While current popular support trends remain close between the two parties, Mark Carney’s personal popularity is in the stratosphere relative to Pierre Poilievre’s.
By Sheila Copps
First published in The Hill Times on November 24, 2025.
OTTAWA–The drama of a budget vote had every political animal in the country on the edge of their seat.
And in the end, it was a cliffhanger. But in reality, the outcome should not have been a surprise to anyone.
Having just come off an election this past spring, there was zero appetite to go back to the polls for most political parties.
The only leader who could have benefited from an election is Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. A ‘no’ vote would have meant that his mandated January 2026 party review would be cancelled.
Poilievre is probably feeling fairly comfortable, given the party review vote will be held in the middle of winter in Calgary. That is the basis for his strength, and much of his support is from Members of Parliament whose purpose in politics is ideological.
Approximately 40 members of the Conservative caucus are rabidly anti-choice, while another three dozen have expressed their opposition to abortion during the election.
Politicians who are elected because of an ideology are less likely to care about winning.
The party members who do care about winning are circling the wagons in anticipation of the January opportunity to replace the leader.
Former party insider Dimitri Soudas has been openly critical of Poilievre, and as last week’s events proved, Ontario Premier Doug Ford is also no friend of the official opposition leader.
When Ford was asked about a potential federal election, he basically threw his federal cousins under the bus. The premier said so many nice things about Prime Minister Mark Carney that an observer would have thought they shared a party.
Some have even written that Carney’s budget is progressive conservative in nature.
Ford is obviously well-organized in Ontario, and Soudas’ political roots in Quebec are deep. Both of these provinces are pivotal to winning any federal election. While Conservatives in Quebec and Ontario are not ideologues, they are used to winning at the provincial and federal levels.
If they have decided that Poilievre is not a winnable candidate, they could cause problems for him in the January vote.
Hence a federal election would have allowed Poilievre to focus on the external opposition to the government, not the internal opposition within his own ranks.
The New Democrats are in the middle of their own leadership race, so the potential of an election would be unthinkable for them.
Even though they publicly opposed the budget, they allowed it to survive by securing two abstentions. NDP abstainers included Lori Idlout and Gord Johns. Idlout did not want to vote against the budget because it included a major investment in her riding of Nunavut.
Interim NDP leader Don Davies told the media after the vote that his party did not want for force an election; therefore, he approved the two abstentions.
As for the Tories, one of the abstainers, Shannon Stubbs, said she acting on doctor’s orders while the other, Matt Jeneroux, has already disclosed his dissatisfaction with his party by announcing he will not be seeking re-election.
Some thought he might cross the floor to the Liberals, following the example of Nova Scotian Chris d’Entremont who left the Conservative caucus on Nov. 4 because he said he didn’t feel represented there. Rumours swirled about other potential floor crossings, but none have materialized to date.
The Liberals will have to hope that some occur because, in minority government, there could be similar, but unsuccessful votes in the next budget, or on a supply motion in the fall.
Poilievre isn’t the only one hoping that he wins his leadership review in the New Year.
Most Liberals believe he is their ticket to remain in government.
While current popular support trends remain close between the two parties, Carney’s personal popularity is in the stratosphere relative to Poilievre’s.
If the budget vote had failed on Nov. 17, there was a good chance that the current polling numbers could have led to a Liberal majority government.
Carney looked cool, calm, and collected on the day of the cliffhanger, probably because he was in a no-lose situation.
Had the election been called, his personal popularity would definitely have outstripped that of the leader of the opposition.
A budget win gives him a few more months to prove to the Canadian people that he is the leader best positioned to pivot away from dependence on economic integration with the United States.
Carney’s global view, and business experience have helped capture the confidence of Canadians.
As long as Poilievre is leading the Tories, Carney has good reason to smile.
Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister and a former deputy prime minister. Follow her on Twitter at @Sheila_Copps.
