acknowledged. Expect more Liberal news on affordability and jobs to come.
Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.